Crypto Fear and Greed Index Nears Neutral Ground — Market Talk

1502 ET - CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index is drawing closer to neutral territory, which would be the first time since May the sentiment is that positive. CoinMarketCap assesses the score at 38 out-of 100, which is a reading slightly outside of the 40-60 range for neutral sentiment. Sentiment has been on a gradual improvement, gaining 12 percent since the early days of June. Bitcoin prices are trading up 1.5%, trading above the threshold of near-term resistance at up 1.4% to $65.1k. Ethereum are up 2.1% to over $1,900, and XRP climbs 1.8% to $1.11. ([email protected])1134 ET - Bitcoin ETFs are back to winning ways after spending most of the previous month on a losing streak, with fund money seen exiting those ETFs in favor of more-lucrative holdings like AI stocks. These ETFs have recorded net inflows for four consecutive sessions, according to data from CoinGlass. Friday's trading resulted in a net inflow of $132.3 million. Retail buying is seen as having come back to the crypto space, but institutional money has been slow to re-enter positions held earlier this year in cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is up 0.4%, while ethereum is up 0.8% and XRP is up 0.5%. ([email protected])1132 ET - Continued transatlantic trade threats reinforce the notion that the European Union must reject the U.S. probe into Germany over drug pricing, the DIHK German Chambers of Commerce's trade chief Volker Treier says. The U.S. in June said it would investigate the German government's plans to reduce spending on pharmaceuticals. There is great concern in German industry that the U.S. could soon impose further tariffs, Treier says. The EU should insist on compliance with the EU-U.S. trade deal agreed on last year, he says. "European regulatory sovereignty must not become a bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington." The EU shouldn't forget its long-term goal of eliminating the WTO-incompatible U.S. tariffs either, Treier notes. ([email protected])1115 ET - The European Union's trade deal agreed a year ago with the U.S. has failed to achieve its goal of stable transatlantic economic relations, the DIHK German Chambers of Industry and Commerce's Volker Treier says. The deal, which places a tariff cap of 15% on most EU goods imports to the U.S., hasn't stopped companies facing new tariff threats, additional bureaucratic hurdles, and legal uncertainty, Treier says. "As long as conditions can change at any time, investments will fall short of their potential and long-term business decisions will be postponed." To diversify the EU's trade, agreements with Indonesia and Australia should be ratified swiftly, he says. Talks with Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines must be at the top of the agenda, he adds. ([email protected])1106 ET - Cryptocurrencies are under pressure as markets are expecting at least one Fed rate hike this year. "Markets continue to price at least one rate hike before the end of the year and short dated real yields remain elevated," says Stephen Coltman of 21shares in a note. Coltman points to any slowdown in AI business as a potential point where rate hike expectations may fade in lieu of cuts, which would in turn benefit cryptocurrencies and other assets. Bitcoin is down 0.3%, while ethereum falls 0.1%, XRP is down 0.4%, solana is flat, and dogecoin is down 0.2%. Zcash, which has been charging back toward the $600 mark, is down 3.5% today. ([email protected])1050 ET - Bitcoin falls 0.2% to around $64,400 as a rally that pushed prices back over $65,000 last week appears to falter. $65k is seen as a major resistance marker for bitcoin, says Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets in a note. He attributes the cooling of the push higher to "limited liquidity and broader risk-off positioning," but says that bitcoin managing to maintain a price level above $65k in the near-future could signal a new leg-up for the cryptocurrency. Ethereum is flat around $1,866, XRP is down 0.3% to $1.09, and solana is up 0.3% to $76.28. ([email protected])1046 ET - The U.K.'s high spending on the welfare bill could continue to drive up inflation and keep interest rates high, Eurizon SLJ Capital CEO Stephen Li Jen says in a note. New U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces the challenge of controlling the country's high cost of living, Jen says. Investors price in a total of 40 basis points of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England in 2026 as inflation concerns stay high, LSEG data show. ([email protected])1039 ET - The dollar has failed to benefit from higher oil prices in July as markets focus on interest-rate differentials, Standard Chartered's Steve Englander says in a note. Since the resumption of U.S.-Iran strikes, the dollar has dropped. If the market expects the Federal Reserve to be less reactive to higher oil prices on the assumption of little or temporary inflation impact, the dollar could fall further in the near term, he says. Standard Chartered still expects dollar strength over the medium term. "However, we need to see either a clearer cyclical rebound in the U.S. economy or a more definitive upward move in equilibrium real [inflation-adjusted] interest rates before dollar strength emerges."The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 100.95.([email protected])1032 ET - The Bank of Canada might have to consider rate increases later this year should the military conflict in the Mideastbecome a prolonged affair, says Ottawa-based Signal49. The research group says it reckons the BOC will remain on hold in September, given a slowdown in price pressures as suggested in the June CPI report. "With prospects for an enduring peace agreement highly uncertain and oil prices trending higher since early July, the risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the upside," Signal49 says, in laying out its case for a possible late-year rate hike. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0959 ET - The Fed is likely to stay on hold at its July meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Markets are pricing in an 85.6% chance of leaving interest rates unchanged. Some Fed officials last week cautioned that inflation poses a bigger risk to the central bank's dual mandate. Still, by December, markets are pricing in a 41.8% chance of a hike. "The real discussion is whether the Fed will start a proper hiking cycle, which is typically delivered through at least 3 hikes, or not hiking at all," BofA Securities says.([email protected])0959 ET - Canada's inflation report for June points to limited evidence of a pass-through of higher energy costs to goods such as food, says Ali Jaffery, chief economist at KPMG Canada. The June report indicates inflation slowed in June to 2.8% from 3.2% in prior month. Jaffery says economic literature suggests the pass-through could take a year or more to peak, but the slow start is encouraging. He says the worries about good prices accelerating due to the combination of higher energy prices and US tariffs are not being borne out. He adds there was "considerable softness" in the CPI basket excluding travel services, which rose in June due to the World Cup games held in Toronto and Vancouver. ([email protected], @paulvieira)0951 ET - Higher energy and food prices are likely to keep total inflation in Canada near 3% for the remainder of the year, says Michael Davenport from Oxford Economics. The end of the US-Iran ceasefire and the resumption of military attacks in the Mideast poses a significant risk to Canada's CPI outlook, Davenport adds. Offsetting this risk, however, is the amount of excess slack in the economy and continued easing in shelter inflation, which Davenport contends should keep core CPI at bay and the Bank of Canada on hold. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)