Bitcoin surges 40% from July low, reigniting $100,000 speculation

Bitcoin has staged one of its most dramatic recoveries of the year, rallying roughly 40% from its July 1 intraday low of approximately $57,748 to trade in the $79,000 to $81,000 range in early September. The move has predictably resurrected the question that refuses to die: can BTC reclaim $100,000?The answer, at least according to prediction markets, is "probably not this year." Platforms like Kalshi and ForecastEx currently price the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100K by the end of 2026 at around 28%.Bitcoin ground higher through July and August before accelerating into the current range, with some intraday prints pushing above $82,000. August alone delivered a roughly 25% gain, making it Bitcoin's strongest August since 2017.That August performance also carried a technical milestone. Bitcoin reclaimed levels above its 50-month moving average for the first time since the prior crypto winter.For context, Bitcoin's 2026 all-time high sits at approximately $126,198. So even after a scorching two-month rally, the price remains more than 35% below its peak. Year-to-date performance through early September is still negative, a reminder that this rally is more about digging out of a hole than breaking new ground.While Bitcoin's 40% bounce has captured most of the attention, Ethereum has been the quieter, more aggressive mover. ETH appreciated roughly 56% over the same July-to-early-September stretch, outperforming Bitcoin by a wide margin on a percentage basis.Two forces appear to be doing the heavy lifting. The first is institutional capital flowing through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which continue to serve as a convenient on-ramp for traditional finance allocators who want Bitcoin exposure without touching a crypto exchange. ETF inflows have remained a consistent source of buying pressure throughout the summer, providing a floor under prices even during the worst of the July drawdown.The second factor is macroeconomic. With central bank policy expectations shifting and broader market conditions evolving, Bitcoin has benefited from the same tailwinds pushing risk assets higher across traditional markets.Getting from $80,000 to $100,000 requires another 25% move. A 28% probability on prediction markets translates to roughly 3-to-1 odds against.On the other side of the ledger, the gap between current prices and the $126,198 all-time high means there's a thick layer of supply overhead. Investors who bought near the highs and have been underwater for months may use any rally toward six figures as an exit opportunity, creating selling pressure precisely when bulls need momentum most.