Coinbase Q3 earnings face falling estimates: Can USDC stem the slide?

Coinbase Global is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Thursday, October 29, after the market closes. non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 and revenue of $1.22B, with investors watching crypto trading activity, subscription revenue, and cost controls amid weaker earnings estimates.Over the past two years, Coinbase beat EPS estimates in three of eight quarters and revenue estimates in two. Estimates have weakened over the past three months, with 14 downward versus three upward and 17 downward versus two upward revenue revisions.The company expects third-quarter subscription and services revenue of $500M–$580M, compared with $555.1M in the second quarter.Record USDC balances held on Coinbase products, which reached $20B in , could support revenue, while transaction income remains sensitive to crypto prices and trading volumes.Coinbase also reported ~$130M in transaction revenue through July 26, but cautioned against extrapolating partial-quarter activity. Prediction markets, which grew 106% QoQ in the second-quarter, offer another potential growth driver as the company expands beyond traditional crypto trading.Recent developments include the launch of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on Coinbase's retail and institutional platforms, a stablecoin-backed card partnership with Marqeta , and the integration of USDC as the default stablecoin on Samsung Wallet. These initiatives expand its stablecoin and payments ecosystem, although trading activity remains a key earnings driver.Cost discipline will also be in focus. The company expects third-quarter adjusted expenses of $980M–$1.08B, following a 14% workforce reduction announced in May.The company ended the second-quarter with $8.6B in cash and cash equivalents and has continued using share buybacks to offset stock-based compensation dilution.Coinbase shares traded near $158.38 on Wednesday, down about 1.68% on the day and 29.67% year to date, underperforming the S&P 500's (SP500) 12.81% gain.Seeking Alpha analysts and Wall Street rate the company 'buy,' while Quant assigns it a 'sell.'The report will test whether stablecoin growth, new products, and lower expenses can offset softer trading activity and pressure on earnings.Content provided by Seeking Alpha is intended for information purposes only, and that Seeking Alpha does not offer any personalist investment advice and is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, US investment adviser or investment bank.