Bitwise raises Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036

Bitwise Asset Management has a new number for Bitcoin, and it is a big one: $1.6 million by 2036.The figure comes from the firm's updated Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. It implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate from Bitcoin's current approximate price of $83,500.The update was published on October 28, 2026. It was authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen.This is an upgrade, not a debut. Bitwise's previous forecast called for Bitcoin to reach $1.3 million by 2035, which worked out to a 28.3% CAGR.The thesis rests on a familiar trio of arguments. First, Bitcoin's supply is limited. Second, institutional adoption keeps growing. Third, rising sovereign debt and currency debasement risks are pushing investors toward hard assets.Bitwise frames the opportunity through what it calls the store-of-value market, defined as Bitcoin and gold combined. The firm expects Bitcoin to capture 25% of that market.The report also projects Bitcoin to be the best-performing institutional asset over the next decade.Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin's average volatility at 27.8% over the forecast period, and it expects volatility to decline.The firm also projects Bitcoin's correlation to US stocks at 0.43. Correlation runs from -1 to 1, where 1 means two assets move in lockstep and 0 means they ignore each other entirely.On allocation, Bitwise expects institutional investors may put approximately 1% to 5% of their portfolios into Bitcoin.Bitwise identifies several risks that could derail the trajectory. Technological disruption tops the list. The firm points to quantum computing and AI as potential threats.Regulation is the other major concern. Bitwise notes that regulatory changes could reverse the current adoption trends.For institutional allocators, the Bitwise update offers a ready-made argument for a small Bitcoin position. The 1% to 5% allocation range is designed to be digestible.For retail investors, the takeaway is more nuanced. Bitwise is an asset manager with crypto products, so it has an obvious interest in Bitcoin's long-term success.The store-of-value framing is the assumption to watch most closely. The entire model hinges on Bitcoin taking a quarter of a market it shares with gold.The flagged risks also deserve attention beyond the footnotes. Progress in quantum computing and any shift in the regulatory climate are the two variables most likely to break the model.The jump from a 28.3% to a 34.3% implied CAGR shows how sensitive these projections are to their starting point.