Bitcoin Is Trading Like Gold, Not the Nasdaq — And Right Now That's the Problem

Bitcoin and gold have both given back much of last week’s gains. The two assets had climbed in step through August as investors piled into the debasement trade.However, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday broke that run.Debasement Trade Powered the August RallyThe rally in both assets began in the bond market. The US Treasury buyback cap for longer-dated debt to at least $4 billion.Investors responded by crowding into alternative assets and moving out of fiat currencies. The MSCI global gold miners index gained 43% in August, its.Fund flows told the same story. Gold and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds together drew $7 billion across five trading days, a record for that window.That combination pushed gold to its highest level since mid-May. Price hit an intra-day high of $4,697 an ounce on Tuesday.Bitcoin rode the same trade. The asset touched $81,354 on Binance last week, its highest level in about 3 months.Both have since reversed. Gold traded around $4,432 on Monday, down 5.6% from Tuesday’s peak.BTC has taken a similar hit. The asset changed hands near $77,411, down almost 5% from last week’s high. The drop follows Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. to get the latest news as it happensWarsh Turns Hawkish and Hike Odds JumpThe Fed Chair used his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday to sharpen his inflation message. He gave a more hawkish reading of the economy. “Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices,” he said. Rate markets repriced within hours, lifting the odds of a September increase. CME FedWatch data now puts the probability of a September 16 move to a 3.75%-4.00% target range at 62.6%. That is up from 57% a day earlier and 39.9% a week ago.Higher policy rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that generate no yield. Gold and Bitcoin both fit that description, which explains why the two fell in step.Does the Gold-Bitcoin Link Still Hold?The pullback has not broken the pattern. Both assets declined together, which is what a shared macro driver looks like in practice.Grayscale flagged the shift days before the selloff. Its research found that Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold climbed above 50% this year, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from over 60% to roughly 33%.Zach Pandl, the asset manager’s Head of Research, argued the move reflects investors treating Bitcoin as a monetary hedge rather than a leveraged bet on technology stocks.That new identity cuts both ways. An asset that trades as a monetary hedge rallies on debasement fears — and sells off when the Fed turns hawkish, regardless of what tech stocks do.Meanwhile, some of the retreat may also be ordinary profit-taking after a steep run. Both assets remain far above where they started the month.The September 16 meeting is now the test. If Warsh delivers the hike traders are pricing, the debasement trade will face its first genuine headwind since the bond selloff set it in motion.Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights