XRP at a Critical Juncture as On-Chain Data and Charts Tell Different Stories
XRP has declined 11.4% so far in December, putting the asset on track to close the year in the red and ending its two-year streak of annual gains. The downturn reflects weakening market momentum, with on-chain data indicating that selling pressure is intensifying as inflows into Binance rise.Despite this bearish backdrop, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. They argue that XRP could be setting up for a recovery similar to its 2017 cycle.Rising Binance Inflows Signal Growing Sell-Side Pressure on XRPXRP has struggled alongside the broader market this quarter, posting consecutive monthly losses. Data from CryptoRank shows the token fell 11.9% in October, followed by a sharper 13.8% decline in November.The weakness has continued into December, with XRP down 11.4% so far this month. Amid this downturn, analyst Darkfost highlighted signs of growing sell-side pressure.On-chain data reveals a sharp increase in XRP inflows to Binance beginning December 15, with daily deposits ranging between 35 million XRP and peaking at 116 million XRP on December 19. This surge followed a period of relatively stable and moderate exchange inflows. “These inflows are generally interpreted as a potential intent to sell, especially when they increase rapidly,” Darkfost stated. According to the analyst, this shift also signals a change in investor behavior. “While a large portion of the market had been following a holding strategy since October, the trend over the past two weeks points to a move toward profit taking for older positions, as well as capitulation and loss selling from more recent entrants.” A recent BeInCrypto analysis also found that wallets holding XRP for 2 to 3 years declined sharply from 14.26% of supply on November 26 to about 5.66% on December 26.Lastly, Darkfost added that as long as exchange inflows remain elevated or continue to increase, XRP could face challenges to enter a genuine accumulation phase. The analyst warned that sustained sell-side pressure could prolong the current correction and even potentially push prices lower.Will XRP Stage a 2017-Style Recovery?Despite this, several market watchers remain optimistic about the coin’s outlook. One analyst pointed out that a potential Adam and Eve pattern may be forming on XRP’s 1-hour chart.The Adam and Eve pattern is a technical reversal formation that signals a possible shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. It consists of two distinct lows: the first, known as the “Adam” bottom, is sharp and V-shaped, reflecting panic-driven selling.The second, the “Eve” bottom, is more rounded, indicating stabilizing price action and reduced selling pressure. A confirmed breakout above the pattern’s neckline is typically viewed as a bullish signal, suggesting that buyers are regaining control.Moreover, some analysts argue that XRP’s current market structure closely mirrors its price behavior in 2017. “Measured move for XRP says $15+. Prices, after breaking out in 2017 followed through completely on its measured move and prices, with a recently highly similar breakout, looks to be right on track to do the same. This hints at another near 8X in an over 690% increase,” Javon Marks wrote. However, it’s worth noting that such comparisons rely heavily on historical symmetry, which may not always repeat under different market conditions.As 2025 draws to a close, XRP remains at a crossroads. Rising exchange inflows indicate sell-side pressure, while technical indicators and historical comparisons suggest a potential recovery. Whether bullish signals can outweigh the weakening on-chain fundamentals will likely become clearer in the coming weeks.