Trade war vs record M2 money supply: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April.BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term resistance trend line without success as trade war concerns dictate traders’ expectations.Tariffs are the key macroeconomic topic of the week as risk assets brace for potential surprise headlines.Bitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week, while Strategy indicates it has purchased the dip.Despite tariff pressures, the weakness of the US dollar could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and risky assets.Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high and rising; will Bitcoin follow history and replicate its past?Bulls battle a key BTC price resistance lineWith traders on the lookout for tariff-related volatility this week, BTC price analysis is zooming out. closed last week up 6.7%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.Next, however, comes the real test, breaking beyond a downward-sloping trend line that has capped the upside for months.$BTC - #Bitcoin: I’m watching this chart closely. We might be ready. pic.twitter.com/Dtv1jkrzkP“Rejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,” trader Bitbull wrote in his latest post on the topic on X. “If the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.”Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also eyeing the trend line as a breakout proves hard to confirm.“Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” he told X followers over the weekend.“However BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.”Popular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets, depending on the outcome of the trend line retest.“$BTC might push to $88K — but don’t get too comfy,” he cautioned.“Could be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95K–$100K isn’t far.”Tariff talk keeps markets on edgeA quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the ongoing trade war continues to dominate.With China in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility should more surprises involving trade tariffs surface.The weekend saw snap relief in that respect as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for key tech products. As a result, Bitcoin climbed to 11-day highs above $86,000.Subsequent indications that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocks’ futures, while retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.“We think the ‘tariff exemptions’ announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X reaction. “The goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.”Kobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later.“Bonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,” it added.Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week.“It’s the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on April 13.“The uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.”Bitcoin ETF outflow “barely registers”A sign of how turbulent last week was came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).In one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows passed $750 million.For network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about.Zooming out, he noted that even a nine-figure drawdown such as this makes hardly any difference to the overall investment pool that the ETFs have created in little more than a year.“Last week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows). Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,” he told X followers. “That's how big Bitcoin has become. That's how sticky these investments are.”Among major investors seeking to “buy the dip,” meanwhile, was business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend.“No Tariffs on Orange Dots,” he wrote in an X post alongside a chart of Strategy’s acquisitions. Whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious.A survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it.“This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,” Kobeissi wrote while reporting on the findings. “Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.”Dollar dive gives risk assets hope of reliefThe US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week.The trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see.The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more.Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years pic.twitter.com/MJ8wvvJuY2While far from constant, Bitcoin’s relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses, albeit with a delay of several months.To that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a repeat of events from 2017, resulting in all-time highs at the end of the year.Another chart uploaded to X over the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter.The last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022.“I got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,” Bitcoindata21 summarized.A bull market rebound in the making?On longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls.The global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs.“Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,” analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a dedicated X post on the phenomenon this weekend. “This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.”The post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires.Before that, however, there may be a final opportunity to “buy the dip.”“Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,” Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged.Earlier this month, the analyst predicted a “big M2 influx” incoming, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.