The Block Research’s Analysts: 2026 Predictions
StevenTom Lee’s Bitmine will execute its first ETH sell by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The sale will open the gates for more DATs to also sell their assets, leading to more depressed price sentiment. Bitcoin Dominance will remain above 50% throughout 2026. Polymarket and Base will launch their tokens and be top-10 market-cap coins on a fully diluted basis. Base will see an onslaught of mobile-first crypto apps. A couple of mini bull cycle metas similar to 2025, which will include: RWA coins, prediction market coins, and mobile-first projects. Tether and Co. launches a US crypto exchange. Robinhood launches perpetual futures products for crypto. EdenStablecoin velocity will explode as regulated payment processors adopt stablecoins for settlements. Total stablecoin supply will exceed $400B, while USDT’s market share declines. The number of stablecoins with $1B+ market caps will reach 20. Total asset value in non-stablecoin RWAs will exceed $30B. Widely traded commodities beyond gold will be tokenized and see modest traction. Perp DEXs will list equity and commodity perp contracts that generate meaningful volume. The DEX-to-CEX volume ratio in both spot and perps will hover around 20%. RFQ-based DEXs will emerge. Polymarket and Kalshi will at least triple their annual volume and go head-to-head competing for exclusive distribution partnerships. At least one of them will launch its own chain.Plasma will be a top-four chain by TVL, standing out as one of the few corporate blockchains with genuine organic activity. Base and MetaMask will launch native tokens. Multiple top-tier crypto companies will IPO, including Kraken, BitGo, and Consensys, pulling mainstream attention back to crypto. Strategy and BitMine will not sell any of their BTC and ETH holdings, respectively.BTC will reach $140k+. BTC dominance will fall, but not meaningfully below 50%. BTC will set a higher high in Q2. NFTs and memecoin launchpads will not return. The privacy narrative will fade. The four-year cycle thesis will be effectively disproven by year's end.GabrielDATs will continue to trade below mNAV, pushing many to start selling assets. As crypto ETF trading becomes easier and offers better risk–reward for investors, the DAT narrative will fade.Large token unlocks, combined with weak market sentiment, will extend the selloff in this cycle’s tokens. Shortsighted buyback-and-burn strategies will come back to hurt projects over the next year as sentiment deteriorates and cash reserves decline.Funding round valuations will be materially lower than this year. Many VCs will have learned from investing in overvalued rounds that, while seemingly cheap relative to prior cycles, will continue to reset lower as the industry matures and hype dissipates. Network tokens will struggle to attract buyers as Stablecoins further position themselves as the most attractive and used asset class in DeFi, with activity increasingly moving away from ETH and SOL denominations toward USDC.Ivan2026 will be marked by a K-shaped recovery as low-effort tokens will lose mindshare as buyers and attention consolidate around projects and tokens with paying users at their core. Some themes that succeed include perpetual DEXs and prediction markets. Crypto projects in general begin holding back on token launches, favouring the IPO route instead. Similarly, high-quality DATs will continue to explore on-chain use cases, while others are forced to sell tokens as MNAV continues to compress.Bitcoin dominance rises in 2026 as alts struggle to maintain relevance, with capital captured by public crypto companies. Crypto stocks will continue to perform well, driven by diversification into non-crypto business lines (miners developing AI compute, CEXs offering stock trading, etc). Despite volatility, BTC outperforms the Nasdaq in 2026. In non-crypto news, the US will sell gold to mark a bottom in DXY.BrandonThe rise of bank-issued deposit tokens in 2026 will fragment institutional liquidity across proprietary ledgers (e.g., JPM Coin vs. Citi Token). Because global banks are structurally constrained from holding massive amounts of competitor liabilities, USDC will become the dominant neutral bridge asset, where a large portion of its 2026 growth will come from its utility as the clearing instrument between siloed banking networks.Agent-to-Agent transactions will standardize on x402 and make up a notable portion of global on-chain activity. Perps for crypto “greeks” such as implied volatility products (e.g., BTCVOL-PERP) or funding rate swaps, will gain traction in 2026.Alessandro2026 opens slowly, with a choppy, range-bound H1. Elevated risk premia and selective capital see majors hold up best, while the consistent winners are products with real distribution and recurring usage, especially wallets and trading surfaces that keep onboarding in spite of weak token performance. H2 is generally more bullish, with a handful of ecosystems and projects capturing most incremental flows, and the strongest bids coming from new consumer products that blend risk with credible fundamentals.Interoperability becomes a dominant narrative of the year, with cross-chain routing and chain abstraction improving enough for “everything apps” to win distribution. RWAs gain ground through tokenized stocks, equity perps, and credit, while TradFi continues its push toward in-house or permissioned DLT. This sharpens the split between “real crypto” as a high-variance sandbox for new mechanisms and markets, and corporate DLT settlement rails.Better execution, tooling, and automation push arbitrage further toward specialist operators. Stablecoin supply accelerates, with USD still dominant but CHF and SGD posting the strongest growth off small bases. Prediction markets compound into the U.S. midterms, alongside rising odds of a messy, high-profile insider information investigation.SimonBitcoin dominance remains above 50%. Total crypto market cap does not go above $4t. ETFs flows remain net positive throughout the year, for all coins. The volumes for non-BTC and ETH ETFs reach $20B. Stablecoin adoption keeps increasing. Traditional companies will launch new stablecoins and existing ones will keep growing. Prediction markets are the fastest-growing crypto application in 2026. Open interest reaches $0.5B, volumes will be 3% of CEX volume. These applications will launch tokens to aggressively attract users to their platform. With better technology, decentralized derivative volumes keep increasing, reaching 25% of centralized derivatives volumes. NFTs see no revival in 2026; NFT marketplace volumes keep diminishing on average. TiagoPrediction markets will continue to be one of the strongest narratives in crypto, while others that dominated the last two years will lose momentum, such as memecoins and launchpads.BTC and other major coins will struggle to keep making new all-time highs as geopolitical tensions intensify, even as ETFs and other financial instruments continue to attract institutional and retail attention.Stablecoins will remain the strongest narrative in crypto for onboarding new users, with major players launching their own stablecoins or forming partnerships with established players such as Circle and Tether.IanMost DATs collapse in 2026 as shares trade below NAV, breaking the accretive equity issuance model that fueled their 2025 growth. Crypto ETFs expand and offer superior liquidity at lower fees. Strategy and a handful of other large-cap players survive through scale and brand, but the smaller DATs face liquidation, acquisition, or pivots away from pure-play treasury models.Stablecoins cross the $500B supply threshold and transaction volume surpasses the US ACH system by Q3. Growth accelerates on two parallel tracks: continued expansion in emerging markets and integration into enterprise payment flows in developed markets. Corporations shift from passive treasury holdings to operational use cases, migrating a portion of cross-border supplier payments, international contractor payroll, and intercompany settlement to stablecoin rails. At least one major card network routes 5-10% of cross-border merchant settlements through stablecoins by year-end. B2B payment platforms increasingly integrate stablecoin options for international invoicing.Prediction markets experience explosive growth during the US midterm election cycle, with Polymarket's volume quadrupling from 2024 levels. The sector bifurcates: Polymarket and Kalshi dominate cultural and political markets while specialized DeFi platforms focus on leveraged financial products. 85% of copycat platforms fail to gain traction and wind down operations. Legal frameworks around sports betting and prediction markets remain unresolved through year-end, but user adoption accelerates anyway as the market proves too large and too compelling.Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. 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