Polymarket bets on Fort Knox audit as reserve debate heats up

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, has listed bets on whether Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will audit the US gold reserves at Fort Knox.Polymarket introduced two Fort Knox prediction markets on Feb. 17, with one betting on whether the DOGE would audit Fort Knox by May 2025 and the other predicting the outcomes of such an audit.At the time of writing, Polymarket’s betting odds that the audit will take place by the end of April stood at 56%, indicating skepticism about whether the push for transparency will lead to the first official audit of the US Treasury’s gold reserves since 1974.Polymarket — which prohibits US residents from betting on its platform — saw a massive surge in bets amid the US presidential election, with many markets eventually pointing to accurate predictions.President Trump keeps quiet on the potential auditSince Kentucky Senator Rand Paul initiated the Fort Knox audit on Feb. 16, many commentators have joined the call for an audit of its gold reserves.On Feb. 17, conservative political commentator Glenn Beck sent a letter to US President Donald Trump, urging him to “restore full faith and credit” in the US government, beginning with its balance sheet.“I am asking for the opportunity to bring a camera crew under the strictest security measures to document and verify the presence of America’s gold reserves,” Beck said in a letter shared on X. He added:“This could be a defining moment in your legacy of fighting for transparency and putting America first.”Despite Musk continuing to push for the audit, Trump has so far remained silent on it.Before his first presidential term, Trump made some bold statements hinting that the US — the world’s largest holder of gold — might not have all the gold it claims.“We don’t have the gold. Other places have the gold,” Trump said on WMUR television in March 2015.What happens if Fort Knox gold is missing?While it remains unclear whether the US government will act on audit requests, speculation is mounting over what could happen if discrepancies were found.Some commentators highlighted that Fort Knox’s 4,600 tons of gold reserves — worth roughly $430 billion today — would not be a big deal for markets.“Probably not much, actually. It’s such a small amount even as stated,” macroeconomist Lyn Alden wrote on X.Some Bitcoiners suggested that a full Fort Knox audit could potentially “trigger a global confidence collapse in the dollar overnight” and force a rally in Bitcoin .Others suggested that the public would never know the actual outcome of such an audit, which makes a use case for the establishment of a state Bitcoin reserve.In the meantime, spot gold has been gaining momentum, setting a new all-time high above $2,940 last week and reportedly reaching a new record in inflation-adjusted terms recently.Amid rising gold prices, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold target to $3,100, reiterating its “Go for gold” trading recommendation to hedge against global trade tensions.