‘Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze’: Standard Chartered halves 2025 bitcoin target to $100K, but keeps long-term bull case
Standard Chartered has sharply lowered its bitcoin price forecasts, halving its end-of-2025 target to $100,000 from $200,000 and pushing its long-term $500,000 projection out by two years to 2030 as recent price action spurred a reassessment of previous targets.In a Dec. 9 note, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick said bitcoin's performance "forced us to recalibrate" the bank’s projections, even though the roughly 36% decline from October's all-time high to around $80,500 by late November still falls "within ‘normal’ expectations" compared to prior drawdowns since U.S. spot ETFs went live."Our previous near-term targets are wrong," Kendrick wrote, adding that Standard Chartered nevertheless "stand[s] by our long-term view that BTC will eventually reach USD 500,000."Under the updated path, the bank now expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, $150,000 in 2026, $225,000 in 2027, $300,000 in 2028, and $400,000 in 2029, before hitting $500,000 in 2030. Earlier iterations of the framework had penciled in $200,000 for 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.The move marks a notable reset from a series of bullish calls the bank has made over the past few months. In July, Standard Chartered reaffirmed its $200,000 year-end 2025 target, pointing to ETF flows, corporate treasury demand, and policy tailwinds. More recently, it suggested bitcoin's break below $100,000 would be brief and that, under the right macro setup, the asset might not revisit sub-$100,000 levels again.Corporate treasury buying has 'run its course'Kendrick frames the new forecasts around a shift in who is driving incremental demand.In his view, the two key forces behind bitcoin’s surge since U.S. spot ETF approval have been ETF inflows and buying by "digital asset treasury" companies — listed firms that hold large bitcoin positions on their balance sheets, including Strategy (MSTR) and several bitcoin miners.That second leg, he now argues, is effectively done.Standard Chartered’s base case is that "Bitcoin buying by DATs has run its course," as valuations measured by market-cap-to-bitcoin-value multiples, or mNAVs, no longer support aggressive balance sheet expansion.With aggregate mNAVs falling and Strategy’s own mNAV dipping below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, Kendrick expects consolidation among smaller players rather than fresh waves of corporate accumulation.Aggregate company market cap divided by value of BTC held | Image: Standard CharteredHowever, the analyst does not expect large-scale selling from flagship holders. Strategy’s average purchase price near $74,000 still leaves it "well in the money," and in the prior cycle, the company did not sell even when bitcoin traded materially below that average.With that in mind, the bank's new framework assumes "zero DAT buying" going forward and periodic ETF inflows of roughly 200,000 BTC per quarter — a pace that previously coincided with new highs, but now represents the sole structural demand leg.ETF flows replace halving cycle as key driverKendrick also pushes back on the idea that the current drawdown marks the start of another "crypto winter" tied to bitcoin’s halving cycle. While the latest peak arrived about 18 months after the April 2024 halving, which is consistent with earlier cycles, he argues that the underlying driver has changed."With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver," the note says. "Longer-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver."Standard Chartered’s analysis of ETF and corporate holdings shows that three major episodes of combined buying — around 250,000 BTC, 450,000 BTC, and another 250,000 BTC in rolling quarterly flows — lined up with major price surges through March 2024, early 2025, and July 2025.By contrast, the record high set on Oct. 6, 2025, came when trailing quarterly purchases had already fallen to about 160,000 BTC and are now down to roughly 50,000 BTC, the lowest since U.S. spot ETFs launched.Given that backdrop, Kendrick characterizes the latest drop as a "storm before the calm" rather than a structural break. Still, he opines that the current structure exposes how dependent bitcoin’s near-term trajectory has become on the cadence of ETF allocations.Slower path, but still a structurally bullish viewEven with the trimmed numbers, the report maintains a strongly bullish long-term stance anchored in portfolio optimization rather than pure cycle analysis. Standard Chartered’s models compare a theoretical bitcoin-gold portfolio with current market caps and conclude that global portfolios remain materially underweight bitcoin.Using historical bitcoin volatility, the bank estimates an "optimal" allocation of 12% to bitcoin versus 88% to gold in a two-asset portfolio, whereas current market caps suggest a 5%/95% split. Under the present three-month implied volatility assumptions, the optimal share rises to 20%.Furthermore, in a scenario using current implied volatilities for both bitcoin and gold, the model suggests a 36% allocation to bitcoin, implying a price upside of up to 7x from current levels if realized over time.Kendrick also cautions that the timing of such portfolio shifts is "difficult to predict" and likely slower than he previously assumed, especially now that DAT-driven demand has faded.Nevertheless, he argues that as access improves via ETFs and more investment committees formally add digital assets to mandates, real-world allocations should gradually converge toward those theoretical weights.The note also reiterates Standard Chartered’s view that "crypto winters are a thing of the past," citing the structural role bitcoin can play as a hedge against banking stress and perceived risks around U.S. Treasuries, including political pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee and concerns that a future Fed chair could keep policy too loose.Ultimately, Kendrick concedes that his prior timing was too aggressive, but not his destination. "We lower our Bitcoin price forecasts" through 2029, he writes, "and extend our forecast horizon to 2030, when we now expect the price to reach USD 500,000."According to The Block's price page, BTC changed hands around $90,000 just ahead of the December Federal Open Market Committee.Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.