How bitcoin has historically responded to bear markets
By Steve GoldsteinBitcoin is usually, but not always, a buy when it enters abHistorically, bitcoin entering a bear market has been great buying opportunity. But not always.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading under $100,000 on Friday morning, well below its early October peak.MarketWatch looked at data since 2014 when bitcoin fell at least 20% from highs. Peak Date Peak Price Bear Entry Entry Price Decline (%) 6M Return 12M Return 2014-09-17 $457.33 2014-10-03 $359.51 -21.39% -31.22% -33.60% 2015-12-15 $465.32 2016-01-15 $364.33 -21.70% 79.64% 124.63% 2016-06-16 $766.31 2016-06-22 $596.12 -22.21% 32.98% 353.84% 2017-01-04 $1,154.73 2017-01-06 $902.20 -21.87% 188.40% 1842.69% 2017-03-03 $1,274.99 2017-03-18 $973.82 -23.62% 223.98% 744.48% 2017-06-11 $2,958.11 2017-07-11 $2,337.79 -20.97% 604.84% 173.54% 2017-09-01 $4,892.01 2017-09-13 $3,882.59 -20.63% 137.09% 67.86% 2017-11-08 $7,459.69 2017-11-12 $5,950.07 -20.24% 41.87% 7.08% 2017-12-16 $19,497.40 2017-12-22 $13,831.80 -29.06% -51.01% -70.98% 2021-01-08 $40,797.61 2021-01-21 $30,825.70 -24.44% -3.30% 18.27% 2021-02-21 $57,539.95 2021-02-28 $45,137.77 -21.55% 8.69% -4.31% 2021-04-13 $63,503.46 2021-04-24 $50,050.87 -21.18% 24.29% -21.14% 2021-11-08 $67,566.83 2021-11-26 $53,569.77 -20.72% -44.82% -69.27% 2024-03-13 $73,083.50 2024-05-01 $58,254.01 -20.29% 20.01% 65.64% 2025-01-21 $106,146.27 2025-02-26 $84,347.02 -20.54% 30.56% N/A 2025-10-06 $124,752.53 2025-11-13 $99,697.49 -20.08% N/A N/A The median gain six months later has been 31% and the median gain 12 months later is 42%. But there also have been situations where even a year later, bitcoin is still down by some 70%.Bitcoin, of course, has no fundamental value, even with aggressive retail and increasingly institutional adoption.The storied hedge fund D.E. Shaw says bitcoin could be a non-productive store of value, but unlike gold, it tends to move with other financial assets rather than against them.-Steve GoldsteinThis content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.