History suggests Bitcoin taps $330K, crypto ETF odds hit 90%: Hodler’s Digest, June 15 – 21

Top Stories of The WeekUS crypto ETF approval odds surge to 90% or higher Bloomberg analystsThe likelihood of US regulators approving a wave of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is now a near certainty, signaling a continued pro-crypto shift at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to Bloomberg analysts Erich Balchunas and James Seyffart.In a social media post on Friday, Seffart said he and Balchunas have raised their odds for the vast majority of crypto ETF approvals to 90% or higher, citing very positive engagement from the SEC.The analysts also suggested that the SEC likely views cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin as commodities a designation that would place them outside of its immediate jurisdiction.Coinbase secures MiCA license, names Luxembourg as EU headquartersCoinbase has secured a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license from the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, which enables the exchange to offer crypto products across European Union countries.The move signals mounting competition in the European crypto market, where other exchanges have also been pursuing registrations. OKX and Crypto.com secured MiCA licenses in January, followed by Bybit in May. Gemini is also on track to obtain a license in the region, according to a Reuters report.Coinbase has named Luxembourg as its new European headquarters, citing the countrys reputation as a progressive financial center in Western Europe. Bordered by Belgium, France and Germany, the country has been gradually advancing crypto regulations since 2019.Semler Scientific plans Bitcoin holdings of 105,000 BTC by 2027Healthcare tech firm Semler Scientific, Inc. says it plans to boost its Bitcoin stack by nearly 28 times in the next two-and-a-half years, growing its holdings from 3,808 Bitcoin to 105,000 Bitcoin.Semler is aiming to hold a total of 10,000 BTC by the end of this year, then 42,000 BTC by the end of 2026, before going for its final target of 105,000 BTC by 2027, the company said on Thursday.It plans to use equity, debt financing and operational cash flow to reach its target, and has appointed a new director to lead the plan.Semler first purchased Bitcoin in May 2024 and said it would continue to buy and hold Bitcoin for the long term.Bitcoin sentiment at peak FUD with divide between bears and bulls SantimentRetail traders are almost evenly split on Bitcoins outlook, with sentiment at its lowest level since April when Donald Trumps global tariff announcement rattled markets.Crypto research platform Santiment marketing director Brian Quinlivan said on Thursday that with crypto in a bit of a lull, traders are showing signs of impatience & bearish sentiment. He added the firms social media analysis found that there are just 1.03 bullish comments for every 1 bearish comment, which hasnt happened since peak FUD [fear, uncertainty and doubt] during initial tariff reactions on April 6.Telegram’s Pavel Durov approved to leave France temporarilyTelegram founder Pavel Durov gained court approval to leave France for up to 14 days to travel to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, where the company is headquartered.Durov will be allowed to leave France on July 10 after having a travel request denied by French officials in May, according to French news outlet Le Monde.The executive had requested permission to travel to Oslo, Norway, to deliver a keynote address at the Human Rights Foundations Oslo Freedom Forum, which was presented remotely after French officials rejected his travel application.Winners and LosersAt the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $103,460, Ether (ETH) at $2,424 and XRP at $2.12. The total market cap is at $3.20 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Sei (SEI) at 24.38%, Kaia (KAIA) at 23.85% and Aerodrome Finance (AERO) at 9.19%.The top three altcoin losers of the week are Story (IP) at 28.35%, SPX6900 (SPX) at 27.20% and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) at 24.20%. For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.Most Memorable QuotationsEvery platform should have a will function so that when someone is no longer around, their assets can be distributed to designated accounts according to specified proportions.Changpeng CZ Zhao, founder and former CEO of BinanceWall Street wants Bitcoin and crypto assets.Anthony Pompliano, crypto entrepreneurThe listing marks the beginning, not the end of this cycles stablecoin mania.Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEXA strong balance sheet built on Bitcoin enables us to significantly improve our brokerage operation while maintaining full exposure to Bitcoins upside potential.Torbjrn Bull Jenssen, CEO of K33Traditional cross-border payment infrastructures can be easily politicized and weaponized, and used as a tool for unilateral sanctions, damaging global economic and financial order.Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of ChinaThe markets arent entirely Bitcoin focused; as a matter of fact, it is shifting toward Ethereum.Michal van de Poppe, founder of MN CapitalTop Prediction of The WeekHistorical Bitcoin trend calls for $330K BTC price before bull market endsBitcoin’s price has had a rocky month, but recent analysis indicates that BTC could surge another 300% this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van LagensX posthighlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoins active capitalization (money in motion) to its total invested capitalization (realized capital, excluding miner rewards).Historically, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3 mean deviation, it has signaled a cycle top. For example, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021. Currently, the AVIV Ratios level remains below these past peaks, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to at least $330,000 this cycle, before the +3 mean deviation condition is met.FUD of The WeekNorways government explores crypto mining ban amid energy supply concernsThe government of Norway is considering a temporary ban on crypto mining in the country in an effort to free up power, network capacity and area for other purposes.In a Friday notice, the Norwegian government said it would be conducting an investigation in autumn that could result in a temporary ban on crypto mining data centers. Officials said they had the authority to enforce such a ban under Norways Planning and Building Act, which includes provisions on allocating energy.It is uncertain how big a problem crypto mining will become in Norway in the future, the notice reads. The registration requirement in the new data center regulations will provide increased knowledge about the scope of data centers that mine cryptocurrency. Read also Features Blockchain and the worlds growing plastic problem Features Bitcoin 2023 in Miami comes to grips with ‘shitcoins on Bitcoin’ Crypto user attacked in France over Ledger hardware wallet ReportFrance has reportedly seen another incident targeting cryptocurrency users, this time involving the kidnapping of a 23-year-old man in a Paris suburb. According to a Thursday report from French news outlet Le Parisien, the victim was abducted in Maisons-Alfort and held captive for several hours while the perpetrators demanded his partner to turn over 5,000 euros ($5,764) in cash, along with the key to a Ledger hardware wallet containing an unreported amount of crypto. The report suggested that the criminals used violence to extract information regarding his digital assets.The unnamed man was reportedly held captive on Tuesday before being released in the town of Crteil. Politicians memecoins, dropped court cases fuel crypto crime supercycleMemecoins promoted by political figures like Donald Trump, lax regulations, and crypto court cases abandoned by US regulators have kicked off a crypto crime supercycle, say a pair of blockchain crime investigators.  Read also Features Fake Rabby Wallet scam linked to Dubai crypto CEO and many more victims Features ZK-rollups are the endgame for scaling blockchains: Polygon Miden founder Pseudonymous blockchain investigator ZachXBT posted to X on Thursday that crypto has historically been ripe for abuse, but that has noticeably increased since politicians launched memecoins and numerous court cases were dropped, further enabling the behavior.He claimed crypto influencers and key thought leaders face zero repercussions for scamming their followers. That said, theres never been a worse time to be doing black hat, phishing, social engineering, robberies, vs. gray hat activity when the current environment is favorable, ZachXBT added. Top Magazine Stories of The WeekNew Yorks PubKey Bitcoin bar will orange-pill Washington DC nextFor a community that is primarily online, the brick-and-mortar bar PubKey offers Bitcoiners the chance to drink, fellowship and orange-pill the neighborhood.WeChat friends help crypto thieves, Korbit denies hack: Asia ExpressScammers are exploiting WeChats security feature to steal crypto, South Korean exchange goes dark for 12 hours but denies hack, and more.Bitcoins invisible tug-of-war between suits and cypherpunksBitcoins entire schtick was about sticking it to the big banks and governments, not joining them. Subscribe The most engaging reads in blockchain. Delivered once a week. Email addressSUBSCRIBE