Coinbase Is the Real Trump Trade as Stock Set for Record Closing High — Barrons.com
By Nate WolfCoinbase Global stock was on pace for a record closing high Monday, extending its bull run into what the White House is calling " Crypto Week.".The crypto sector has thrived since President Donald Trump took office in January — Bitcoin set a record high Monday — buoyed by legislative developments, dropped lawsuits, and the appointment of crypto-friendly regulators. As perhaps the biggest name in digital assets outside of Bitcoin itself, Coinbase has had a particularly strong start to 2025."No other company (and industry) may be benefitting more under Trump," wrote analysts at Ned Davis Research in a research note.Coinbase was up 2% to $394.79 in midafternoon trading. The stock hit a record closing high on Thursday, at $388.96. Its all-time intraday high was $429.54 on April 14, 2021, the day it went public. Shares have jumped 63% this yearThe cryptocurrency trading platform was on pace to close with a market capitalization above $100 billion for the first time, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Coinbase struck an early victory in February, when the Securities and Exchange Commission dropped a two-year-old lawsuit alleging the company operated as an unregistered securities exchange. Three months later, it became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500. Even a costly cyberattack and news of a second SEC investigation did little to dent the stock.The question is where Coinbase shares go from here. Shareholders will be pleased if the sector continues to get both the regulation and deregulation it wants.Congress will consider a trio of bills this week that clarify the structure of the crypto sector and the regulations around it. Crypto bulls broadly support all three. At the same time, Ned Davis Research pointed out, the SEC moved crypto oversight to its "friendlier" Cyber & Technology unit and repealed SAB 121, which required financial institutions to report crypto custody holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets.Moving forward, the firm expects Coinbase to successfully petition the SEC to offer tokenized equities on its platform given CEO Brian Armstrong's close relationship to Trump.Coinbase also is in pole position to benefit from the Clarity Act — one of the bills up for debate this week — which would give institutions more confidence in the digital assets they can trade and hold, wrote Benchmark Equity Research analyst Mark Palmer in a research note.The company has the compliance chops and range of offerings needed to service institutional clients, Palmer added. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating and a $421 price target for the stock.The positive news already priced into Coinbase's shares, of course, and it isn't like the "Crypto Week" legislation is a slam dunk. Owen Lau of Oppenheimer gives the Clarity Act a 70% chance of passing this year. Lau also lowered his estimates for Coinbase's quarterly and annual trading volume in a preview of the company's July 31 earnings print.Even a disappointing earnings release may not be enough to thwart the momentum, though. Oppenheimer reiterated an Outperform rating and lifted its price target to $417 from $395."We believe a more attractive entry point could happen after the [July 31] print," Lau counseled investors. "We remain constructive on the long-term prospects for COIN."Write to Nate Wolf at [email protected] content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.