Bitcoin’s $126K Sprint May Be Over — Fidelity Predicts 2026 Slide
Fidelity’s top markets strategist has warned that Bitcoin’s October high of $126,000 could mark the top of the current cycle, and investors should be ready for a rough ride in 2026.According to Jurrien Timmer, a notable pullback is possible next year with key support seen in a range of $65,000 to $75,000. That view sits alongside data points and trader commentary that recall past big drops after sharp peaks.Cycle Warning From FidelityTimmer said Bitcoin’s price history follows a roughly four-year rhythm tied to halvings. Past peaks have been followed by steep corrections of about 70 to 85%.For example, after a high of $1,137 in 2013 the price slipped to roughly $230, and the 2017 peak near $14,050 later traded down toward $3,415. Prices surged again after 2021, and that pattern of parabolic advance then sharp retreat has been repeated. Some traders say those falls are tests of patience rather than a sign the story is broken.Fidelity Warns: Cycle Peak May Already Be InFidelity’s Jurrien Timmer believes the $126K October high was the top for this cycle. Based on 4-year halving pattern, He expects 2026 to be a down year, with support around $65K–$75K.Short-Term Pain, Long-Term… Historical Charts Show Parabolic MovesReports have disclosed that long-term log charts help put these swings in perspective by showing percentage growth across cycles, which can make big-dollar moves easier to read.Market action often looks like a rapid climb to a peak, a quick drop, and a long period where prices move sideways and gains feel slow. Those sideways stretches are where many long-term holders are rewarded, though it can take years.BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end…Galaxy Research has flagged overlapping macro and market risks that make forecasting harder for 2026, and options and volatility trends suggest Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro asset than a pure growth gamble. Galaxy Research is still bullish on a multi-year view and projects a path toward $250,000 by the end of 2027. First Quarter Patterns May MatterBased on reports from traders, the first quarter has in past cycles been a period that often supports price stability, although recent years have shown less regularity. Large inflows and treasury buys that could arrive in 2025 might be offset by early-cycle selling from big holders.The balance between institutional demand and whale supply will likely show itself in the first half of 2026, making that stretch important for whether historical four-year rhythms hold firm.Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView