Bitcoin Stays Stronger After Hitting Record High — Market Talk
0718 GMT - Bitcoin stays higher after rising to a record Sunday as investors seek alternative assets amid a U.S. government shutdown and political concerns elsewhere. The federal shutdown has been in shutdown since Wednesday. The Senate is scheduled to vote again on a stopgap spending measure, although it's not expected to pass. President Trump said Sunday that some federal workers have already been fired. Elsewhere, the U.K. is grappling with fiscal concerns ahead of November's autumn budget and the French government faces risks of another no-confidence motion amid fraught budget talks. Bitcoin rises 0.9% to $123,921 after hitting an all-time high of $125,653, LSEG data show.([email protected])0718 GMT - Taiwan's September consumer prices likely increased 1.7% on year, according to a Wall Street Journal poll of six economists. Taiwan's inflation has been under control in recent months, coming in at 1.6% in August and 1.54% in July. Fresh food prices likely softened in September but prices of other goods and services could remain somewhat elevated, Barclays economists say in a research note. ING economists think that Taiwan's inflation could remain below the 2% target level for the remainder of 2025, keeping the door open for a December rate cut if the island's economic data deteriorates. Still, the economists think the central bank will likely remain hold in December as Taiwan's trade has held up well so far this year. ([email protected])0710 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise, particularly long-dated yields, as the U.S. government shutdown drags on into a second week. This means official U.S. data, including key monthly nonfarm payrolls numbers due last week, won't be released. Other U.S. jobs data last week were mixed. Focus this week will be on Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes for clues on how fast interest rates are likely to fall. Ten-year and 30-year Treasury auctions on Wednesday and Thursday will also provide "a good test of demand around current Fed and government policies," Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rise 3 basis points to 4.152%, while 30-year yields rise 4.5bps to 4.759%, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0708 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% at Wednesday's meeting, two members of Barclays FICC Research say in a research report. "Headwinds to growth from slowing exports and tourist arrivals, and weak private consumption demand from elevated household debt will likely drive the easing," the members say. The BOT's monetary policy committee will meet for the first time under the guidance of a new governor, Vitai Ratanakorn. The new governor is widely viewed as dovish due to his appointment by the previous administration, which had repeatedly called for the central bank to ease monetary policy, Barclays adds. ([email protected])0649 GMT - The dollar rises to a 10-day high as the Japanese yen weakens after Sanae Takaichi won the leadership election of Japan's ruling party. "Takaichi is seen as pro stimulus and likely to pursue easier fiscal and monetary policies," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. Jefferies, however, continues to expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in early 2026. The dollar also receives a boost from higher oil prices after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies announced agreed to boost production in November. The U.S. is a major producer of crude oil. The DXY dollar index rises to a high of 98.212. The dollar rises 1.9% to a two-month high of 150.43 yen. ([email protected])0532 GMT - The Philippine central bank's decision this week will be a tough call between a hawkish cut or a dovish hold, says HSBC's Aris Dacanay. The BSP has telegraphed its openness to one more rate cut by year's end--whether that will happen next week or in December is less predictable. It has signaled it could cut as early as October if there are signs that the economy is losing steam, but Dacanay says there is limited data to convincingly conclude a slowdown, with both domestic demand and goods exports holding firm. And after a surprise uptick in August, inflation concerns should be on the table too. HSBC expects the BSP to keep rates on hold this week. ([email protected])0453 GMT - The Bank of Japan likely remains on track for an October rate hike despite the ruling party selecting Takaichi as its new leader, HSBC economists say. While Takaichi, who will likely become Japan's next PM, has expressed dovish monetary-policy views, HSBC's team doesn't expect her to stand in the way of the central bank raising rates at its next meeting, even if her election could curtail further monetary-policy tightening down the road. "While the outlook for domestic growth remains uncertain due to U.S. trade policies, we note that there are already two hawkish votes on the monetary policy board for another rate hike," Frederic Neumann and others write in a note.([email protected])0449 GMT - The yen looks set to soften as the election of Takaichi as the head of Japan's ruling party raises policy uncertainty, HSBC economists say. JPY outperformed in the lead-up to the election, in part on expectations that a BOJ rate hike was coming soon. Those gains are likely to be partially reversed near term, Frederic Neumann and others write, as the market was under-prepared for a victory by Takaichi, who has expressed dovish views. That said, there are offsetting factors: HSBC believes policymakers will come to the understanding that yen weakness will exacerbate cost-of-living issues, and that FX intervention becomes more likely if USD/JPY to rises above the 150 big figure. Its base case is still for USD/JPY to fall modestly over time. USD/JPY last at 150.24, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0442 GMT - USD/SGD's downtrend from early-January high of 1.3750 seems to be attempting to form a base, according to the weekly chart, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research in a research report. The currency pair's weekly moving average convergence divergence indicator has stayed in positive territory since early August, the senior technical strategist notes. However, USD/SGD must break clearly above 1.3000 before a further rise toward significant resistance zone between 1.3085, the 55-week exponential moving average, and 1.3135, the descending weekly trendline, can be expected, the strategist adds. USD/SGD is 0.3% higher at 1.2920, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0249 GMT - Singapore's retail-sales growth will likely strengthen in 4Q, says Barnabas Gan, group chief economist and head of market research at RHB Research, in a note. The city-state's August retail sales expanded 5.2% on year, marking the strongest growth in retail activity since February 2024, he says. He expects major festive periods to boost the retail and F&B sectors in 4Q, while tourism-related industries could gain thanks to more visitors during China's Golden Week holiday period. Government-distributed vouchers are also likely to support retail-sales expansion. Nonetheless, he says that the retail climate could still face headwinds if economic conditions deteriorate. RHB maintains its 2025 retail-sales growth forecast at 2.5%. ([email protected])0246 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid a cautious mood. The White House has warned that it could start mass federal layoffs if shutdown talks with Democrats remain stalled, CIMB's research analysts say in a research report. The U.S. government shutdown is heading into a second week amid no signs of progress, the analysts note. Also, the delay in U.S. data releases stemming from the shutdown has fueled uncertainty over the economic outlook, the analysts add. USD/SGD is 0.2% higher at 1.2916, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0243 GMT - The last chance for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates would be January if it can't make a move at its October meeting, says Okasan Securities economist Ko Nakayama. It will be difficult for the BOJ to tighten monetary policy in December because that will be during the period of compiling the supplementary budget, Nakayama says. "If the bank misses the opportunity again in January, the rate-hike decision will have to be made based on the results of next year's shunto wage negotiations," he says. However, the size of pay hikes will likely be smaller than this year's due to smaller firms' limited capacity, he adds. "The momentum for a virtuous cycle of wages and prices is likely to be significantly weaker compared to this year." ([email protected])