Bitcoin Rises Slightly After Upbeat Tech Earnings, More Positive Trade NewsMarket Talk

0927 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly following upbeat U.S. tech earnings and news that the Trump administration is inching closer toward trade deals. Microsoft and Meta reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results. This suggests robust consumer demand despite tariff concerns, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Investor sentiment has also improved after the Trump administration suggested the U.S. is closer to unveiling its first set of trade agreements, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.8% to $95,326, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0922 GMT - U.K. households are beginning to rein in their spending amid fears of an economic slowdown, Ashley Webb at Capital Economics says. Consumer credit rose by 900 million pounds in March, a slower pace of increase than a month earlier and than the average of the last six months, figures show Thursday. "This suggests households started to spend a bit more cautiously amid the weakening employment outlook even before the new U.S. tariffs regime hit consumer sentiment in April," Webb writes in a note to clients.([email protected]; @joshualeokirby)0839 GMT - The prospect of a slower pace of interest-rate rises by the Bank of Japan could help dampen the Japanese yen's recent strength in the near term, MUFG Bank analyst Lee Hardman says in a note. The BOJ on Thursday left rates unchanged while sounding more cautious about the prospect of further rate rises with downgrades to economic growth and inflation forecasts. This should curb the yen's strength, Hardman says. However, it's unlikely to reverse the safe-haven yen's appreciating trend if global growth continues to slow and other major central banks cut rates further, he says. The dollar rises 0.8% to 144.215 yen after earlier hitting a three-week high of 144.748, according to FactSet. ([email protected])0833 GMT - The cost of insuring euro credit against default using credit default swaps falls as sentiment improves following better-than-expected earnings from Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday. "Meta and Microsoft post impressive results, allaying fears of a slow down in AI investment," Quilter Cheviot analyst Ben Barringer says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index which tracks euro junk bond credit default swaps declines 6 basis points to 344bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. The iTraxx Europe Main index which tracks euro investment-grade credit default swaps falls 1bp to 67bps. ([email protected])0831 GMT - Sterling stands to benefit from the prospect of closer ties between the U.K. and the EU, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The U.K. is expected to sign a new security and defense pact with the EU at the first U.K.-EU summit since Brexit on May 19. A closer relationship with Europe could see the U.K.'s Office for Budget Responsibility score U.K. growth prospects higher in November, Turner says. That will give U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves more room to spend. The euro last trades flat at 0.8500 pounds and ING expects it could reach 0.8430 if it achieves a clear break below 0.8500. ([email protected])0817 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall on improved risk appetite as concerns about global trade tensions ebb and after Wednesday's weak U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product data. Short-dated yields in particular are pulled lower as investors increasingly expect interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with money markets pricing in 100 basis points of reductions this year, LSEG data show. "The declining U.S. 2-year yield suggests that part of the stock rebound is being driven by rising expectations of deeper Fed cuts," Swissquote Bank'sIpek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield declines to 3.609%, after touching a 3.5-week low of 3.591% on Wednesday, Tradeweb data show. The 10-year yield falls 2 basis points to 4.152%. ([email protected])0755 GMT - The euro could extend its falls against the dollar as the reduction in dollar risk premium potentially has further to go, ING's Chris Turner says in note. A slightly more positive environment has seen risk premium come out of the dollar, he says. This is helped by optimism over U.S. trade talks and the U.S. signing a minerals deal with Ukraine. "Many European markets are closed for the Labour Day public holiday, but the euro could drift towards the $1.1250/60 area unless the [U.S. ISM manufacturing data] has a big miss on the downside." The data are due at 1500 GMT. The euro falls to a two-week low of $1.1287, according to FactSet. ([email protected])0753 GMT - Singapore has avoided the worst of U.S. tariffs, but its heavy reliance on global trade and growth leaves the economy vulnerable, ING says. It cuts Singapore's 2025 growth forecast by 100 bps to 1.6%, expecting tariffs to reduce exports by 0.7% of GDP. The impact on GDP growth will be larger, as the second-round effects affect other parts of the economy, especially manufacturing and employment, ING's Deepali Bhargava says. Manufacturing was weaker than expected in 1Q, likely to stay that way throughout the year and could spill over into services, she adds. The interconnectedness of Singapore's economy with global supply chains amplifies the risks that it faces, she says, and outward-oriented services sectors, such as finance & insurance, could slow as external demand softens. ([email protected])0753 GMT - Oil prices fall in early trading, with Brent crude down to $60 a barrel as concerns over weakening demand intensified after the latest data showed the U.S. economy contracted in 1Q for the first time since 2022. The international oil benchmark slips 0.9% to $60.53 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI trades 1% lower to $57.61 a barrel. Both contracts are down 19% on month. The outlook is also clouded by prospects of OPEC+ accelerating its unwinding of output cuts for the second straight month in June, with Reuters reporting that Saudi Arabia has signaled it can handle a prolonged period of low prices. "April has been a turbulent month for the crude oil market, shaken by negative demand signals, strategic decisions by producers, and evolving geopolitical tensions," says Antonio Di Giacomo, financial markets analyst at XS.com. ([email protected])0732 GMT - The Norwegian krone could continue to recover as risk sentiment improves on hopes for U.S. trade deals, Rabobank forex strategist Jane Foley says in a note. The krone has been recovering since a sharp selloff in early April when President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. However, it remains the worst performing G-10 currency on a one-month view, Foley says. While periods of market volatility bode poorly for the krone's outlook, improved market sentiment and the European Central Bank's signals for further interest rate cuts should support the krone, she says. The euro rises 0.1% to 11.7927 krone after hitting a three-week low of 11.7391 late Wednesday, according to FactSet. Rabobank expects it to fall to 11.50 in three months. ([email protected])0652 GMT - The trade war seems to be having only a relatively small impact on South Korea's economy so far, Capital Economics' Gareth Leather says. South Korean trade data--which give some indication on the performance of exporters in the region and the impact of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs--were better than expected, he says. South Korea has benefited from the 90-day pause in the U.S. reciprocal tariffs as well as the delay in electronics exports levies, but has still been hit by a 25% duty on cars, which account for just under 30% of its exports to America, he adds. A shrinking 1Q GDP and a pullback in service sector activity and retail sales show that the economy remains very weak, and CE thinks it's just a matter of time before the central bank resumes rate cuts. ([email protected])0640 GMT - The dollar rises to a two-week high as its recent selloff takes a pause amid optimism that the global trade war is easing. The Trump administration earlier this week moved to soften the impact of automotive tariffs and has signalled progress in trade talks with other countries. "Trump is likely to score easy wins with deals with India, Japan, South Korea and Japan, but deals with the EU and China will prove trickier," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. The market's focus is likely to shift to the economic impact of tariff policies but this won't be seen in data before the second half of May, he says. The DXY dollar index rises to a high of 100.0260. ([email protected])