Bitcoin Rises Following Wall Street Rally — Market Talk
0705 GMT - Bitcoin remains stronger after reaching a seven-week high overnight as U.S. stocks rose to fresh records after a weak U.S. private payrolls data fuelled expectations for further interest-rate cuts. ADP data on Wednesday showed private employers unexpectedly shed 32,000 jobs in September. The August payrolls figure was also revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initial increase of 54,000. The data prompted markets to fully price in another rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the October 29 meeting, LSEG data show. A U.S. government shutdown means the release of official data, including Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, might be delayed. Bitcoin rises 0.9% to $118,614 after hitting a high of $119,473 overnight, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0654 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields trade little changed as investors await Spanish and French government bond auctions, as well as eurozone unemployment data for August due at 0900 GMT. Spain will auction 4.75 billion euros to 6.25 billion euros in conventional, green and inflation-linked bonds, including a new conventional bond. France will auction 10 billion euros to 11.5 billion euros in long-dated bonds. The 10-year German Bund yield trades at 2.712%; the 10-year French OAT yield is at 3.527%, while the 10-year Spanish bond yield trades at 3.249%, according to Tradeweb. ([email protected])0649 GMT - The dollar stays weak as the U.S. government shutdown continues and the market bets on more U.S. interest-rate cuts following further evidence of a weakening labor market. The shutdown started Wednesday after Senate lawmakers failed to agree a funding deal. President Trump has threatened to fire federal workers during the shutdown. Official data could also be delayed, including Friday's key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Private sector data continues be released, however. Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report showed unexpected job losses, fuelling bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates further. The DXY dollar index trades steady at 97.724 but remains near the one-week low of 97.462 reached Wednesday.([email protected])0631 GMT - The Philippine property sector stands to gain from the Accelerated and Reformed Right-of-Way Act the government signed into law recently, which will help speed up infrastructure projects, Maybank Securities' Raffy Mendoza says in a research report. The legislation aims to fast-track the government's right-of-way issues that have resulted in costly delays in the Philippines' much-needed infrastructure projects, the analyst says. Better physical connectivity from completed infrastructure projects leads to higher land values, benefiting property developers with large land banks. The brokerage reiterates its positive view on the Philippines' property sector, with Ayala Land as its top pick. It has a buy rating and a target price of PHP40.00 on the stock, which is 1.6% lower at PHP24.00. ([email protected])0610 GMT - Private credit is stepping in to fund Hong Kong's real estate industry as banks retreat from the sector, says Knight Frank. Banks have less appetite for new property risk, the real-estate consultancy says in a report, noting that property development and investment loans fell 12.6% on year by end-2024. Borrowers are increasingly required to source alternative funding, with some accepting higher-cost private credit to avoid project disruptions, it adds. "Specialist lenders are filling this gap by refinancing at current market values, and, in select cases, providing short-tenor senior loans with double-digit coupons," says Knight Frank. ([email protected])0607 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields barely move in Asian trade as the U.S. government's shutdown is continuing. Treasury yields fell Wednesday on the back of weaker-than-expected ADP private sector jobs data, and the Treasury curve also steepened. The curve steepening is expected to continue "as the risk of inflation expectations un-anchoring continues to linger," Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield last trades at 3.544%; the 10-year yield trades at 4.109%; and the 30-year is at 4.720%, according to Tradeweb data. ([email protected])0547 GMT - India's private credit landscape is likely to continue its strong growth trajectory and fuel the country's real-estate sector, says Knight Frank in a report. The country could contribute up to 30% of regional private credit fundraising by 2025, it notes. This financing form has become a viable option for India's real-estate developers as it enables faster access to tailored capital for land acquisition, refinancing and construction, says Knight Frank India's Harry Chaplin Rogers. "As more developers opt for these flexible structures over traditional funding options, investor appetite is expanding and processes are becoming more streamlined, ultimately positioning private credit as a key driver of the sector's next growth phase," he adds. ([email protected])0534 GMT - A rate cut by India's central bank in December still looks likely to analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, despite policymakers' caution around further easing. The central bank's growth and inflation forecasts for FY 2025-26 look too high to BMI, which expects inflation to undershoot the RBI's target for months to come. BMI thinks headline CPI will average just 2.0% in FY 2025-26, right at the lower bound of the range. It also seems unlikely that the stellar growth seen in 2Q will be repeated. High-frequency data suggests that growth slowed in 3Q, and this year's annual result will probably be closer to BMI's 6.0% forecast than the 6.8% that the RBI expects. BMI sticks to its call for a 25bp cut in December. ([email protected])0531 GMT - Australian household spending was weak in August, but there are good reasons to expect that the recovery seen this year on the back of falling inflation and lower interest rates has further room to run. Total spending rose by just 0.1% on month in August, well below consensus. Still, the recovery in demand remains intact and further growth in consumer spending is likely, as real incomes rise and the housing sector picks up, says Tom Ryan, economist at JPMorgan. Strong consumer demand was also reflected in August goods imports data, he says. Consumption imports grew 5.8% on month. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0530 GMT - Japan's economy held up better than expected in 1H, prompting analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, to raise their full-year growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.4%. Given that 2025 will now present a stronger base than before, they cut the 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9%. While a pronounced slowdown is possible in 2H, BMI doubts it will be as bad as previously expected. That said, U.S. tariffs will still weigh on Japan's economy. "Tariff headwinds remain, and we expect it to squeeze profit margins and in turn, investment, wages and consumption." BMI thinks companies will likely scale back wage hikes from 2H, and that the next round of wage talks will probably yield softer pay gains. ([email protected])0531 GMT - Bond markets are expected to move sideways in the fourth quarter, Erste Group Research analysts say in a quarterly global strategy outlook. In the eurozone, key interest rates should remain unchanged and the effects of the coming German fiscal package are already correctly priced into the bond market, the analysts say. Only yields on longer maturities should fall slightly, they say. In the U.S., key interest rates are likely to continue to fall. "But we believe the bond market is correctly pricing in a slow approach by the U.S. Fed in an environment of temporarily rising inflation and a weakening labor market," the analysts say. ([email protected])0418 GMT - Australian household spending was sluggish in August, but it's still the case that consumers are spending a lot more than they did a year ago," says Callam Pickering, economist at job site Indeed. While household spending rose just 0.1% in August, it follows solid gains in both June and July. Still, the RBA needs to cut rates again in November to provide sufficient support to households and businesses to ensure that the unemployment rate remains low and a recession is avoided, he says Three cuts this year is a good start, but the RBA's job probably isn't done just yet, he says. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)