Bitcoin Rises Back Above $100K Ahead of Trump Inauguration — Market Talk

0943 GMT - Bitcoin rises back above $100,000 as it regains momentum ahead of Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration as U.S. President. Trump is expected to deliver policies that support digital assets, having vowed to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world. Bitcoin rises 0.1% to $101,766 after hitting a 19-day high of $102,714 overnight, according to LSEG. It reached a record high of $108,379 on December 17 before undergoing a period of consolidation. Cryptocurrencies could bounce back in 2025, Citi Research analysts say in a note. "Potential regulatory changes will be one of the drivers of absolute and relative performance this year." ([email protected])0939 GMT - China's GDP growth likely picked up in the fourth quarter of 2024, thanks to Beijing's stimulus push, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The Chinese economy likely grew 5.1% from a year ago in the October-December period, accelerating from the previous quarter's 4.6% expansion. That would mean the world's second-largest economy met its official growth target of around 5% for 2024, the polled economists say. They expect Beijing to set the same goal this year. China's statistics bureau is set to release the data next Friday. ([email protected])0935 GMT - Japan's central bank looks set to hike rates gradually as the economy progresses toward a virtuous cycle between rising income and spending, HSBC economists say. They see the BOJ taking a gradual rate hike path to 1.0% by 1Q 2026. While GDP likely shrank 0.2% in 2024, they see sequential growth, tipping above-potential growth of 1.3% in 2025. Inflation is projected to stay high at 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, partly as better domestic conditions let firms pass on costs. Risks include tariffs, which would have adverse implications on Japan's growth as a major exporter, HSBC says. Fed policy and its implications for the yen will also be in focus, with BOJ having noted that forex rates are more likely to affect prices than in the past. ([email protected])0915 GMT - The uptick seen in inflation in the Philippines for December is likely temporary, Nomura analysts say, noting that its outlook for an on-target CPI remains intact. The analysts anticipate CPI inflation to average at 2.7% in 2025, down from 3.2% in 2024. The pickup seen last month was led by food inflation, despite rice prices dropping further due to typhoons. Nomura notes that lower rice import tariffs will play out in the coming months. More supply-side measures from the government supports Nomura's view that inflation will be well contained. The analysts maintain their expectations of rate cuts of 75 bps in the BSP's first three meetings of the year starting February. Unless headline inflation surges well above 3%, there is no reason for the central bank to pause, it adds. ([email protected])0900 GMT - Attractive total yields and much cleaner positioning are among the reasons investors consider to reinstate long positions in credit, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. "We had moved to a neutral stance in early December as our positioning indices were suggesting that positioning was getting crowded long," the global economist says. Jefferies' positive view on credit is based on the available total yield rather than based on the available spread, he says. ([email protected])0857 GMT - The finalization of the Johor-Singapore special economic zone could boost employment, support small businesses and drive consumption in Malaysia's Johor state, aided by increased business activity and population growth, MIDF Research says in a note. The SEZ arrangement aims to enhance cross-border connectivity, facilitate worker and tourist mobility and strengthen business ecosystems, it notes. Upgraded technology and improved clearance capacity could further strengthen the program's potential, MIDF adds. Key sectors poised to gain include property, construction, utilities, oil-and-gas and transport, with companies such as Gamuda, Tenaga Nasional and Petronas Chemicals among beneficiaries. ([email protected])0856 GMT - The Canadian dollar rises after Mark Carney said he was considering joining the leadership race for Canada's Liberal party after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned Monday. Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, said in a statement to the Financial Times that he was considering the decision closely with his family over the coming days. "Carney would be the most market-friendly candidate, but the domestic political shake-up will be insufficient to drive USD/CAD materially lower by itself," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The Canadian dollar could remain weak as the prospect of trade tariffs under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will hit Canada, he says. USD/CAD falls 0.2% to 1.4310. ([email protected])0854 GMT - China's consumption likely grew at a faster pace in December, while investment and industrial output may have stabilized, according to a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal. That would suggest that Beijing's recent stimulus blitz has helped energize the economy. Retail sales, a proxy for consumption, are expected to have risen 3.5% on the year last month, compared with November's 3.0% increase. Fixed-asset investment likely climbed 3.3% last year, matching the pace seen in the January-November period. Industrial production meanwhile is expected to have risen 5.4% last month, the same as November. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the data next Friday. ([email protected])0853 GMT - If the dollar keeps strengthening, Indonesia's central bank may be forced to keep monetary policy tighter for longer, hurting economic growth, HSBC economists say. Even as Indonesia's trade balance remains in surplus, there have been portfolio outflows recently, Pranjul Bhandari and Aayushi Chaudhary say. A weak FDI environment amid global policy uncertainty--especially on tariffs--and continued USD strength would cast a shadow over the rupiah, they say. They expect BI rate cuts to be more gradual, given its mandate for a strong IDR. HSBC pencils in three rate cuts in 2025 between 1Q and 2Q, taking the policy rate to 5.25% by June. Downside risks for the economy include blanket U.S. tariffs and a continued decline in global palm oil or coal prices. ([email protected])0853 GMT - The euro could rise further if eurozone inflation data at 1000 GMT are higher than expected, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. If the data exceed forecasts, particularly core inflation, this could further rein in the expected scale of this year's European Central Bank interest-rate cuts after Monday's higher-than-expected German inflation print, he says. The euro is holding onto gains made after the Washington Post reported that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could soften his stance on trade tariffs, although Trump denied the story. "We consider this a fair adjustment after EUR/USD overshot on the downside last week," Turner says. The euro could rise further to $1.05, he says. The euro is last up 0.2% at $1.0411. ([email protected])0848 GMT - China's outbound shipments likely rose 7.4% on year in December, accelerating from November's 6.7% increase, according to a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal. The faster growth was likely supported by the continued front-loading of exports before more U.S. tariffs are imposed, economists say. Imports are expected to have declined 1.2% on year, compared with the 3.9% drop in November, suggesting tepid domestic demand. That would bring the trade surplus to an estimated $99.75 billion versus November's $97.44 billion. China's customs bureau is scheduled to release the data on Monday. ([email protected])0843 GMT - Chinese banks likely boosted lending in December, mostly due to seasonal factors, according to a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal. New yuan loans likely stood at CNY850 billion in December, according to the poll. This would mark an increase from the CNY580 billion in November while lower than the CNY1.09 trillion seen in the same month a year earlier. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, may have increased 7.3% on year, edging up from November's 7.1%. The People's Bank of China is likely to release the credit data in the following days. ([email protected])