
Bitcoin Rises as Israel-Iran Cease-fire Boosts Sentiment — Market Talk
0707 GMT - Bitcoin rises as a cease-fire between Israel and Iran appeared to hold, supporting demand for risky assets. President Trump announced the cease-fire Monday evening. Strikes between Israel and Iran continued in the hours after the announcement. However, both sides later said they would honor the cease-fire if the other side did the same. Markets will assess the stability of the cease-fire in coming days but are "clearly biased towards playing the optimistic trade," ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $106,455 after reaching a one-month high of $106,837 overnight, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0704 GMT - China's broad property price stabilization in higher-tier cities is likely to materialize at around late 2026, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a research note, citing historical international housing busts. After a 20% correction over four years, real house prices in China could decline another 10% before bottoming out in 2027 if China follows a typical housing bust path, they say. China's case has been different as policymakers have been conservative in announcing stimulus over the past few years despite significant housing downturns. However, insufficient easing could lead to sustained weakness in confidence and private demand as well as prolonged deflation, the analysts say, adding that China could unveil more easing measures if exports slow or the drop in property prices accelerates. ([email protected])0653 GMT - The dollar edges higher after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Powell appeared to pour cold water on the prospect of an rate cut in July in his testimony before Congress Tuesday, pushing back against calls from President Trump to lower rates. The Fed could hold off until December before cutting rates, delivering just one 25 basis points cut this year, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown says in a note. Further helping the dollar, oil prices recover from earlier falls. This comes amid uncertainty over the Israel-Iran conflict after Trump brokered a shaky cease-fire. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 97.925. ([email protected])0617 GMT - Singapore's manufacturing sector could face short-term potential negative impact from U.S. reshoring efforts, says Barnabas Gan, group chief economist and head of market research at RHB Bank. Singapore is deeply integrated into global value chains, given its small, highly open economy. As a key player in international manufacturing and a hub for high-tech production, the city-state faces mounting pressure from shifting investment flows, evolving trade patterns and rising geopolitical uncertainty, Gan says. "The potential redirection of global capital and production back to the U.S. challenges this positioning, especially in sectors where Singapore has built strong capabilities, such as electronics and precision engineering," Gan adds.([email protected])0610 GMT - German Bunds might initially benefit from tailwinds from U.S. Treasurys, with the 10-year yield likely gravitating toward 2.50%, Commerzbank Research's Hauke Siemssen says in a note. "With today's data calendar featuring no major macro releases, there seems to be no trigger to push 10-year Bund yields below the 2.5% mark," the rates strategist says. Without fundamental impetus on Wednesday, Commerzbank Research suggests selling 10-year Bunds in rallies toward 2.50% in yields. Following risk-on mood and Germany's upward revision of third-quarter funding on Tuesday, the 10-year Bund yield closed about 4 basis points higher at 2.545%, according to Tradeweb. ([email protected])0553 GMT - The U.S. Treasury's $70 billion auction of five-year notes on Wednesday is expected to be well received, Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. The supply "should be taken down well," the senior research strategist says. More broadly, market participants have now decisively drawn a line under geopolitical tensions, with peak risk clearly in the rear view mirror, allowing focus to return to the fundamental backdrop, he says. Fed Chair Powell is in his day two of the semi-annual testimony, "though comments should by and large be a reiteration of those made yesterday," Brown says. U.S. Treasury yields are barely changed, with the five-year yield trading at 3.860% and the 10-year yield at 4.292%, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0537 GMT - The Middle East tensions aren't expected to have a material impact on Morningstar DBRS's public sovereign credit ratings for now, the ratings firm says in a note. An oil price spike could exacerbate inflation in the near term. When combined with ongoing trade tensions and prospects of higher tariffs, a deterioration in financial conditions would certainly have some adverse implications for growth in the major economies. "Mounting risks to growth are consequently likely to eventually spur central banks to lower rates," it says. Morningstar DBRS doesn't see downward pressure on its sovereign credit ratings unless there is a prolonged regional conflict and the resulting strains on oil prices and global markets have a more lasting economic and fiscal impact. ([email protected])0512 GMT - Australia's cooling inflation in May should make the central bank confident to deliver three more rate cuts by year-end, bringing the cash rate to 3.1%, says Sunny Nguyen, Head of Australia Economics at Moody's Analytics. With Australia's headline inflation near the bottom of the RBA's 2%-3% target band and core measures at multi-year lows, the RBA has clearer justification to ease, the economist says. The Reserve Bank of Australia's next move to cut rates could come as early as July. Also, with the Israel-Iran ceasefire reducing supply disruption risks, she expects the RBA to look through any temporary oil-driven inflation spikes, particularly given the broader disinflationary trend.([email protected])0345 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid a delicate cease-fire between Iran and Israel, which may underpin risk appetite. It appears the fragile truce between the two countries may hold for now, and more importantly, the Strait of Hormuz could stay open, Maybank analysts say in a FX Research & Strategy report. "We may be seeing some consolidative action" in the greenback against some other currencies, the analysts add. USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2792. ([email protected])0319 GMT - Malaysia's subdued 1.2% inflation in May is likely the low point, with price pressures expected to rise in 2H as new policies take effect, CGS International economists Mas Aida Che Mansor and Nazmi Idrus say in a note. They foresee a brief spike in CPI from July's broader sales-and-service tax, followed by potential boosts from electricity tariff reforms and the targeted removal of RON95 fuel and egg subsidies. Although inflation remains vulnerable to shifts in price controls, subsidies and global commodity prices, they expect weak crude-oil and palm-oil markets in the coming months to soften the impact and maintain their 2025 inflation forecast at 2.0%. ([email protected])0253 GMT - Australia's cooler-than-expected annual trimmed mean inflation reading in May has taken core inflation below the midpoint of the RBA's 2% to 3% target band, as well as below the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast of 2.6% by June. If the current disinflationary impulse persists, a further revision lower in the RBA's inflation forecasts will soon be required, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia. With the deflationary trend becoming more apparent, on top of the tepid growth trajectory of the Australian economy, it reinforces IG's call for the RBA to loosen monetary policy further at its policy meeting on July 8. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0235 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to stand pat on its policy rate later in the day, after cutting rates at its previous two meetings, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a report. However, the senior currency analyst expects the central bank's tone to be dovish amid domestic and external uncertainty. The Pheu Thai Party-led government has significantly weakened following the recent withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai party, Chan notes. MUFG Bank maintains a cautious outlook on the Thai baht due to a confluence of fresh political troubles and global uncertainties.([email protected])