Bitcoin Rises Amid Optimism Over Trump Softening Stance on TariffsMarket Talk

0924 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly as optimism over the Trump administration softening its stance on tariffs improves investor appetite towards risky assets. The cryptocurrency is also supported by news that Arizona has passed a bill allowing the state to invest up to 10% of public funds in digital assets. These developments, coupled with Standard Chartered's forecast for bitcoin to rise to $200,000 by year-end, suggest a favorable environment for the cryptocurrency, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. However, "investors should remain vigilant amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties," he says. Bitcoin rises 0.4% to $94,898, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0917 GMT - China's economy is facing challenges in the coming quarters due to trade tensions, according to Julius Baer economist Sophie Altermatt in a commentary. The Chinese economy grew at a solid pace in 1Q of 2025. However, given the escalation in trade tensions with the U.S., this pace is unlikely to be sustained, the economist says. She notes that China is likely to experience significantly weaker growth in the coming quarters, amid exceptionally high uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook. Part of the drag from external shocks is likely to be offset by stronger policy support, while initiation could take some time, Altermatt notes. ([email protected])0914 GMT - The U.K. Debt Management Office is likely to launch a medium-dated rather than a long-dated U.K. government bond, or gilt, via syndication in mid-May, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. This reflects the DMO's recent shift away from sales of long-dated gilts in favor of shorter-dated gilt sales due to recent ebbing demand for the former. The DMO could launch a new 7-year or 12-year gilt for the May syndication, RBC says. ([email protected])0912 GMT - Yields on long-dated index-linked gilts are expected to move higher in the coming weeks as tariff uncertainty and concerns about longer-term inflation risks resume, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. "Our hunch is that a lot of the recent 'positive' or 'dovish' rhetoric on tariff front is now in the price," the analysts say. Markets could start shifting back towards tariff worries in the coming sessions, they say. ([email protected])0847 GMT - The euro has lost some momentum as a go-to currency due to investors turning away from the dollar on concerns about U.S. President Trump's trade policies, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. Most G-10 currencies have outperformed the euro this week, he says. Massive power outages in Spain and Portugal could have further stung the euro, although there are other considerations too. The options market suggests the euro is the most overbought currency and speculators could unwind bets on a stronger euro if Wednesday's first-quarter eurozone economic growth data Wednesday are weaker than expected. Recent focus on potential U.S. economic weakness and optimism over German fiscal stimulus likely distracted markets from concerns about a weak eurozone economy, Pesole says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1399. ([email protected])0818 GMT - Chinese policymakers may prioritize employment stability over GDP growth in the near term, Goldman Sachs analysts write in a note. Their recent meetings in China suggested that onshore clients have fairly low expectations for stimulus, they add. China's export exposure to the U.S. has declined somewhat since the first Trump administration, with outbound shipments to its Western counterpart accounting for about 2.5% of GDP, they note. But given steep U.S. tariffs, a large share of this output is at risk over the coming quarters, they say. Meanwhile, China's competitive manufacturing sector could continue to gain share in other markets, GS says. "This could redistribute some of the deflationary effects of high tariffs on China to other countries." ([email protected]; @ivy_jiahuihuang)0810 GMT - Spain's economic growth is likely to slow over the rest of a year due to tariff uncertainty, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Melanie Debono writes in a note to clients. The eurozone's fourth-largest economy expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter, figures show Tuesday, slowing slightly from the end of last year but likely still outpacing its major peers in the eurozone. But Spain isn't likely to maintain that pace of growth ahead, Debono says."Investment is likely to now be slowing sharply on the back of the surge in economic uncertainty which we think will outweigh any boost to capex from the continued fall in interest rates," she says. Pantheon expects GDP growth should slow to 0.4% in the second quarter and to 0.2% for the rest of the year.([email protected]; @joshualeokirby)0806 GMT - Gold futures fall as immediate safe-haven demand eases. Futures are down 0.5% at $3,332.40 a troy ounce. Precious metal prices have slid as market participants focus on updates in the U.S. trade negotiations with 17 key international partners, excluding China, ING analysts say in a note. At the same time, a stronger U.S. dollar has added further pressure, making it more expensive to purchase dollar-denominated commodities and increasing its attractiveness as an alternative safe-haven asset. That said, extended uncertainty in U.S.-China trade talks and economic instability should continue to support gold's safe-haven characteristics longer-term, ING says. Prices are still up more than 25% year-to-date on market volatility and ever-shifting U.S. policies, further supported by increased gold ETF inflows and central bank buying, ING adds. ([email protected])0801 GMT - The Hungarian forint trades steady ahead of Hungary's interest rate decision at 1200 GMT. Hungary central bank Governor Mihaly Varga is likely to reiterate that rates will remain unchanged for as long as inflation stays stubbornly high, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. However, this promise may no longer suffice in a risk-averse market environment, he says. "It may be imperative for [the central bank] to credibly signal that it would be willing to hike rates but we suspect that the monetary policy council will struggle to send out such a message." In this case, the currency market could test the central bank during periods of risk aversion. The euro trades flat at 404.300 forint. ([email protected])0800 GMT - Euro-denominated investment-grade services bonds have performed better than other investment-grade peers since the start of 2025 because U.S. trade tariffs only impact goods and not services, CreditSights' Mathieu Le Cann says in a note. Euro IG services bonds trade 7 basis points tighter than the overall ICE BofA euro IG index which tracks euro investment-grade bonds. "In the absence of first-order impacts from tariffs on most services companies, the sector stood among the most resilient during the period of peak spread volatility," CreditSights says. ([email protected])0737 GMT - The Canadian dollar edges lower after Canada's Liberal Party won a fourth term in office but appeared short of a majority in parliament. The currency's slight weakness is "likely due to the fact that the Liberals now need support from smaller parties to push their agenda through parliament," Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Whether Prime Minister Mark Carney can reach a trade deal with the U.S. and address Canada's underlying productivity problem will be crucial for the currency in coming months, he says. The U.S. dollar rises 0.1% to 1.3836 Canadian dollars. ([email protected])0735 GMT - The November 2054 index-linked gilt trades cheap on a relative-value basis, which should support demand at the auction of this bond at 0900 GMT, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. Also supporting demand, this index-linked gilt is approaching the end of its tapping cycle, the analysts say. The bond isn't scheduled to be reopened again in the April to June quarter. ([email protected])