Bitcoin Rises After Above-Forecast U.S. Jobs Data — Market Talk

1027 ET - Bitcoin rises after data showed the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected last month. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 last month, above the 125,000 gain which economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected. The news boosts appetite for risky assets as it cools fears of 'stagflation', or a slowing economy while inflation rises. "For bitcoin, the jobs data reinforces the current macro environment that has supported digital assets thus far," says David Hernandez at crypto investment firm 21Shares in a note. Bitcoin is last up 4% at $104,559, having traded at around $104,014 just before the U.S. jobs data, according to LSEG data. ([email protected])1028 ET - The Canadian labor market is softening, not collapsing, says Royal Bank of Canada's Claire Fan. The small 8,800 rise in employment in May was firmer than expected and shows resilience amidst ongoing trade grievances that sent Canadian exports plunging in April, the economist says. Sectors most exposed to trade headwinds such as manufacturing and transport and warehousing shed jobs. Fan expects trade barriers will remain a headwind but further deterioration in the jobs picture will be contained, with the jobless rate likely peaking at levels slightly above May's 7% reading. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1009 ET - The Labor Department's May jobs report was solid, yet still gave President Trump cause to go after Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, a recurring recent theme. "'Too Late' at the Fed is a disaster!" Trump writes on social media, referring to his own Fed chair appointee by a nickname. "If 'Too Late' at the Fed would CUT, we would greatly reduce interest rates, long and short, on debt that is coming due," Trump added. (In fact, long-term interest rates rose late last year as the Fed cut rates, because they are largely shaped not by immediate Fed actions but by how investors expect the Fed will move in the future.) ([email protected]; @mattgrossman)0936 ET - Canada's jobs market treads water in May, says economist Leslie Preston at TD Bank. This jobs report puts another mark in the economic-weakness tally, she says, that ultimately leads to further Bank of Canada rate cuts. She notes the unemployment rate rose to a near-decade high, and trade-exposed sectors continue to shed jobs amid President Trump's hefty tariffs. Preston says annual wage increases held steady in May, at about 3.4%, but that marks a sharp slowdown from the 5% pace from a year ago. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0936 ET - The euro and sterling fall against a broadly firmer dollar after U.S. data showed more jobs were created in May than expected. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 last month. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 125,000 gain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Wage growth was also higher than expected, suggesting that the economy is very healthy, says Wealth Club's Nicholas Hyett in a note. Interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months are looking less likely, the investment manager says. The euro falls 0.5% to $1.1388, from $1.1411 before the data. Sterling loses 0.3% to $1.3528, from $1.3545 previously. ([email protected])0932 ET - Canada's jobs data surprised on the upside but nonetheless paints a portrait of a weakening labor market that has yet to fully reverse a big employment drop in March, say analysts at Capital Economics. "The labor market is struggling," says the forecasting firm, noting the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2016. Net employment rose by a meager 8,800, and the private sector added jobs for the first time since January. Even so, the data indicate basically no employment growth in Canada since the start of 2025, as the country copes with President Trump's hefty tariffs. CapEcon maintains its call for deeper-than-anticipated rate cuts to support the economy. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0930 ET - Canada's labor market continues to weaken, although at a gradual pace based on employment data for May, says economist Andrew Grantham from CIBC Capital Markets. The economy added 8,800 jobs, but the number of unemployed jumped by 26,500, leading to an increase in the jobless rate to a near-decade high when the Covid-19 pandemic period is excluded. Grantham says employment fell in trade-sensitive sectors, like manufacturing and logistics, although that was offset by notable gain in wholesaling and retailing. Plus, hours worked was unchanged in May, as a notable 57,700 gain in full-time employment was offset by a 49,000 reduction in part-time jobs. Grantham says while the data "were not quite as bad as expected," they still support CIBC's call for a return of rate cuts in late July. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)0927 ET - The Canadian labor market hasn't fallen off a cliff, but what strength it carried into 2025 has faded amid the ongoing trade war with President Trump. Employment is up a net 17,300 so far this year through May, but only thanks to bumper hiring in January. Strip that out, and employment has fallen 15,300, which statistically is essentially no growth. The jobless rate has edged up 0.4 percentage point in the last three months to 7%, which outside the peak pandemic years is the highest since September 2016. Polls suggest hiring intentions remain moribund, though there haven't been sweeping layoffs so far this year. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)0925 ET - Job creation last month in the U.S. wasn't as good as it looks, Capital Economics' Stephen Brown writes. Payrolls beat expectations, with an 139,000 gain. He says gains were concentrated in a few sectors in the services industry, while manufacturing jobs fell by 8,000. Brown adds that downward revisions to previous months' figures mean the three-month average is now 135,000, down from 160,000 in 2024. Steady 4.2% unemployment rate reflects slower labor supply growth, "as immigration curbs bite," he says. The data keep Brown "comfortable with our view that the Fed will remain on hold this year." ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)0918 ET - Business-services firm ADP publishes a timely monthly look at private-sector hiring a few days before the official jobs numbers come out. This week, the data series showed a big decrease in the pace of hiring in May, suggesting weak official figures might follow. But the official hiring data from the Labor Department came in above expectations Friday. "The private payrolls apocalypse predicted by ADP did not happen in the real BLS data!" economist Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics writes, referring to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts out the official numbers. It was the second straight month that a downbeat ADP report preceded a solid print of official jobs data. ([email protected]; @mattgrossman)0914 ET - U.S. labor data looks unlikely to push the Fed to cut rates sooner. AllianceBernstein's Eric Winograd writes that "it won't be until the end of the summer that the Fed is realistically back in action." Job creation was higher than expected, but unemployment was steady at 4.2% and wages growth accelerated only slightly. The share of the population employed or seeking employment remained within a tight range, at 62.4%. CME data shows some increase on bets that the Fed won't cut rates until September and maybe cut once again by year end. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.467% and the two-year at 3.997%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)0904 ET - Yields on short-term U.K. government bonds climb, tracking rises in U.S. Treasury yields, after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The data are likely to encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold as it assesses the impact of the U.S. trade policy on the economy, Omnis Investments' Patrick O'Donnell says in a note. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 last month, above the 125,000 gain which economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected. The 2-year gilt yield climbs 3 basis points to last trade at 4.045% after the data release, from 4.010% beforehand, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])