Bitcoin Lifted Higher by Tech Stock Rally — Market Talk
0818 GMT - Bitcoin rises as Asian stocks are pulled higher by tech stocks, tracking Friday's U.S. tech-rally. Oracle led the gains in U.S. tech stocks after reports that it might host TikTok's U.S. user data under a U.S.-China arrangement that allows the Chinese app to continue operating in the U.S. U.S. stock futures point to a higher open Monday, indicating continued optimism among equity investors, IG analysts say in a note. Bitcoin rises 1.2% to $89,229, according to LSEG. However, the cryptocurrency has been struggling to rise back above the key $90,000 level in recent sessions and has fallen from a record high of $126,223 reached in October. ([email protected])0817 GMT - Treasury yields rise, reversing last week's falls. They track a rise in Japanese government bond yields after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates on Friday, with a further increase looking likely. Traders await delayed first-estimate U.S. third-quarter GDP data at 1330 GMT. Any weakness could add to prospects of U.S. interest-rate cuts and send Treasury yields lower, especially after recent below-forecast inflation figures. The Conference Board's December consumer confidence index at 1500 GMT will also be watched. Trade could slow after that due to the holiday-shortened trading week. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.4 basis points to 4.165%, having hit a low of 4.108% hit on Thursday, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0802 GMT - Sterling rises in a holiday-thinned trading week as even as data confirmed the U.K. economy grew just 0.1% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. Although growth was unrevised, the "shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than previously estimated," Capital Economics economist Alex Kerr says in a note. Sterling rises 0.3% on the day to an intraday high of $1.3418 after the data, from $1.3394 beforehand. The euro falls to an intraday low of 0.8735 pounds, from 0.8744 before the data. ([email protected])0744 GMT - The dollar trades steady as investors look ahead to a few U.S. economic data releases in a holiday-shortened trading week. Data on U.S. third-quarter economic growth and durable goods orders will be released Tuesday along with the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey. Liquidity looks set to be thin this week with many traders on a break for Christmas. U.S. stock and bond markets close early Wednesday and are closed Thursday for the Christmas holiday. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 98.596. ([email protected])0739 GMT - Singapore's November industrial production print is likely to be stellar, say Moody's Analytics economists in a note. The city-state's exports for November were better than the economists had expected, thanks to the electronics and pharmaceutical segments. The economists expect this trend to be reflected in Singapore's factory output for the same month. The index likely rose around 20% from a year earlier, buoyed by robust electronics and biomedical divisions, they say. "Surprisingly, manufacturing output [has] surged since higher U.S. tariffs took effect on several trading partners in August," they add. Singapore's industrial production data is due Friday. ([email protected])0457 GMT - India is playing the long game on trade and economic reforms, Nomura research analysts write in a note. Government policies are focused on diversifying exports, reforming capital markets and attracting long-term capital to strengthen its economy, they say. More bilateral trade agreements are in the works. At the same time, moves to open strategically important sectors--such as allowing 100% foreign direct investments in insurance companies, permitting greater private and foreign participation in the nuclear power space, as well as advancing capital market reforms--signal confidence in private-sector-led growth, the analysts add. Efforts to improve the ease of doing business are expected to continue as India seeks to reduce reliance on the U.S. while trade talks continue, they add. ([email protected])0409 GMT - The yen is likely to remain weak as long as the Bank of Japan sticks to its view that the underlying price trend in Japan is below its 2% target, says Nobuyasu Atago, economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute. "The true cause of the yen's weakness is not the low neutral interest rate, but rather the BOJ's persistent easing stance--specifically the rhetoric that underlying inflation has not yet reached 2%, even in an environment that appears highly inflationary from an international perspective," he says. "Without a change in this narrative, downward pressure on the yen is likely to continue, especially when coupled with the fiscal expansion anticipated under the Takaichi administration." ([email protected])0340 GMT - A decline in Malaysia's trade surplus is likely to weigh on 4Q current account and GDP figures, while underlying trade fundamentals may remain supportive, CIMB economists Chew Khai Yen and Lim Yee Ping say in a note. November's sharp 56.8% jump in imports of capital goods point to robust fixed capital formation, indicating high investment momentum, they note. The upcycle in technology remains a key growth driver, with double-digit electrical and electronics export growth likely to offset risks from volatile commodity prices, they say. CIMB maintains its 2025 Malaysia GDP growth forecast at 4.5%. ([email protected])0339 GMT - South Korea's semiconductor export growth is likely to accelerate next year, Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim writes in a note. Kim expects South Korea's chip exports to grow around 56% in 2026, faster than an estimated 23% in 2025, driven by an increase in the global artificial-intelligence capital expenditure. For the first 20 days of December, the country's semiconductor exports marked a record high. Exports of chips, solid-state drives and smartphones all surged while those of autos, car parts and steel contracted during the period. Kim expects South Korea's overall exports for December to have expanded 10% on year, compared with 8.4% growth in November. ([email protected])0307 GMT - Singapore's consumer-price index likely rose 1.2% year over year in November, according to the median estimate of six economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The median forecast represents no change from October's 1.2% increase, but Nomura economists say in an email that they expect a 1.3% increase. They attribute the likely acceleration to a further increase in private transportation costs. The closely watched core CPI, which excludes private road transport and accommodation, likely rose 1.25%, accelerating from the 1.2% climb in October, according to the polled economists. Nomura attributes this gain to rising food, clothing and footwear prices, as well as base effects. The CPI data are due Tuesday. ([email protected])0243 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session amid a lack of fresh catalysts. Meanwhile, the USD/SGD daily chart shows signs that bearish momentum is fading, with the relative strength index higher, notes OCBC's Christopher Wong. "More broadly, we monitor if a cup-and-saucer pattern appears to be forming," says the FX strategist. "This can be a bullish setup for the medium term." Resistance is seen at 1.2950-1.2960, while support lies at 1.2900 and 1.2870 levels, Wong adds. USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2925. ([email protected])0234 GMT - Japanese government bonds fall further due to concerns that yen weakness may pressure the Bank of Japan to raise rates more quickly than previously thought. Investors appear to be "taking the view that yen depreciation will eventually prompt a faster pace of rate hikes" by the BOJ, SMBC Nikko Securities' Ataru Okumura says in commentary. The two-year JGB yield rises 3 bps to 1.120%, the 10-year yield climbs 7.5 bps to 2.095% and the 30-year yield is up 3 bps at 3.445%. ([email protected])