Bitcoin Hits 2-Week Low on Profit-Taking — Market Talk

0913 GMT - Bitcoin falls to a two-week low as investors take profits after the cryptocurrency's recent rally. Data from CoinGlass show investors closing earlier bets on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rising. Some $383 million in long positions have been closed in the past 24 hours with bitcoin accounting for $141 million of the total, the data show. It follows recent gains in cryptocurrencies after the U.S. passed three crypto bills on regulation for the industry last week. Bitcoin falls to a low of $114,779, having reached a record high of $123,153 last Monday, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0843 GMT - Treasury yields rise after U.S. data Thursday showed improvements in the economy. U.S. interest-rate cuts over the coming two months look less likely as a result. U.S. weekly jobless claims fell while U.S. purchasing managers' surveys showed the composite activity measure reached a seven-month high of 54.6. "With that strong data in hand, investors dialed back the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts," in turn lifting Treasury yields, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Increases in yields are limited, however, as President Trump continues to call for the central bank to lower rates. The 10-year Treasury yield rises nearly 1 basis point on the day to 4.416%, albeit staying below Thursday's intraday peak of 4.442%, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0842 GMT - The euro falls against the dollar after a key survey showed German business sentiment improved by less than expected in July. The ifo business climate index rose to 88.6 in July from 88.4 in June. Economists in a WSJ survey expected the index to rise to 89.0. The business expectations gauge increased to 90.7 in July from 90.6 in June, also below the 91.2 forecast. The euro falls to $1.1741 after the data, from $1.1752 beforehand. The 10-year German Bund yield is last up 6 basis points to 2.760%, little changed from levels before the data, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0837 GMT - The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone straddling Singapore and Malaysia is attracting interest from beyond the region, says Ng Wei Wei, chief executive of United Overseas Bank Malaysia in an emailed interview. Many multinational corporations with established regional hubs in Singapore view the project as a strategic step for expansion, Ng says. Beyond Singapore, UOB is seeing active engagement from companies headquartered in China, Japan and South Korea. "More recently, we have noted growing interest from the western bloc, including Germany, France and the United States," Ng says. She adds that companies are closely monitoring the regulatory framework to come, especially around cross-border governance and long-term policy alignment. ([email protected])0823 GMT - Sterling is likely to remain weak after hitting a three-and-a-half-month low against the euro in reaction to U.K. retail sales data undershooting forecasts, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. "The fiscal situation in the U.K. looks unlikely to improve any time soon, and that should continue to drag on the pound as the outlook in Europe improves." The analysts see few signs of a turnaround on the horizon for sterling. U.K. retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, below the 1.5% increase forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. The euro rises 0.3% to a high of 0.8726 pounds. ([email protected])0748 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, rise slightly but by much less than their eurozone counterparts after U.K. retail sales data missed expectations. Retail sales rose 0.9% in June compared to a month ago. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a 1.5% increase. It follows a 2.8% decline in May, revised from the previously reported 2.7% fall. An interest-rate cut by the Bank of England in August looks increasingly likely, with money markets currently pricing an 82% chance of this, LSEG data show. The 10-year gilt yield rises 1.7 basis points to 4.646%, Tradeweb data show. By contrast, the 10-year German Bund yield rises 7 basis points to a four-month high of 2.767% as prospects of further European Central Bank rate cuts fade. ([email protected])0735 GMT - Yields on eurozone government bonds rise, with the 10-year benchmark German Bund yield hitting a four-month high, as further interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank look increasingly unlikely. The central bank held rates on Thursday, as expected, and pointed to a resilient economy, while tariff risks are ebbing. The Wall Street Journal reported that the European Union and U.S. are nearing a deal that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods. "The odds have clearly shifted in favor of no cut," Commerzbank analysts say in a note. Eurozone money markets price less than a 50% chance of a December rate cut, LSEG data show. German 10-year Bund yields rise 4 basis points to a high of 2.743%, according to Tradeweb. ([email protected])0731 GMT - The euro could rise if a key survey on German business sentiment improves further, ING analyst Chris Turner says. The ifo business climate index could rise in July, helped by increased fiscal stimulus. That would raise optimism over the economic outlook after European Central Bank described the economy as resilient and better than anticipated at Thursday's policy meeting. The euro could rise above $1.1830, from $1.1751 currently, he says. Against sterling, the euro could rise to 0.8735 pounds given recent weak U.K. economic activity, he says. The euro rises to a three-and-a-half-month high of 0.8715 pounds after U.K. retail sales data missed expectations. Ifo data are due at 0800 GMT. ([email protected])0728 GMT - Oil prices rise as trade-talk optimism appears to offset expectations of higher Venezuelan supply. In early trade, Brent crude is up 0.7% to $68.82 a barrel, while WTI is up 0.8% to $66.54 a barrel. "It looks like talks with the EU are moving in the right direction," ING analysts say. "These deals should help reduce uncertainty and also ease some of the demand concerns that have been lingering in the oil market." Meanwhile, President Trump gave Chevron the green light to resume pumping oil in Venezuela--a move that should see Venezuelan oil exports increase by more than 200,000 barrels a day and ease some tightness in the heavier crude market, according to ING. ([email protected])0715 GMT - The U.S. Fed is likely to hold its policy rate steady for the fifth meeting in a row, according to HSBC economist Ryan Wang in a research note. Policymakers have expressed different views on the appropriate near-term path for policy ahead of meeting by the end of this month, he says. The hold decision may see one or more dissents as Fed Gov. Waller has expressed support for a July rate cut, he notes. Chair Powell may also face questions about the Fed's independence, he adds. ([email protected])0706 GMT - Sterling falls to a three-and-a-half-month low against the euro after data showed U.K. retail sales rose by less than expected in June. Retail sales rose 0.9% compared to a month ago. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a 1.5% increase. May's print was revised to show a 2.8% decline compared to the 2.7% fall initially reported. "The sharp fall in May and underwhelming recovery in June suggest that the consumer isn't in a position of strength," Wealth Club's Isaac Stell says in a note. It comes amid a weakening labor market and rising inflation, he says. The euro rises to a high of 0.8712 pounds after the data from 0.8694 beforehand. Sterling falls to $1.3488 against the dollar, from $1.3502 beforehand. ([email protected])0658 GMT - The dollar recovers marginally on cautious optimism over U.S. trade deals. The Euroepan Union and U.S. are nearing a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods, The Wall Street Journal reports. The EU has approved a package of retaliatory tariffs if no deal is reached. Earlier in the week the U.S. announced a trade deal with Japan. The currency remains weak, however, as uncertainty remains elevated before the August 1 deadline for tariffs. Concerns also linger about Federal Reserve independence. President Trump clashed with Fed Chair Jerome Powell Thursday over the cost of the refurbishment of the Fed's headquarters. Trump has put increasing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 97.503 after hitting a two-and-a-half-week low of 97.109 Thursday. ([email protected])