Bitcoin Falls to 2-Month Low After Tech Slump — Market Talk
0707 GMT - Bitcoin falls to a two-month low following a slump in U.S. tech stocks. The S&P 500 dropped sharply Friday as earnings from semiconductor giant Nvidia earlier in the week dampened investor sentiment. Nvidia's revenue forecast failed to meet investors' highest expectations. Its data-center revenue for the second quarter also missed analysts' estimates. Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note that the investment bank remains positive on the tech sector in the medium term as the artificial intelligence cycle is just starting. However, "we are unlikely to see the growth or returns that we have witnessed over the last two years," he says. Bitcoin falls to a low of $107,304, LSEG data show.([email protected])0652 GMT - The dollar falls to a 5-week low against a basket of currencies as investors turn cautious ahead of key U.S. jobs data. Investors will be keenly watching whether rising Federal Reserve rate-cut pricing is validated by U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Other labor market data this week include the job openings and labor turnover survey Wednesday and ADP's private payrolls report Thursday. Investors are also monitoring Fed Governor Lisa Cook's fight to block her dismissal by President Trump. Elsewhere, uncertainty over trade remains elevated after an appeals court ruled most of Trump's tariffs are illegal. The DXY dollar index falls to a low of 97.553. ([email protected])0633 GMT - Thailand faces another bout of political uncertainty, after the removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as Prime Minister, OCBC economists write in a note. The uncertainty could be shortened if another Prime Minister is appointed or be prolonged if that doesn't materialize, they say. "Thailand is no stranger to political uncertainty and has witnessed numerous occasions in recent history which has led to the [Prime Minister] being removed," they say. However, the country's growth outlook, which is already softening, will be likely be dampened further by domestic political uncertainties, they add.([email protected])0625 GMT - German 10-year Bunds provide an opportunity to buy when yields are above 2.72%, says Commerzbank Research's Rainer Guntermann in a note. "Overall, with risk sentiment remaining shaky and tailwinds from the data, Bunds should be better supported and we suggest buying dips with 10-year yields above 2.72%," the rates strategist says. U.S. data will be in focus this week, with nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. In the eurozone, flash estimate inflation data for August will be awaited on Tuesday. The 10-year Bund yield rises 2 basis points to 2.744%, according to LSEG data. ([email protected])0614 GMT - Portuguese government bond yields edge higher after S&P Global Ratings upgraded the sovereign's credit rating to A+ from A with a stable outlook due to improving debt path. "Even with rising defense spending pressures and domestic political instability, Portugal's sound budgetary trajectory puts government debt on a firm downward path," the ratings firm said. S&P expects relatively smooth policy implementation by the government, geared toward fiscal prudence, despite a fragmented parliament. The 10-year Portuguese bond yield is up 0.5 basis point at 3.182% after market opening, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0601 GMT - AllianceBernstein anticipated the coming French confidence vote as inevitable, given the difficult budget discussions France must undertake with a fragmented parliament, says John Taylor, head of European fixed income. "Consequently, we have been underweight in French sovereign debt across our global and European accounts, as the market seemed to have underestimated this risk," he says in a note. AllianceBernstein believes the risk will remain isolated to French sovereign and agency debt, and therefore maintains its overweight position in the euro currency, he says. While volatility may persist in the coming weeks, AllianceBernstein sees widening of the French government bond yield spread as a buying opportunity, Taylor says. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has called for a confidence vote on Sept. 8. ([email protected])0552 GMT - Australian inflation expectations fell in August, affirming the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish guidance. The Melbourne Institute's headline monthly inflation gauge fell by 0.3% in August, with the annual growth rate easing to 2.8% from July's 2.9%. The trimmed mean monthly inflation gauge dipped 0.2% in August, with the annual growth rate dipping to 2.4% from July's 2.6%, slightly below the mid-point of the RBA's 2-3% inflation target. Reading like this will please RBA Governor Michele Bullock as she prepares to speak publicly on Wednesday. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0549 GMT - Bond markets are already pricing in enough premium for France's deficit deteriorating, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. They expect government bond yield spreads to ultimately tighten unless risks of fresh elections rise, they say. "We also see limited room for spillovers to other sovereign spread markets, or to Bunds--although we do think the risk-reward in Bund swap spread tightening is currently poor," they say. The 10-year French-German government bond yield spread widened to above 80 basis points last week, as French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called for a confidence vote on Sept. 8, before narrowing back below 80 basis points later in the week, according to Tradeweb data. ([email protected])0539 GMT - Despite relative stability at the very front-end of the U.S. Treasury curve, rate-cut pricing in 2026 has continued to build alongside a rise in risk premium in long-end Treasurys, say Goldman Sachs analysts. This has resulted in a steeper yield curve than the fundamental picture would typically justify, they say in a note. While risks surrounding the future composition of the Federal Reserve will likely persist, the busy upcoming data calendar should see the market return its focus to 2025 pricing, they say. U.S. Treasury yields rise in Asian trade; the 10-year yield is up 2.5 basis points at 4.231, while the 30-year yield is up 5.7bps at 4.928%, according to Tradeweb. ([email protected])0526 GMT - Both the governor and the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia are scheduled to speak publicly this week, providing opportunities for the central bank to cement its cautious narrative around cutting interest rates. Gov. Michele Bullock will speak on Wednesday, but her topic hasn't been declared. She is almost certain to point to data last week showing a spike up in monthly inflation, highlighting the need for a measured approach to further cuts. Deputy Gov. Andrew Hauser is expected to also affirm the approach, with markets expecting a few more cuts over the next six months. Hauser speaks on Thursday. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0348 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the morning session amid risk-off sentiment. U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday amid a selloff in artificial-intelligence-linked shares. "The market is bracing for what is known as the weakest month for U.S. shares, as institutional investors rebalance, retail traders slow their buying and volatility picks up," UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team writes in a commentary. USD/SGD is flat at 1.2828, LSEG data shows. ([email protected])0219 GMT - The Indonesian rupiah will likely be weighed by political risks, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan writes in a research report. The rupiah weakened toward the 16,500 level as markets reassessed political risk amid street protests over government plans to raise lawmakers' housing allowances, the senior currency analyst says. Demonstrations spread beyond Jakarta over the weekend. In response, President Prabowo Subianto said the proposed perks will be scrapped to calm public unrest. "Assuming the situation stabilizes, markets may begin to unwind the risk premium priced into the rupiah last week," Chan says. USD/IDR is last around 16,470, LSEG data shows. ([email protected])