Bitcoin Eyes $100k, But Traders Brace For Volatility — Market Talk

0958 ET - Bitcoin is drawing nearer to the $100,000/coin threshold it first breached late last year, fueled by excitement over the trade deal President Trump is expected to announce between the U.S. and UK this morning. But traders should prepare for the rally to fizzle, says Nic Puckrin of the Coin Bureau. "It's quite likely the announcement will be lacking any concrete details, setting out a general framework for a deal that will take months to materialize, which could be anticlimactic," says Puckrin in a note. He also warns that BTC volume is light, making it more exposed to sharp moves in trading. Bitcoin is trading at $99,189.62 a coin, up 2.3% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. ([email protected])0949 ET - Value is the name of the game for restaurant chains in this economic environment, and pizza brand Papa John's International says it's working to improve how consumers perceive what they get for their money. "We all see it. We've seen an intensification on competitive pressures and the promotional cycles," Papa John's says during its analyst call. The chain says it's promoting medium pizzas at sharper prices and more affordable carryout pies. Papa John's North American same-store sales declined 3% in 1Q, but the company kept 2025 expectations for growth. Papa John's surges 12 in early trading. ([email protected]; @heatherhaddon)0944 ET - Shopify's global reach and diversity means that the tariff risk for merchant sourcing is minimal when looking at the larger picture. On an analyst call, executives say that since its merchants are spread across the globe, where they source their products will have different tariff rates and different end-markets where they sell their products. "Net-net we're not seeing meaningful impact on GMV," they say. ([email protected])0939 ET - Fast-food owner Restaurant Brands International reported a 1.1% decline in same-store sales in its U.S. Burger King business in 1Q, which the company says outperformed the broader burger sector. The company says that investing in remodels and better operations in its domestic Burger King business is starting to pay off, though there's more work to do. "We're continuing to take steps to transition restaurants into the hands of more engaged operators," the company says. ([email protected]; @heatherhaddon)0903 ET - U.S. Treasurys trade lower, pushing up yields, after an uneventful Fed meeting made for mostly smooth sailing in rates markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's emphasis on a wait-and-see approach led traders to discount a June rate cut: Their bets now reflect 80% odds the Fed will hold rates steady next month, up from just 42% odds a week ago. Signs of some tariff de-escalation, including an apparent trade deal with the U.K. and negotiations with China this weekend, have brought some stability to markets and pushed short-term Treasury yields higher to start May. A stronger jobless-claims report than last week's gives traders some confidence the labor market remains solid. The 10-year yield trades around 4.304%, versus 4.272% at Wednesday's close, and the 2-year yield trades around 3.822% compared with a 3.788% close Wednesday. ([email protected]; @mattgrossman)0900 ET - Bitcoin could soon reach all-time highs as investment flows into the cryptocurrency rise, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick says in a note. Spot bitcoin exchange traded funds have seen $5.3 billion of inflows over the past three weeks, he says. Strategy, formerly known as Microstrategy, has also increased purchases and planned buying. Notably, the Swiss National Bank recently started buying Strategy shares. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund is likely to have increased its bitcoin holdings while other long-term type buyers to have also joined in. StanChart expects bitcoin to rise to $120,000 by the second quarter. Bitcoin rises 2.7% to $99,379, having earlier reached a three-month high of $99,874, according to LSEG. ([email protected])0810 ET - Krispy Kreme says it's reassessing its rollout schedule in McDonald's U.S. restaurants as the doughnut supplier "works to achieve a profitable business model for all parties." Krispy Kreme says it doesn't expect to add its doughnuts to any additional McDonald's locations in 2Q. It currently supplies more than 2,400 McDonald's restaurants. The company scrapped its guidance due to the McDonald's pause and economic uncertainties, and didn't provide new figures. Krispy Kreme slides 25% premarket. ([email protected]; @heatherhaddon)0348 ET - Stock markets rise on increased optimism about easing trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he would announce a major trade deal later. People familiar with the negotiations said Trump would announce a framework of a trade deal with the U.K. "The news boosted sentiment across global equity markets, lifting Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures, while also sending FTSE futures and sterling higher in Asian trading," IG analysts say in a note. The pan-European index Stoxx Europe 600 climbs 0.2% to 534.95 while the U.K. FTSE 100 stocks index rises 0.1% to 8,564.7 points and U.S. stock futures point to a higher opening on Wall Street. ([email protected])0340 ET - Zurich Insurance's print was broadly positive though the disclosure was limited, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods says in a research note after the Swiss group's update. "We think the non-life rating narrative and commentary about expanding margins in both commercial and personal lines is positive versus expectations," analyst William Hawkins writes. The feared deceleration in U.S. commercial property rate momentum doesn't seem to materialize, he adds. The analyst also notes better pricing but softer volume growth which can be seen as a function of further portfolio optimization. Shares have been relatively weak since November's business plan update so expectations might be low, Hawkins adds. The stock trades 0.6% lower at 589 Swiss francs. ([email protected])0316 ET - U.K. financials, cyclicals, and domestic stocks have cheap valuations relative to their U.S. peers, and are likely to perform better than their counterparts, Clive Beagles, senior fund manager at JO Hambro says in a note. However, U.K. defensive stocks such as Bunzl have expensive valuations following years of outperformance, he says. Overall, the U.K. market is "cheap compared to the rest of the world and other major markets," Beagles says. ([email protected])0232 ET - German industry's rebound might not last, Franziska Palmas at Capital Economics cautions, after output from the country's factories increased more than expected at the end of the first quarter. March's 3.0% increase in production shows that conditions have, at least, stopped deteriorating, Palmas says. But some of that boost will have come from a rush among American firms to stockpile imports ahead of April's tariff announcement, she notes. That halo will fade, and a further drag might come from a rerouting of Chinese exports away from the U.S., Palmas says."The [export] sector will also continue to struggle with dwindling competitiveness and a structural decline in demand for autos," she says. "The upshot is that we wouldn't be surprised to see German industrial output contract again in the next six months or so."([email protected]; @joshualeokirby)