Bitcoin Eases From Highs as Traders Take Profits — Market Talk
0815 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly but has pulled back from the four-week high reached in the previous session as some traders take profits. Risk sentiment improves after President Trump announced another 90-day pause on higher tariffs against China. He also indicated he would consider allowing Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of its advanced chips in China. This helps "alleviate market worries about escalating technology sanctions and possible supply-chain disruptions," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. However, uncertainty remains elevated and investors are cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT. Bitcoin rises 0.1% to $119,019, having reached a high of $122,308 Monday, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0811 GMT - Pressures on the U.K. labor market should help bring price inflation down to the Bank of England's desired level, Capital Economics' Ashley Webb writes in a note to clients. Unemployment rose over the three months through June as vacancies and payroll numbers fell back, according to figures published Tuesday. Average regular pay continued to increase at the fairly zippy rate of 5.0%, but the loosening of the wider jobs market suggests that this rate should start to slow again ahead, Webb says. "We think it's only a matter of time before wage growth slows to rates consistent with the 2% inflation target," he says. ([email protected]; @joshualeokirby)0807 GMT - The U.K. labor market appears more stable, making it less likely that the Bank of England will cut interest rates later this year, writes Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM U.K. While unemployment inched higher over the second quarter, pay growth was stable over the three months through June, and the drop in payrolls slowed in July, according to figures set out Tuesday. That suggests the worst of the adjustment to recent job-tax increases is now behind us and the market is stabilizing, Pugh says. "A healthier labor market at the start of the summer makes a November rate cut seem like a long shot now," he tells investors in a note. ([email protected]; @joshualeokirby)0755 GMT - The March 2030 gilt trades cheap after declining over the past week, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. The bond has an attractive relative value which is likely to support its auction at 0900 GMT, the strategists say. Tuesday's auction is likely the bond's penultimate tap, a factor which is also likely to support demand, RBC says. ([email protected])0739 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise after labor market data showed some resilience. The U.K. estimate of payrolled employees fell modestly by 8,000 in July. This small decline shows that the U.K.'s weak labor market may be improving, ING's James Smith says in a note. The lack of significant deterioration lowers the possibility of fast interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England. A combination of better jobs data and higher-than-expected inflation data next week could cast doubts over whether the BOE will cut rates in November, Smith says. The 10-year gilt yield climbs 3 basis points to 4.597%, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0730 GMT - Singapore's 2H economic growth is expected to slow, says Barnabas Gan, group chief economist and head of market research at RHB Bank, in a note. Outward-oriented sectors, particularly manufacturing, could weaken amid softer global demand and the U.S. tariff impact. Growth for Singapore's key trading partners is also likely to cool as the boost from front-loading fades and U.S. tariffs take effect. "While recent momentum has been supported by pre-emptive export surges ahead of potential U.S. tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, the broader trade outlook remains cautious," Gan says. RHB maintains its 2025 growth forecast for Singapore at 2.0%. The Southeast Asian economy expanded 4.3% in 1H. ([email protected])0728 GMT - The U.K.'s jobs data released on Tuesday shows weakness in the labor market and could raise the chances of the Bank of England cutting interest rates further, Quilter Cheviot's Richard Carter says in a note. The early estimate of payrolled employees fell by 8,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained elevated at 4.7%. "Given Tuesday's weak employment numbers, the case for another rate cut before the end of the year is now even stronger," Carter says. ([email protected])0721 GMT - Treasury yields rise ahead of U.S. inflation data for July at 1230 GMT. Recent weak jobs data caused investors to anticipate that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September. However, tariffs are expected to increase inflation. Higher-than-expected data could question rate-cut prospects and cause yields to rise. ING rates strategists say markets could show little reaction if Tuesday's data match expectations, but investors will remain wary of inflation risks in the coming months. Economists in a WSJ survey forecast annual CPI inflation at 2.8% in July, versus 2.7% in June. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.4 basis points to 4.287%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rises 2 basis points to 3.774%, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0720 GMT - The Swiss franc rises after President Trump said Monday he would not impose tariffs on imported gold. As a major gold refining center, tariffs on gold would have represented a further blow for Switzerland after the country was hit with 39% U.S. tariffs. Such tariffs would have had major repercussions for flows into the U.S., which mainly come from Canada, Mexico and Switzerland, Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. "Avoiding the tariff serves U.S. interests by keeping these flows intact." The euro falls 0.2% to 0.9418 francs. The dollar drops 0.2% to 0.8107 francs. ([email protected])0659 GMT - Singapore faces challenges to growth momentum in 2H compared with a resilient 1H, says DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng in a note. External demand could weaken due to still-high U.S. tariffs globally and muted business sentiment. "The world, including Singapore, continues to face downside risks and uncertainties from punitive import levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, even if blanket semiconductor tariffs look likely to be avoided," he says. Business sentiment among Singapore companies is also cautious for 2H, reflecting concerns over the uncertain external landscape, he adds. ([email protected])0649 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut its cash rate to 2.85% by mid-2026, Capital Economics' Marcel Thieliant says in a commentary. The central bank endorsed market expectations of further monetary easing when it lowered the cash rate today, the head of Asia-Pacific says. The RBA's statement was little changed compared with the July meeting, Thieliant says. Also, RBA Gov. Bullock noted in the post-meeting press conference that the neutral rate is a less useful concept when Australia's economy is exposed to shocks as it is now, Thieliant adds.([email protected])0641 GMT - Sterling edges higher after data showed the U.K. unemployment rate held steady and wage growth remained strong in the three months to June. The unemployment was unchanged at 4.7%, as expected by economists in a WSJ survey. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.0% year-on-year, in line with forecasts and the previous period's growth. The data might sway some Bank of England policymakers to be more cautious about cutting interest rates, Premier Miton Investors analyst Neil Birrell says in a note. Sterling rises to $1.3435 after the data, from $1.3420 beforehand. The euro falls to 0.8639 pounds, from 0.8651 pounds previously. ([email protected])