Bitcoin Could Benefit From Fed Tailwind — Market Talk
0317 GMT - Bitcoin could benefit from improving sentiment after Fed Chair Powell recently gave his strongest hint that the central bank may cut rates again in October, says PrimeXBT research team in an analysis. The cryptomarket needs a Fed tailwind after recent volatility, it says. Prices fell amid U.S.-China trade worries and a cascading liquidation event. Trump threatened a 100% additional tariff on China last Friday, triggering a cryptocurrency selloff that wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions, it notes. Bitcoin is up 0.4% at $111,624, LSEG data shows.([email protected])0307 GMT - Bank of Japan policy-board member Naoki Tamura sees the possibility of the central bank achieving its inflation target earlier than expected, a comment that could add to expectations for a near-term interest-rate hike. "My view is that risks to prices are becoming more skewed to the upside," Tamura says in a speech. Some economists and policymakers have said that food inflation might be temporary, but Tamura calls for closer monitoring because price increases for processed food and dining out could occur with some time lag. "There is a strong possibility that food prices will continue to rise," he says. "Higher food prices have a significant impact on households' inflation expectations, and this could further push up prices." ([email protected])0250 GMT - China's economy is likely to see modest progress in coming quarters, according to BofA Securities economists in a research note. While more favorable bases and sector-specific policy measures helped ease pressures, China's economy is likely to muddle through with supply growth outpacing demand, the economists say. Going forward, BofA expects producer price deflation to moderate gradually in coming months on more favorable year-ago bases and the ongoing policy efforts to curb over-investment and excessive competition. Meanwhile, consumer prices are likely to remain in deflation in the coming quarter as overall consumer momentum stays lukewarm, they add. ([email protected])0236 GMT - The Singapore dollar strengthens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session, amid hopes for an extension of the U.S.-China trade truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed a tariff pause with China be extended in exchange for Beijing putting off its plan to tighten control of trade in rare earths, CBA's Joseph Capurso says in a research report. "An extension, rather than a grand bargain that settles all trade issues, is probably the most realistic second-best outcome compared to the alternative of escalation of retaliation," CBA's head of foreign exchange, international and geoeconomics adds. USD/SGD is 0.2% lower at 1.2933. ([email protected])0218 GMT - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports likely fell 2.0% on year in September, according to the median estimate of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That compares with August's 11.3% contraction. U.S. tariffs will likely continue to weigh on Singapore's trade outlook, says Moody's Analytics economist Denise Cheok in an email. "However, readings might be choppy in the coming months, based on August and September trade reports from major trade partners in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia," she says. The current AI boom could also support exports. However, this is confined to a specific subsector of the electronics segments and might not be enough to offset the overall fall in exports, Cheok says. The data is due Friday. ([email protected])0209 GMT - Short-dated JGBs fall in price in Tokyo's morning session. BOJ policy board member Naoki Tamura said earlier that the central bank should set its policy rate a little closer to the neutral level, which should be at least around 1%, and that it is important from a risk-management perspective for the BOJ to move closer to a neutral monetary-policy stance. The policy board member also said that risks to domestic prices are more skewed to the upside. The two-year JGB yield, which is perceived to be most sensitive to the BOJ's monetary-policy expectations, is 1.5 bps higher at 0.910%. ([email protected])0114 GMT - Growth in Singapore's household spending could slow next year, weighed by macroeconomic headwinds, says BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Total household spending is still likely to grow in real terms next year, buoyed by stable inflation and tight labor-market conditions, BMI analysts say in a note. However, this is likely to be weaker than in 2025 as Singapore's economy may be pressured by softer growth prospects in the U.S. and China. A strong Singapore dollar is also likely to drive residents to spend overseas, which could drag down domestic retail sales, BMI says. Meanwhile, BMI expects Singapore consumers' purchasing power to remain stagnant over 2026 due to slower economic growth, before gradually improving into 2029. ([email protected])0112 GMT - The yen strengthens against other G-10 and Asian currencies in early trade after reported remarks on Japan's currency from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday. According to media reports, Bessent said the yen will find its own level if the BOJ follows "proper monetary policy." USD/JPY falls 0.2% to 150.69, AUD/JPY drops 0.5% to 97.90, and EUR/JPY edges 0.1% lower to 175.75, FactSet data show. ([email protected])0110 GMT - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's policy choices could weigh on the country's long-run prospects, says Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, in a note. A series of protests in recent months have pushed Prabowo's administration in the direction of more populist and interventionist policymaking, Tuvey notes. If this continues for the rest of Prabowo's presidency, this will weigh on Indonesian assets as well as the country's long-term growth prospects. "Prabowo's desire for looser policy, alongside threats to central bank independence, risks structurally higher inflation," he says. At the same time, factors including weaker infrastructure spending will affect development of Indonesia's manufacturing sector.([email protected])0039 GMT - There's nothing like a shock unemployment figure to send a shudder through the corridors of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Unemployment was 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021, and well above the 4.3% rate expected. It comes as RBA communication has shifted to caution and hesitation about further cuts. That will likely need to be thrown out now as the reality of a rising jobless rate sinks in with the members of the RBA's monetary policy board. GDP growth is still weak and while inflation is simmering, the barriers to a further cut are tumbling. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0028 GMT - JGBs consolidate ahead of an expected speech by BOJ policy board member Naoki Tamura later today. Tamura is meeting with local leaders in Okinawa, Japan. He is one of two policy board members who dissented from the BOJ's decision to hold policy rates steady at last month's meeting. Both members signaled they believe the central bank is ready for another rate increase. Meanwhile, the BOJ is scheduled to make outright purchases today of four JGB sectors including sovereign securities with tenors of more than 25 years, which could lend support to the market. The 10-year JGB yield is unchanged at 1.650%. ([email protected])0015 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average rises 0.7% to 47997.81 in early trade, tracking overnight gains across most U.S. equity markets. Also, several reasons suggest a strong upside for Japanese stocks over a 6- to 12-month horizon, equity strategists at Citi Research say in a note. One is that all of the multiple conceivable political scenarios for Japan's next government will probably involve expansionary economic policies, the strategists say. Among the best performers on the benchmark index, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings rises 5.8%, Kioxia Holdings adds 5.4%, and Renesas Electronics is up 5.3%. USD/JPY is at 150.88, compared with 151.06 late Wednesday in New York. ([email protected])