Bitcoin bounces to seven-day highs, but can BTC break $95K on Thanksgiving?

Cointelegraph

Bitcoin rallied 13% from multimonth lows at $80,000, reclaiming the $90,000 mark on Wednesday. This move came as a surprise as BTC repeated its historical pre-holiday rally, increasing hopes of a continued upward move going into Thanksgiving weekend.Key takeaways:Bitcoin stages a pre-Thanksgiving rally and seeks to defy its historical average return of -0.8% during the holiday. Bitcoin must reclaim $100,000-$105,000 to avoid a potential breakdown below $80,000.  A rare Thanksgiving BTC price rally?Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the pair trading at $91,400 on Thursday, after it had climbed more than 5% on Wednesday.“Look, we just had a bullish Wednesday too,” said Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, referring to a previous analysis showing the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is always bullish, followed by a bearish Thursday. Related: Bearish Bitcoin mining data may be counter signal that encourages spot-driven BTC rally.Traders hoped Bitcoin would continue rising higher into the Holiday, bucking the trend of its previous performance on Thanksgiving Day.Bitcoin experienced gains on this day only in two out of the last 10 years, with large-scale declines particularly notable in 2018 and 2020. The average return is -0.8%, according to analyst Crypto Daan Trades.  Other analysts were focused on how high Bitcoin’s price could go during this year’s Thanksgiving, as it traded 4% below its highest ever close above $95,000, reached on Nov. 28, 2024. Bitcoin thanksgiving history 🦃 pic.twitter.com/K3bUKNJc8V“We have never yet had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving,” fellow analyst Terence Michael said on Wednesday, urging his followers to be “prepared regardless” of the current price action.Bitcoin is testing the $91,000-93,000 resistance area after the “first meaningful bounce in a long time,” said Jelle, noting that markets will remain closed on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day.“Expecting chop below the resistance until after the holiday at least.” As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s ability to push higher in the short term is restrained by uncertainty in interest rate policy, inflation expectations, and stress in BTC derivatives.Key Bitcoin price levels to watchBitcoin remains structurally “fragile” after losing its 50-week moving average and key cost-basis support, according to onchain data provider Glassnode.This structure mirrors the first quarter of 2022 post-previous all-time highs, when the “market weakened under fading demand,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain report, adding:“This current range echoes the same dynamic with the market drifting lower, constrained by limited inflows and fragile liquidity.”Glassnode noted that realized losses are currently elevated, with “STH loss ratios collapsing to 0.07x, signaling fading liquidity and demand,” adding:“If this ratio remains depressed, market conditions could begin to mirror the weakness of Q1 2022, raising the risk of a breakdown below the True Market Mean (~$81K).” On the upside, the major area to be reclaimed sits between $100,000 and $105,000, Bitcoin’s STH realized price and the 50-week moving average. These trend lines have historically served as vital support levels for the Bitcoin price and must be reclaimed to avoid further losses that could drive BTC below $80,000. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.