Betting Markets Suggest Tariffs Won't Be Temporary

By Vicky Ge HuangInvestors are not betting on a quick resolution to the global trade war.Betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi made waves last year for correctly predicting the election victory of President Donald Trump. Now, they are suggesting that tariffs may last long enough to tip the U.S. economy into a recession.In crypto-based predictions market Polymarket, traders assigned a 38% percent chance of Trump reducing the majority of tariffs before July and a whopping 62% probability that there will be a U.S. recession in 2025.This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).