USDA Weekly Report May Show Jump in Soybean Sales — Market Talk

1445 ET - The USDA's weekly export sales report may show a big jump in U.S. soybean export sales. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting exports for the week ended Aug. 6 to land anywhere from 700,000 metric tons to 2.6 million tons. If they hit the higher end of forecasts, then it'll be nearly 1 million more tons in soybean sales than reported last week. Sales to China are the main driver for the higher estimates, with flash sales being routinely announced in recent weeks. Corn and wheat sales are also forecast to have higher sales, analysts say. CBOT grain futures are higher following the WASDE report from earlier in the day, with corn up 4.5%, soybeans up 1.2%, and wheat up 3.6%. ([email protected])1435 ET - Consumer spending in Canada appears to have accelerated in 2Q, based on anonymized data from Royal Bank of Canada's debit- and credit-card holders. The downside, RBC economists say, is that households likely dipped into savings or accumulated more debt to finance purchases, due to elevated costs for gasoline. RBC's cardholder data indicate that core retail sales, excluding gas-station spending, rose 2.4% annualized in 2Q from 1Q. Cardholder spending on discretionary goods rose 3.7%, the bank says, following a weak 18-month period. "Underlying strength in spending suggests consumers broadly contributed to GDP growth in 2Q," RBC says. Preliminary data indicate a strong rebound in Canada growth in 2Q, after two straight quarters of slightly negative growth. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)1416 ET - Bitcoin is down 0.5% to $63,403, with prices seen rangebound without anything to juice buyer interest or seller activity. "Sellers are tiring and buyers are absent," says analysts with Glassnode in a note. The firm says the median realized price for bitcoin is sitting at $63k, while short-term holder cost basis is at $68.7k--with bitcoin rangebound between those levels. The July CPI report did little to move bitcoin, says Glassnode. "A weak response to good news is itself a warning," says the firm. Ethereum is up 0.4% to $1,888, XRP falls 0.7% to $1.01, and solana is essentially flat at $75.98. ([email protected])1410 ET - Quantinuum's deal with Oracle is a vote of confidence for the quantum computing company's potential path toward commercialization, and contributed to a projection of revenue upside in 2027, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note. Support from the U.S. government may serve as an additional tailwind, they write. But the central story is Quantinuum's path toward launching its next-generation quantum computers in 2027 and 2029, they write. "The quarter was encouraging, but it does not materially change the long term investment debate," the analysts write. Shares surge 24%. ([email protected])1347 ET - Treasury yields partially recover from morning declines triggered by lukewarm July inflation, while the dollar strengthens. A Treasury auction of 10-year notes shows signs of steady demand. Middle East tensions remain high, but oil prices ease amid an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles. Annual July CPI inflation meets forecast at 3.4%, driving odds of a September Fed hike down to 38% from 48% yesterday, according to CME. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%, reversing its morning losses. The 10-year yield rises to 4.668% from an intraday low of 4.652%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1151 ET - Super Micro Computer says new orders in its 4Q topped $60 billion, up from $39 billion as disclosed back in June. That means it got about $21 billion additional orders booked in the final weeks of the quarter, Raymond James analysts say in a research note. That acceleration is a stronger indicator of the company's forthcoming performance than the 4Q revenue miss, they say. It is also a sign that customers are largely unconcerned with the overhang from the Justice Department's case against the company in connection with export controls, the analysts say. Shares rise 14% to $35.96. ([email protected])1112 ET - Chili's is increasing its lead in casual dining, Brinker International CEO Kevin Hochman says on a call with analysts Wednesday. He credits the continued progress to the chain's ongoing turnaround efforts, which focus on long-term sustainable growth, improvements to food, service and atmosphere, and position the brand to be more relevant. "These experience improvements, coupled with our everyday value leadership--represented by a per-person average spend that is $3 to $4 below competition--are supporting a powerful flywheel of traffic and sales growth, margin expansion, and then reinvestment into our business," Hochman says. "We still have room to improve, but our progress gives us confidence that we will sustain traffic gains and repeat business." Shares are up 5.3%. ([email protected])1111 ET - Bitcoin could rise further after the July U.S. inflation data reduced market pricing for a September interest rate rise by the Fed, 21shares strategist Matt Mena says in a note. The data showed inflation eased to 3.4% last month, as expected. Money markets price a 40% chance of a 25 basis points rate rise in September, compared to 48% before the data. This could be the relief bitcoin needs to rise sustainably above $64,000 and push towards the $66,000 resistance level, Mena says. Historically, bitcoin has returned an average rise of 3.7% following an in-line inflation print over the past three years, he says. Bitcoin is down 0.4% to $63,448. ([email protected])1059 ET - The July CPI report is unlikely to determine what FOMC policy makers may do when they meet next month, according to a note from Santander's Stephen Stanley. The unrounded core CPI posted a 0.215% rise, which translates to a 2.6% annualized pace, he points out in a note. "Given what we know now, I continue to expect the FOMC to hike in September (and again in December)," he says.([email protected])1014 ET - Sterling rises to a four-week high against the dollar after U.S. inflation data on Wednesday prompted markets to trim expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. Annual U.S. inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, as expected. Money markets price a 39% chance of a 25 basis-point U.S. rate rise in September, compared to 48% before the data, according to LSEG. Sterling rises to a high of $1.3541 after the data, from $1.3518 beforehand, LSEG data show. ([email protected])1000 ET - Government bonds from peripheral countries in the eurozone, such as Italy and Spain, look attractive as they are high-quality assets with potential to provide carry returns, Pimco's Konstantin Veit and Nicola Mai say in a note. Spain and Italy's debt ratios have improved in recent years, making their bonds attractive, the portfolio managers say. "We maintain our positive outlook on sovereign bonds from peripheral countries, particularly with regard to liquid markets such as Italy and Spain." ([email protected])0938 ET - The odds of an interest rate hike coming in September are shrinking, with the CME's FedWatch now assessing at 64% chance of rates staying the same after the Federal Reserve's meeting next month. This is expected to be beneficial for assets like bitcoin, says Stephen Coltman of 21shares. "Today's number will only reinforce that trend of a weaker dollar, a steeper yield curve, and a rally in assets such as gold and bitcoin," says Coltman in a note. Bitcoin is up 0.5% following the July CPI report, which showed inflation growing 3.4% year-over-year, matching the WSJ consensus. Ethereum is up 1.4%, solana rises 0.6%, and Hyperliquid climbs 3.2%. ([email protected])