U.S. Natural Gas Futures Settle Lower — Market Talk

1521 ET - U.S. natural gas futures remain stuck in a tight range as solid weather-driven demand is met with ample supply. The domestic balance "has not yet tightened enough to force a clear breakout," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Warmer weather forecasts keep power-sector use as the main demand driver, while renewed Middle East premium keeps LNG export demand in focus, the firm adds, but production remains firm and storage is "still acting as the main cushion against a more aggressive rally." Nymex natural gas settles down 1.6% at $3.212/mmBtu. ([email protected])1517 ET - Despite Kura Sushi's lower than anticipated 3Q sales, analysts at Davidson raised their FY27 bottom-line estimates slightly, saying profit growth will offset the sales contraction over time. Kura's same-store sales declined 0.4% as fewer customers came to the sushi chain and high gas prices in California affected demand. But its adjusted restaurant-level margin rose more than expected due to labor efficiencies. To start its 4Q, the sushi chain is seeing a slight uptick to same-store sales, a trend that coincides with falling gas prices, although traffic is still dampened in part by consumers paying more attention to the World Cup.([email protected])1512 ET - Oil futures pull further away from pre-war levels as strikes resume between the U.S. and Iran and the U.S. cancels its sanctions waiver to allow for the sale of Iranian oil following Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. "This is bullish for the near term," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. "With Iranian barrels now facing renewed restrictions, supply risks are back on the table, supporting prices even as global markets digest other factors." WTI settles up 4.4% at $73.52 a barrel after edging above $76, and Brent gains 5.2% to $78.02 after briefly returning to $80 a barrel. ([email protected])1455 ET - The AI build-out creates an uncertain scenario for officials as they balance the risks between waiting for a larger productivity payoff and addressing any inflation pressures it may create in the short-term. Mentions of AI increased in June's Fed minutes. "Many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity," the minutes said. ([email protected])1451 ET - CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index has risen in recent days, pushing out of the "extreme fear" zone. The index currently reads at 26 out-of 100, which is down from 28 yesterday but well above the "extreme fear" ratings below 20 seen at this time a week ago. Selling in bitcoin last week may have been overdone, says analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. "Prices reached short-term undervaluation… but conditions stay extremely bearish," says the firm. Bitcoin is down 2.5% to $62,057, ethereum down 2.9% to $1,732, XRP down 3% to $1.08, and solana down 5.2% to $76.87. ([email protected])1447 ET - The EIA's report of a 3 million barrel build in crude oil stocks for last week would have been bearish but for the renewal of conflict in the Middle East that pushed prices up, Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. "All moving pieces lined up on the bearish side of the ledger," he writes, noting crude production near an all-time high, a rise in imports, a drop in exports, and refineries easing off after running hard since early spring. "If Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral had not sparked a hardliner outburst in Iran over the past couple days, ultimately leading to attacks on shipping in the strategic chokepoint, then today's report would have been one more bearish data point in what was shaping up to be an oversupplied market." ([email protected])1444 ET - The Fed June meeting minutes showed that all participants supported maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate (which is 3.5-3.75%). Regarding the labor market, participants considered conditions to appear stable. At the time, the Fed had on hand the May jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy adding 172,000 jobs in May in a broader range of sectors. In the minutes 'several' participants said they did not see the policy stance as restrictive, while a few other participants commented that they saw the current policy stance as slightly restrictive. ([email protected])1440 ET - Domino's Pizza faces a tough setup in its 2Q, largely as competitors step up promotions and macro pressures affect sales, UBS analysts said in a research note. The firm expects the pizza chain to post a 1.5% decline in U.S. same-store sales when it reports earnings later this month. But they do see upside from there due to several company initiatives, including strong everyday value, promotions of its own and some new menu options such as new sauces, potentially more chicken offerings and additional crust options that build off its Parmesan Stuffed Crust. UBS also cites growth from DoorDash, benefits from its new app and additional marketing providing a boost.([email protected])1436 ET - Jefferies says Lululemon Athletica is making progress restoring the merchandise assortment that helped build its brand, but warns investors not to mistake that for a near-term turnaround. The brokerage said recent store checks found cleaner merchandising and a return to more neutral colors, though rebuilding consumer trust, stabilizing store traffic and improving productivity are likely to take several quarters. Jefferies maintained its Hold rating and $115 price target, noting purchase consideration and foot traffic remain under pressure while sales productivity and margins continue to deteriorate. The firm expects any broader strategic reset under incoming Chief Executive Heidi O'Neill to become more of a 2027 story than a catalyst for near-term earnings. ([email protected])1423 ET - Oil futures are higher in a volatile session as the renewal of strikes between the U.S. and Iran threaten to again choke off Middle East supply, prompting short-covering. "Traders were caught offside, particularly in Brent," says Tracy Shuchart of NinjaTrader Group. "All the length had come out of that contract, most of it had come out of WTI, so the market was getting pretty short." An effort by President Trump to de-escalate later on wouldn't be surprising, she says. With stockpiles already depleted, the world no longer has the cushion it had at the start of the conflict and most countries want to replenish their strategic reserves. "We don't have that buffer any more even in the U.S.," Shuchart adds. WTI is up 4.5% at $73.62 a barrel and Brent is up 5.4% at $78.16. ([email protected])1419 ET - In the minutes of June's Fed meeting, officials showed a mixed outlook for monetary policy amid economic uncertainty. In the minutes, "many" participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate (in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%) would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. "Many" other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year.([email protected])1411 ET - Consumers have shown they are willing to pay higher prices for beef, even as price increases across numerous food and drink categories are tightening household budgets and changing how consumers shop, according to CoBank. The quarterly report from CoBank's Knowledge Exchange says inflationary pressures and shifting consumer buying patterns are reshaping strategies for retailers, manufacturers and suppliers. Billy Roberts, food and beverage economist with CoBank, says consumers are responding to food price increases "by choosing lower cost options like private label brands, shopping at discount retailers or simply buying less." But consumers still seem a willing to pay higher prices for beef despite limited supply, while lower-cost pork and chicken alternatives have not fully absorbed the available production, CoBank says. CoBank is a cooperative bank serving industries across rural America. ([email protected])