U.S. Bitcoin and Ether Funds See Large Inflows — Market Talk

1017 ET - U.S. Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded products saw net sales of $608 million and $184 million, respectively, on Thursday, J.P. Morgan analysts estimate, as crypto investors jump on positive signals from U.S. regulators and a weaker dollar. These flows were an acceleration from already-strong flows on Wednesday, they write. Flows were concentrated in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, which saw inflows of $504 million, they say. Funds managed by Fidelity and Bitwise also saw significant inflows. Trading volumes totaled $5.405 billion Thursday, well ahead of the running daily average of $3.22 billion, they say. Bitcoin rises 5.4% to $76,965.03, while Ether--the token of blockchain network Ethereum--adds 2.3% to trade at $2,379.82. ([email protected])1012 ET - Statistics Canada's early estimate on July retail sales — a 0.8% month-over-month drop — indicates that consumer strength has waned with gas prices on the upswing, says Thomas Ryan, economist at Capital Economics. Gas prices rose in July following the resumption of U.S. military attacks on Iran. That increase "has already taken the steam out of spending," Ryan says. He adds consumer spending is likely to continue slowing, and should calm any worries among Bank of Canada policymakers about any overheating of the Canadian economy. ([email protected]; @paulviera)0950 ET - U.K. public-finances data continues the recent run of bad news on the fiscal front and highlights the limited scope for extra public borrowing, Capital Economics' Ashley Webb says in a note. The 1.8 billion pounds of public borrowing for July was worse than consensus and puts the borrowing overshoot to official forecasts in the fiscal year so far at 2.3 billion pounds. This "will probably get bigger as real GDP growth weakens and the government announces more cost-of-living support in the budget later this year," Webb says. With market interest rates having already reduced the government's headroom by about 7 billion pounds since March, there will be little scope to raise borrowing, he says. ([email protected])0942 ET - Bitcoin ETFs have had a net inflow exceeding over $1 billion in the past two days, according to data from CoinGlass. With a net inflow of $606.3 million on Thursday, it's now $1.61 billion in net inflows reported over the past four days. This week has seen a resurgent appetite in cryptocurrencies, thanks to more attention coming from the Trump Administration and actions from the Treasury Department resurrecting the "dollar debasement" trade. It's a change from the trading that has dominated the crypto space all summer. "The current Bitcoin bear market is getting a little long in the tooth," says Zach Pandl of Grayscale Research in a note. Bitcoin spiked over $79,000 overnight, and was recently up 5.8% to $76,865. ([email protected])0939 ET - Bitcoin's rally is being fueled by rapid inflows and increased speculation, XS.com's Simon-Peter Massabni says. Spot bitcoin funds are on track for their strongest week of inflows since last October, adding over $1.6 billion, the analyst writes, quoting cryptocurrency tracker SoSo Value data. At the same time, open positions in bitcoin futures reached $54 billion, up by $10 billion from lows in late June according to CoinGlass, Massabni says. The inflows coincided with short-position liquidations, totaling over $1.6 billion between Thursday and Friday, the analyst says. Bitcoin rises 5.1% to $76,692.83. ([email protected])0926 ET - The prospect of lower interest rates boosts bitcoin, according to 21Rates. The crypto information firm says in a note that falling borrowing costs also cheapen bitcoin-backed loans. "Many bitcoin lending platforms price their floating-rate products against Fed funds or SOFR benchmarks," 21Rates says. "A sustained compression of long-end yields, if it continues, would mechanically reduce the rates borrowers pay on platforms like Arch and Coinbase Credit over time." Long-dated Treasury yields decline from multiyear highs as the government plans to increase its long-term bond buybacks. Bitcoin rises 6%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)0924 ET - Business sentiment in the eurozone has stabilized at moderate growth, with services flat in August but manufacturing rising to its highest in four years, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says in a note. The composite flash PMI increased marginally to 52.1 from 52.0 in July, above consensus. "Apparently, the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the resulting rise in energy prices are currently weighing significantly less on businesses in the eurozone than they did in the spring," Stamer says. The PMI remains in a range where the economy has historically experienced moderate growth. The manufacturing pickup was likely due to public investment in Germany, where manufacturing sentiment rose to a multiyear high, he says. ([email protected])0922 ET - Canada retail sales rose by a solid 0.6% in June. But the significant takeway from Statistics Canada's June retail report is that momentum through 2Q appears to have stalled in July, says Andrew Grantham, economist at CIBC Capital Markets. The data agency's early estimate for July indicates a 0.8% month-over-month drop on a nominal basis. Grantham says the result for July will likely be weaker on a volume, or price-adjusted, basis, given that gasoline prices rose in the month alongside a resumption of U.S. attacks targeting Iran. For 2Q, Statistics Canada reports retail-sales volume rose by 0.4% nonannualized. ([email protected], @paulviera)0922 ET - U.K. macro data published Friday hints at resilience in consumer demand to stronger headwinds in the third quarter of the year, Investec's Sandra Horsfield says in a note. Perhaps most significant is there was only a moderate 0.5% drop in retail sales after two months of firm gains, she says. Consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in August, with the gauge of propensity to make major purchases reaching its highest since December 2021. All subcomponents of the confidence index are now higher than prior to the outbreak of the Iran war, despite little visibility on a resolution, Horsfield says. But with consumers still facing rising energy prices, third-quarter GDP growth will likely prove weaker than in the first half, she says. ([email protected])0914 ET - Bitcoin's rise is partly due to massive accumulation by so-called mega-whales, XS.com's Simon-Peter Massabni says. The major investors, who each hold more than 10,000 bitcoin, added more than 30,000 bitcoin Thursday, according to figures from BGeometrics, Massabni says. "Bitcoin's continued upward trend comes alongside liquidity flowing at an accelerated pace into the cryptocurrency market through various channels," the analyst adds. There has also been a boost from optimism about regulatory factors in the U.S., XS.com says. A rapid return of speculative liquidity to cryptocurrency futures is also supporting bitcoin. Bitcoin is up 5.7% at $77,148.10, according to LSEG data. ([email protected])0912 ET - Bitcoin surges to a three-month high of $79,455 and could be well on the road to further gains, deVere Group CEO Nigel Green says in a note. "The asset had not traded above $70,000 since late May, and it's now cleared that level with real conviction behind it rather than a thin, low-volume bounce," he says. "Investors who spent this year waiting for a cleaner entry point could be watching one unfold in front of them right now." Analysts cite a jump in institutional spot demand and U.S. regulatory momentum as President Trump urges passage of the Clarity Act. "If [the Clarity Act] clears Congress, that removes years of regulatory uncertainty in one move," Green says. ([email protected])0910 ET - Bitcoin finding its highest levels since May is reshaping how investors are evaluating overall markets. "This year's quiet patch in crypto never reflected a loss of belief in the asset class," says Nigel Green of deVere Group in a note. "It reflected liquidity being pulled elsewhere, into an overheated AI and semiconductor trade." The timing of this while bitcoin has been stuck in rangebound trade all summer is creating the explosive movement, Green adds. "Every one of those pressures is now easing at the same time, and Bitcoin is repricing accordingly." Bitcoin is up 6.2% to $77,194, according to LSEG data. Ethereum rises 2.9% to $2,385, XRP is up 10.8% to $1.37, and solana is up 3.7% to $90.76. ([email protected])