Treasury Yields Slip From Lofty Levels Ahead of Fed Minutes — Market Talk

1547 ET - The global bonds selloff takes a break and Treasury yields edge lower ahead of Fed minutes. The central bank is expected to hold rates this month, after raising them in September for the first time in three years. Inflation data coming next week could still change the outlook. An auction of three-year notes clears at the highest yield since 2006, as investors demand loftier returns to finance the government. The Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow. The 10-year yield drops 0.040 percentage point to 5.270% and the two-year falls 0.042 points to 4.789%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1437 ET - U.S. farmers turned more pessimistic in September, thanks to higher input costs pressuring farmer's bottom lines. In the latest Ag Economy Barometer produced by Purdue University and the CME Group, farmer sentiment in September fell from 135 to 123. More farmers surveyed in September expect their finances to be 'worse off' a year from now than 'better', although many farmers do see some bright spots on the horizon. "While higher costs and financial pressures are clearly shaping producers' views of current conditions, strong expectations for farmland values point to a more positive outlook for some aspects of the agricultural economy," says Michael Langemeier of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. ([email protected])1225 ET - The amount of stocks trading on blockchains went from $639 million in September 2025 to $3.17 billion in September 2026--a near 400% increase year-over-year, says RedStone in a report. While the popularity of tokenized stocks is growing at an exponential rate, their utility remains fairly limited. The firm says that most are traded in the form of perpetual futures on exchanges like Binance, and that the three-largest issuers of tokenized stocks don't allow holders any direct share ownership. Which is why tokens purporting to represent OpenAI stock or Anthropic shares have been publicly disavowed by both companies, which have announced IPOs but haven't started any roadshows. Bitcoin posted a strong September, and is up 0.6% to $86,260 in current trade. ([email protected])1211 ET - Snap elections in Spain in November aren't expected to have a significant impact on Spanish government bonds, MFS Investment Management's Peter Goves says in a note. "Spanish fundamentals are strong and Spanish politics is rarely a spread driver," the head of developed market debt sovereign research says. Furthermore, it appears that the Partido Popular (PP) could potentially form a workable majority with VOX--which would give Spain a majority government for the first time in several years, Goves says. "This would reduce uncertainty around passing a budget for example," he says. In addition, the PP is likely to be pro-business and pro-EU, which would also support spreads, he says. The 10-year Spanish bond yield falls 6.3 basis points to 4.081% as eurozone bond yields decline. ([email protected])1136 ET - Economic activity in Canada expanded for a sixth straight month in September, the latest Ivey purchasing managers index report suggests. The seasonally adjusted PMI registered 58.2, a sixth consecutive month above the 12-month moving average of 55 but down from 64.3 in August. Ivey data indicates an increase in purchases contributed to a pike in inventories, and there also was a jump in prices as the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade dispute contributed to supply chain disruptions in North America, professor P. Fraser Johnson says. The prices index rose to 80.4, the highest since April 2022. The employment index came in at 56.5 from 55 in August, while the inventories index registered a decline to 58.3 from August's 61.4 but remained above the 52.9 12-month moving average. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1040 ET - The rebound in Canada's trade surplus in August provides some upside risk to Statistics Canada's advance estimate for a 0.2% growth in monthly GDP, though the surplus is likely to narrow from here as the renewed trade war bites, Capital Economics' Bradley Saunders says. The economist says the sharply wider surplus owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of the Trump administration's Section 338 tariffs. Exports rose 2.5% on-month, completely reversing July's decline, but Saunders says the impact of tariffs should partially reverse in September. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1038 ET - The U.S. widening trade deficit suggests that 3Q economic growth will be slower than expected, Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis writes. The deficit reaches a 17-month high of $105.6 billion in August, after a 4.3% jump in imports outpaced the 1.4% increase in exports. "Overall, the data suggests net trade will be a larger drag to [3Q] GDP than we previously thought," Curtis says. She now expects growth closer to an annualized 2.5%, rather than the current estimate of 4%. "That said, the rise in imports may be reflected by even higher inventory building than we currently assume, meaning the inventory data next week could still provide some payback to our estimate," she says. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1035 ET - Employees in New York City's securities industry are making a lot of money. The average annual salary, including bonuses, across the industry rose 11% to $561,770 in 2025, according to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. That figure is more than five times the average salary in the rest of New York City's private sector, he adds. The 2025 bonus pool across the securities industry totaled $49.2 billion, equal to an average bonus of $246,900 per employee, up 6% from the previous year. ([email protected])1034 ET - Bitcoin and ether are likely to rise if U.S. interest-rate expectations are repriced lower and yield differentials move against the dollar, LMAX Group's Joel Kruger says in a note. Recent data showing softer PCE inflation and subdued hourly earnings growth point to an easing in underlying price pressures, he says. However, services inflation remains elevated and Middle East energy supplies are fragile. "We therefore continue to watch whether improving inflation signals translate into a lasting turn in yields and the [dollar]." A sustained dollar reversal, accompanied by easing yields and healthy risk appetite could support bitcoin and ether, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.6% to $86,321, LSEG data show. Ether increases 0.2% to $2,718. ([email protected])1029 ET - Employment in New York City's securities industry rose 3.5%, to 207,400 jobs, in 2025--the highest level since data tracking began in 2000, according to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. Preliminary data for 2026 shows the industry on pace to add an additional 5,300 jobs in New York City this year, the report says. While New York added the most securities industry jobs during this period, some states such as Texas and Utah experienced faster rates of growth from smaller employment bases, according to the report. ([email protected])1027 ET - The amount of stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional assets like the U.S. dollar --traded in September rose nearly 25% from the prior month, totaling $1.01 trillion, says CoinDesk in a note. It's the first time since March that stablecoin volumes have been over the trillion mark, coinciding with big jumps in bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies seen in September. "The gap between modest supply growth and a sharp rise in turnover points to higher velocity rather than fresh capital alone," says CoinDesk. Bitcoin is up 0.6% to $86,343, while ethereum rises 0.2% to $2,718, XRP climbs 0.6% to $1.51, and solana is up 0.3% to $120.97. ([email protected])1025 ET - Demand for French debt is still healthy, demonstrated by the fact that French bond auctions remain well covered, says Ken Egan at KBRA in a note. The market remains willing to absorb supply, he says. Still, investors are increasingly looking for at a price that reflects broader political and policy uncertainty. "With fiscal uncertainty elevated, political rhetoric becoming more challenging, and policy scenarios that would normally sit at the margins now being discussed more openly, the market has more room to demand a higher yield," Egan says. ([email protected])