Solana Outpaces Bitcoin In Crypto Surge To 6-Month High — Analysts Say Jackson Hole Could Decide BTC’s $80K Breakout

Solana (SOL) led gains among the top cryptocurrencies on Thursday, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and climbing to a six-month high, while analysts reportedly are eyeing the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for the next potential catalyst. rallied 7.5% in the last 24 hours, to over $103, and was among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing. Meanwhile,  gained 1.3% in the last 24 hours, trading at around $79,600 and struggling to .However, Bitcoin has outperformed Solana over the past year, dropping around 30% in the last 12 months, while SOL has dropped 50%.Crypto Rally Lifts Solana Past $100Solana last traded sustainably above $100 in February before sliding to between $60 and $70 range earlier in the year. It has since climbed about 35% over the past week, aided by network activity that hit a record 1.32 billion transactions between August 17 and 23 and new on-chain governance proposals aimed at tightening SOL's supply through faster disinflation and higher fee burns.Meanwhile, Bitcoin has staged its strongest weekly rally since March 2023, climbing 23.6% last week and breaking through $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, according to a Morningstar report. However, the rally wasn’t driven by the cryptocurrency market, but broader macroeconomic factors, James Butterfill, Head of Research at Coinshares, reportedly said.What's Behind The Crypto Rally?According to Morningstar’s report, analysts said the immediate catalyst was the U.S. Treasury's decision to at least double its buybacks of longer-maturity government bonds, from $2 billion to $4 billion a month, aimed at bringing down long-term yields that had surged to levels last seen in 2007.André Dragosch, Head of Research Europe at Bitwise, called it the "major macro catalyst" in comments cited by Morningstar, pointing to a weaker dollar and a more accommodative fiscal stance.Blue Macellari, T. Rowe Price's head of digital assets, told Morningstar that the more significant driver is the revival of the "debasement trade," where investors rotate out of cash and government bonds into scarce assets.Bitcoin Rally Gets A Boost From Short SqueezeAnalysts credited leverage with amplifying the move once it started. Dragosch told Morningstar that Bitcoin entered the rally after a prolonged low-volatility stretch, with his "seller-exhaustion indicator" at its lowest level since November 2018. Once prices moved higher, a record amount of leveraged short positions were forced to close last week, according to Dragosch, adding a short-squeeze effect on top of the macro-driven buying.Morningstar's report also points to signs of genuine, non-leveraged demand returning. "Whales have stopped selling and have started accumulating again," Butterfill said, though he noted it isn't yet at levels suggesting an immediate, sustained breakout.Jackson Hole Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next MoveThe report noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed several important technical levels. These include a 200-day moving average, as well as the average price active investors paid for coins traded on the secondary market, according to Dragosch.However, the level of $80,000 remains the key test. CoinShares’ Butterfill expects Bitcoin to remain within its current range unless the Federal Reserve provides clearer confirmation that the risk of further rate rises has disappeared, which “could provide the catalyst for a stable bitcoin breakout above the $80,000 threshold.”The report noted that Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium is where markets will be looking for signals from Fed policymakers that validate the expectations of looser monetary policy now embedded in asset prices.