Polymarket Odds Swing on August 15 Israel-Iran Ceasefire Outcome

Polymarket odds on the submarket for whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will still hold on August 15 swung sharply, with the “Yes” option rising to 58% from 40.5% one hour earlier. According to ChainCatcher, the move reflected a 17.5 percentage point increase and came amid warning of possible impact from breaking news.