Polymarket 'Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds' Bet Drops to 65% on August 9

A Polymarket submarket tied to the question of whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold on August 9 saw its "Yes" probability fall sharply to 65% from 84.5% one hour earlier, a 19.5 percentage point drop. According to ChainCatcher, the sudden move reflects the impact of recent breaking news on the prediction market.