Oil Hovers Close to $95 as Middle East Conflict Further Pressures Bonds

By Joe StonorOil hovered around $95 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, putting further pressure on bond yields as a rout in sovereign debt extended in early European trade.Brent crude extended its gains following the latest round of fighting in the Middle East before President Trump said in a Truth Social post that he "couldn't care less" if Tehran signs an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.U.S. Treasury yields hit fresh highs following the escalation. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes edged 0.7 basis point higher to 4.805%, while 30-year yields nudged up 0.2 basis point to 5.279%.Investors are increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike at the central bank's meeting this month, placing further upward pressure on yields. The market is currently pricing in a 69% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, according to LSEG.Eurozone bonds also continued to sell off, with 10-year German Bund yields reaching their highest since 2011 while yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds climbed to their highest level since 2007.The extended rout coincided with the meeting of finance ministers at the G-20 summit in North Carolina, which concluded Tuesday. The rise in oil came even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the summit that oil from the Gulf would bypass the Strait of Hormuz in two years.Japanese government bonds remain in focus ahead of a widely expected rate hike later this month, while Japan's financial leaders pledged to keep a close eye on the yen.In equity markets, U.S. stock futures were mixed, with Nasdaq futures falling 0.2%, putting the index on pace for a fourth-straight down day. Tuesday was the lowest volume trading day for the index of 2026. Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat.Dell Technologies stock jumped around 10% in after-hours trading after the group lifted its revenue targets for the fiscal year by $25 billion after market close Tuesday.Equities in Asia and Europe largely fell, with Korea's Kospi sliding 4% as chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost 4% and 4.6%, respectively. Premarket moves in U.S. chip stocks were muted, however, while artificial-intelligence-related hardware stocks strengthened in European trade.The dollar edged higher as gold fell 0.5% to $4,372.40 a troy ounce--its lowest level in three weeks--with rate-hike bets continuing to reduce the appeal of nonyielding gold. Bitcoin retraced some recent losses to climb 0.1% to $77,491.83.For the day ahead, investors are watching for the August ADP report for the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. Broadcom, Snowflake and Hewlett Packard report earnings after the bell.Write to Joe Stonor at [email protected]