Nikkei Rises 1.8%, Led by Chip-Related Stocks — Market Talk

2033 ET - Japanese stocks are higher on their first day of trading this week. Chip-related stocks are leading gains following public holidays in Japan from Monday through Wednesday. Ibiden is up 14%, SoftBank Group is up 7.0%, and Kioxia Holdings is 3.7% higher. The dollar is at 158.21 yen, compared with Y158.31 as of Wednesday 5 p.m. Eastern time. Investors are focusing on the U.S.-China summit meeting, crude oil prices and bond yields. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.8% at 66189.99. ([email protected]; @kosakunarioka)2007 ET - Bitcoin edges up but stays below recent highs. A pattern of rallies and pullbacks has many wondering if the so-called crypto winter is giving way. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin cleared an important Fibonacci resistance this week, suggesting that it's now in a medium-term bullish consolidation zone, supporting further recovery, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote. Glassnode notes positive technical indicators too: Bitcoin is above the True Market Mean and the long-term holder block that held it back for most of 2026. Profit-taking is light, ETF buying is picking up, and altcoins are rising without much new leverage. The next test is $95,000-$97,000. Holding above $84,000 keeps that path open, while a move below that and then below $77,000 would put the recovery in doubt. Bitcoin is up 0.2% at $84,423. ([email protected])1727 ET - White House adviser Kevin Hassett is calling the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike into question and criticizing its voting record around big elections. Core inflation is a better indicator of future inflation, and the latest reading came in at around a steady 2%, the National Economic Council Director says at a Georgetown University event. "If core is 2%, then why are we hiking?" Hassett says. He says his friend, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, is managing an "unusually partisan" Fed that, around major elections, has historically hiked rates when it would be politically disadvantageous for Trump and cut rates when it would benefit his opponents. "I think there's still some work to do to restore Fed independence," Hassett says. ([email protected])1601 ET - A massive U.S. government debt sends Treasury yields to new highs amid mounting concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and the Middle East conflict. An auction of $70 billion in five-year notes clears a yield of 5.033%, the highest in two decades, amid indications of soft demand. Futures markets price in 67% odds of a hike in October, up from 55% Tuesday, according to CME. Brent crude rallies 4% to $103 a barrel. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.5% to 96.75, its highest level since July. The 10-year yield rises 0.147 percentage point to 5.113, the highest since 2007. The two-year adds 0.118 points to 4.893%, highest since May 2024. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1539 ET - Natural gas futures post back-to-back gains with the October contract settling above $3 per million British thermal units after numerous failed attempts recently. With the market in a shoulder month, moves to $3 tend to prompt a pullback, says long-time natural gas trader John Woods. "Every time you get up there you take some profit because you don't want to be long, even at $2.95 and above because you have no push after that," he says. "This pattern has been going on for a good month." Nymex gas settles up 2% at $3.023/mmBtu, its highest close since July 8. ([email protected])1524 ET - Revisions to Canada's population numbers push annual growth to 0.5% as of 2Q and erase what had looked to be year-over-year declines since early 2026. Royal Bank economist Rachel Battaglia says the changes significantly impact how some economic data looks in hindsight. For example, per-capita GDP growth looks less firm over the last year with the upward population revisions. The changes may also impact the outlook for measures of total GDP growth and employment growth, Battaglia adds. The economist says the broader economic narrative doesn't change materially, yet more modest population declines in recent quarters could mean more aggressive slowdowns in future. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1521 ET - Canadian demographics are again clouding the economic picture for the country, National Bank's Daren King and Matthieu Arseneau say. Rapid changes to immigration policies in recent years haven't only made the future trajectory of the population much more volatile, but fresh revisions to population numbers show that even recent history may be subject to change, the economists say. Data shows the population expanded by 189,425 people or 0.5% on-year in 2Q, the lowest number since World War II and the smallest percentage gain since WWI. Revisions now erase what had looked to be a decline in population in the preceding quarters. And since population is the implicit denominator in many economic analyses, economists will need to assess implications including whether recent real GDP growth is as robust in the context of a population actually growing. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1509 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME settled up 1.2% to $2.22175 a pound, resuming an upward trend seen in cattle futures in the past month. Cattle has been gradually pushing higher after finding a low around $2.10 a pound in early September. That comes even though the U.S.-Mexico border has been gradually reopening after being closed in an effort to control the spread of New World screwworm. Cattle is also trending higher ahead of Friday's Cold Storage report from the USDA. Lean hog futures settle the day down 0.9% to 70.375 cents a pound. ([email protected])1502 ET - PG&E is dealing with a growing risk from inaction on wildfire liability reform, UBS analysts say, downgrading the stock to neutral from buy. While the analysts expect work on wildfire legislation to continue, there hasn't been action. California Governor Gavin Newsom has spoken about a potential special session on AI, but hasn't mentioned something similar for wildfire reform, the analysts say. They see the delay in a wildfire reform resolution as a negative for PG&E's performance. UBS cuts its price target on the stock to $14 from $19, and lowers its estimate for 2028 earnings per share to $1.90 from $1.95. ([email protected])1457 ET - The U.S./China summit is really about "buying time," according to Oxford Economics. The economists say "China wants to preserve export access while reducing external technology dependence. The U.S. wants to limit near-term supply-chain disruption and build manufacturing capacity at home." They say both sides need time to build credible substitutes. As for actual deliverables from the summit, they expect limited tariff relief, potentially stronger purchase commitments in agriculture and aircraft, and agreements or commitments to cooperate on a narrow set of issues, including AI safety and Iran. That would leave thornier issues around tech rivalry and Taiwan unresolved, Oxford says. ([email protected])1423 ET - The Bank of Mexico is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% in a third consecutive hold Thursday, with core inflation showing signs of moderation. "We think Banxico will look through a pre-emptive Fed hiking cycle, as diverging domestic demand conditions should give the board room to allow the policy-rate differential to narrow below historical lows," analysts at BBVA say in a note. "Stronger 2Q activity has further weakened the case for additional easing, while persistent economic slack and gradually moderating core services inflation provide little reason to tighten," they add. ([email protected])1351 ET - Bitcoin ETFs have posted a net inflow of more than $2.3 billion over four consecutive days, with more than $1.7 billion of that reported in the past two days, according to data from Coinglass. Analysts now say the next psychological price level for bitcoin is at $90,000. "We expect the $80,500 or so region to provide the first area of support and then for the $85,000 to 86,500 region to continue acting as resistance until the next range breakout is catalysed," says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. Bitcoin is trading down 2.7% to $83,883. ([email protected])