Higher UAE Fuel Prices Set to Push Dubai Inflation Higher — Market Talk

1118 ET - Higher fuel prices are set to add renewed upward pressure to Dubai inflation in September, Emirates NBD Research says. UAE fuel prices rose for a second consecutive month, with Super 98 gasoline increasing 5.6% on month to AED3.80 a liter and diesel jumping 13%. The increases track higher global oil prices and should push Dubai inflation higher after it moderated in July, the Dubai-based bank's senior economist Daniel Richards says. The rise comes as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have rebuilt the geopolitical risk premium in crude markets. ([email protected])1117 ET - Credit spreads on euro investment-grade bonds are expected to stay relatively steady in the near term due to strong fund inflows and healthy corporate earnings, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Euro credit spreads have remained resilient despite global markets volatility due to geopolitical concerns and tech-related worries, Valencia says. Spreads are likely to stay within the current levels unless a major trigger occurs. This could include "a more aggressive corporate releveraging that finally sees some weakening in corporates' ability to service debt," he says. ([email protected])1112 ET - High net-worth borrowers using cryptocurrency as collateral for their loans are shifting away from bitcoin reliance, incorporating a wider mix that includes privacy-coin upstart Zcash. According to data from CoinRabbit compiled by CryptoQuant, bitcoin represents 30.5% of the crypto collateral for loans in 2026. That's down from 57.8% last year, with most of that collateral now seen in Zcash. Zcash now represents 24.2% of collateral, versus being essentially zero last year. XRP's share of the collateral mix has grown this year, to 26.9%, and monero now represents 6.2% of the mix, versus 2.6% last year. "ZEC's rise as collateral is related to the sharp price rally that it experienced, growing from $50 in September 2025 to $800 today," says CryptoQuant in its note. ([email protected])1109 ET - Saudi Arabia attracted around $16.5 billion of orders for a $3.25 billion international sukuk, or Isalmic bonds sale, more than five times the amount issued, the National Debt Management Center says. The transaction comprised $1.25 billion of five-year sukuk maturing in 2031 and $2 billion of 10-year notes due in 2036. The deal is the kingdom's second international issuance using an Ijarah structure and forms part of its strategy to diversify its investor base and tap international debt markets opportunistically, NDMC says. ([email protected])1102 ET - Middle East-linked air-cargo routes remain under pressure even as global freight demand continues to grow, the International Air Transport Association says. Global cargo demand rose 3.9% on year in July, but traffic on the Europe-Middle East corridor fell 16.1% and Middle East-Asia volumes dropped 14.1%, marking a fifth consecutive month of contraction for both routes. Middle Eastern carriers overall recorded 1.7% demand growth while capacity increased 4%. Higher fuel prices and geopolitical tensions remain risks to the global cargo outlook, IATA says. ([email protected])1059 ET - The Bank of Canada strikes a more hawkish note with an emphasis on upside risks to inflation after the rebound in 2Q GDP and employment, TD Securities says. It notes the central bank points to renewed trade tensions posing a threat to this recovery, though policymakers downplay direct tariff impacts in their statement. TD still believes that excess supply leaves a longer runway for interest rate increases and it looks for the central bank to stay on hold through 2026. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1056 ET - The Bank of Canada is likely to remain on hold for longer than markets currently expect as the trade war with the U.S. increases monetary policy risk and raising inflationary pressures hamstring growth, Sibley Creek's Jay Zhao-Murray argues. The central bank for a seventh time in a row left its policy rate unchanged, faced with what Zhao-Murray notes are opposing forces. The economist expects interest rates to be left steady at the very least through the end of this year. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1050 ET - The Bank of Canada has been pinned to the sidelines, says Bank of Montreal's Benjamin Reitzes. He expects the central bank to be patient as it assesses how upside risk to inflation and uncertainty over growth with new tariffs play out, likely leaving it on hold into next year. He says the tone from the BoC's statement was slightly hawkish, with a clear increased concern due to higher oil prices and tariffs. Still, on the dovish side of things, he says the statement noted that financial conditions have tightened since July, due in part to the back-up in global bond yields. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1046 ET - Upside risk to inflation and downside risk to growth make it sensible for the Bank of Canada to sit tight until there is more clarity, KPMG Canada's Ali Jaffery reckons. "Market bets of rate rises in the near future are totally off, as usual," the economist says. The central bank again left its policy interest rate unchanged, and its accompanying statement and press release had a balanced tone, Jaffery says. KPMG expects the bank will remain on hold until the end of 2027. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1044 ET - Canada's central bankers remain firmly on the sidelines, highlighting a difficult balancing act as they confront another spike in oil prices and fresh wave of U.S. protectionism, Desjardins' Royce Mendes says. The latest round of U.S. tariffs risk derailing recent economic momentum in Canada, but the Bank of Canada doesn't expect the levies will have a large direct impact on overall activity. Still, Mendes notes persistently high energy prices translated into a more hawkish tone from the bank. The economist continues to expect the policy rate will be unchanged at 2.25% for the remainder of the year, then nudged up a half percentage point in 1H 2027. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1042 ET - Capital Economics says the Bank of Canada's stand-pat decision has a hawkish tilt due to its concern how the upside risks to inflation have increased due to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The firm's economist Stephen Brown adds the last paragraph removed a suggestion that the rate level was appropriate, and instead notes officials standby ready to adjust policy as needed. ([email protected]; @paulvieira)1036 ET - The Bank of Canada leaves its policy rate unchanged thanks to a fundamental economic story for Canada that remains largely unchanged despite considerable noise and uncertainty, Fitch Ratings' Joshua Grundleger says. Headline inflation in the country is still elevated, given the ongoing oil price shock, though this has yet to meaningfully pass through to core inflation. The economy outperformed in 2Q, growing 3.3%, yet pressure from the trade spat with the U.S. has heated up and that could weigh on the economy. With these factors in mind, Fitch expects the central bank to hold rates through 2028. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)