Ethereum Sees Return of ETF Demand — Market Talk

1234 ET - Ethereum is off 1.3% to $1,861, after climbing to around $1,950 earlier this week. Much like bitcoin, ethereum has seen a return of capital coming from ETFs. "After a prolonged period of net outflows, these funds are now heading toward a third consecutive week of positive net inflows," says Linh Tran of XS.com in a note. Ethereum ETFs have posted five straight days of net inflows, according to data from CoinGlass --but the macroeconomic environment continues to pressure riskier assets. "In this environment, capital tends to favor cash, the U.S. dollar, and defensive assets rather than expanding aggressively into the cryptocurrency market," says Tran. ([email protected])1139 ET - Cryptocurrency investors were increasingly optimistic this week about the passage of the Clarity Act, which supported prices for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. But that support has faded as the odds for the passage of the Clarity Act have decreased, says Alex Schmidt of CoinShares in a note. "This week demonstrated, in both directions, that the market is… trading the headline," says Schmidt. Decreasing the expectations around the passage of the bill is opposition from Senate Democrats over ethical concerns. Bitcoin is down 1.7% to just above $64,000, according to data from LSEG. Ethereum falls 1.2% to $1,862, XRP is down 1.8% to $1.09, and solana is down 2.8% to $73.94. ([email protected])1044 ET - Companies issued a 21% bigger volume of euro-denominated sustainable bonds, known as environmental, social and governance (ESG) bonds, in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period a year ago, LBBW's Matthias Schell says in a note. Supply of green bonds reached 53.7 billion euros ($61.1 billion) in the first half, a record high for any half-year period, Schell says. "The positive trend in ESG bonds is likely to continue," he says. ([email protected])1043 ET - BofA analysts expect the Fed will stay on hold next week in a target range of 3.5-3.75%, but the spike in oil prices makes it a close call. "Chair Warsh faces a difficult choice," they say in a note. "Not hiking could challenge the Fed's credibility on inflation. But raising rates would go against his framework of looking through supply shocks," they say. They still expect three 25 basis point hikes in September, October and December.([email protected])1007 ET - The Swiss franc falls to another 13-month low against the dollar as the recent jump in energy prices boosts expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The market sees a 34% chance that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday and is fully pricing a move by September, according to LSEG. This weighs on the low-yielding franc where markets see little chance of the Swiss National Bank raising rates any time soon. The dollar rises 0.2% on the day to as high as 0.8184 francs. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.9301 francs, having reached a six-month high of 0.9316 Thursday, LSEG data show. ([email protected])1003 ET - Bitcoin is down 1.1%, but at around $64,000 it remains elevated versus the multi-year lows it had found last month. Supporting this is the slow return of demand from ETFs after a steady streak of capital outflows. Prior to yesterday, bitcoin ETFs posted seven consecutive days of net inflows, giving prices a boost to nearly $67,000. While these are good signs for bitcoin investors, the token's fundamentals are fragile, says analysts with Coinbase Research in a note. "At next week's FOMC meeting, the Fed's guidance and rate decision will be crucial," says Coinbase. "If the Fed holds and long-term yields remain stable, we think bitcoin can remain resilient." Other major cryptocurrencies are lower, with ethereum down 1.1% to $1,864. ([email protected])0953 ET - Emerging market debt provides attractive investment opportunities, especially where real yields remain high, BlackRock's Michel Aubenas says in a note. "Parts of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa stand out in a more benign global rates environment," he says. If energy prices fall, this could lower the prospects of central banks raising interest rates and improve risk sentiment for emerging-market assets, Aubenas says. ([email protected])0950 ET - Sterling and euro were little moved by Friday's better-than-expected U.K. and eurozone purchasing managers' surveys as the data don't reflect the latest surge in energy prices, Monex Europe's Barry van der Laan says in a note. Both surveys were conducted between July 9 and 22, before Brent crude surged above $100 on the Middle East conflict, he says. "Had investors believed these surveys fundamentally changed the outlook for growth and inflation, both currencies should have responded positively." August PMIs and the next inflation releases carry more significance. They could show whether the renewed energy-price shock is impacting business confidence, pricing behaviors and activity, he says. Sterling and the euro are little changed at $1.3317 and $1.1371, respectively.([email protected])0945 ET - The dollar's strength looks set to persist until the U.S. and Iran can agree another ceasefire and energy prices come lower, ING analysts say in a note. A de-escalation in the conflict and a resumption in energy flows would cause oil prices to drop and U.S. interest rate rise expectations to unwind, they say. Should the conflict escalate and oil prices rise further, inflation would rise sharply and the Federal Reserve would need to respond by raising rates. The euro could fall below $1.13 while the dollar could rise to 165 yen, they say. The euro last trades down 0.1% at $1.1370 and the dollar is flat at 163.84 yen. ([email protected])0847 ET - An agreement to end the U.S.-Iran conflict wouldn't necessarily bode well for the euro even if it is positive for the eurozone economy, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. If oil prices fall on any de-escalation in the conflict, the market could price out interest-rate rise expectations for the European Central Bank, he says. This was evident after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June where the euro saw little support from a significant fall in oil prices, he says. For now, ECB rate-rise bets are mitigating the negative impact of the recent jump in oil prices due to the re-escalation in the conflict, he says. The euro trades steady at $1.1381. ([email protected])0840 ET - The latest U.S. tariffs on German goods imports increase uncertainty and create additional bureaucracy, the DIHK German chamber of commerce's trade chief Volker Treier says. "Uncertainty is, of course, poison for business." The Trump administration on Friday imposed a new 10% tariff on European Union products it said was designed to combat forced labor. Neither the accusations of insufficient measures against forced labor nor claims of alleged overcapacity stand up to scrutiny, Treier says. "It's clear Washington is trying to enforce tariffs that were halted in court in February through other legal avenues". On the positive side, the new tariffs incorporate the existing most favored nation tariffs, which mean the tariff rate should be below 15% in future, he says. ([email protected])0837 ET - The South African rand trades near its weakest level against the dollar since April in the wake of the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged Thursday. Rates were held at 7.0%, surprising many analysts who had expected a rate rise. The decision felt out of place on a day when Brent crude prices rose above $100 per barrel which should have significantly heightened inflation concerns, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. The policy statement also sounded "rather out of touch," signalling only one more rate rise in an adverse scenario compared to three previously, he says. The dollar rises 0.4% to 16.8777 rand, having risen to a 15-week high of 16.9797 earlier, LSEG data show. ([email protected])