Ethereum Breaks a Year-Long Pattern. The Chart Still Has One Warning

Ethereum has just done something it has not managed since its August 2025 record high.For the first time in more than a year, ETH has printed a higher high. It has also pushed through a resistance zone that repeatedly stopped previous rallies. So, what does this mean for Ethereum price? Will it break $3,000 this cycle?Ethereum Is Finally Back in Its Long-Term RangeCrypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says Ethereum has returned to its long-term logarithmic regression band, a range he uses to estimate where ETH sits relative to its historical trend.“At least this cycle I don’t have to spend the whole time calling for ETH to go home, considering it’s already there.” Cowen has said he favors dollar-cost averaging through the second half of the US midterm year, while still leaving room for another market shock later in Q4.Meanwhile, corporate.The Weekly Chart Has ChangedEthereum peaked near $4,957 in August 2025. Every major rally that followed ended with a lower high.That pattern has now broken. ETH reached $2,807 this week, while the former resistance around $2,438 has turned into support. The weekly RSI has climbed to 64. A move above $2,920 would strengthen the case for a push toward $3,400.But the Daily Chart Is Flashing a WarningThe problem is momentum. ETH keeps making higher highs, while the daily RSI is making lower highs. Traders call this bearish divergence. It can signal that a rally is losing strength.Trading volume is also falling.The key line is now around $2,440. Holding it keeps the bullish structure intact. Losing it could expose the 1,950–2,000 area.