Dow Futures Fall, Treasurys Yields Rise Heading Into Midterms — Update

By Joe StonorFutures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell and Treasury yields inched higher as investors braced for U.S. midterm elections later Tuesday.Oil prices regained some ground after falling sharply in the last session, adding to nervy market sentiment after a fresh round of artificial-intelligence fears hit stocks Monday.Dow futures were 0.8% lower, while futures for the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. Nasdaq futures gained 0.3% after a sharp drop Monday sealed the index's worst three-day run since April 2025. Chip makers recovered some ground premarket, though Apple shares fell 3.8% as margins tightened amid higher memory-chip costs.Midterm elections will dominate Tuesday's market outlook. AI investors are watching state elections closely for their implications for data-center projects across the country.Market consensus is that the election will be a so-called clearing event in which uncertainty is removed, Jefferies analysts said, though they don't think the election will substantively change the outlook."The midterms may increase headline risk, but they don't break the dominant market narratives," they said.Treasury yields edged higher ahead of the vote, with 10-year yields rising 3 basis points to trade around 4.925%. Two-year yields rose above 4.600% and 30-year yields hovered around 5.300%."Treasurys have more to contend with from this week's economic releases than from the election itself," said Laura Cooper, Nuveen's head of macro credit.Tech weakness late in the U.S. session Monday bled into trading in Asia and Europe on Tuesday. South Korea's semiconductor-dominated Kospi index closed 3.6% lower, while Shanghai-listed stocks also fell. European indexes were all in the red.Oil prices pared earlier gains to trade at levels close to Monday's close, with the benchmark Brent crude contract inching up 0.25% to $105.10 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to trade around $97.20 a barrel.The dollar was little moved, while gold futures fell by more than 1% in New York to trade near $3,900 a troy ounce. Bitcoin reversed earlier losses to add 0.8% to trade around $77,300.In addition to the midterm vote, macro data releases include U.S. job openings and factory orders for September. Advanced Micro Devices and Pfizer are among companies reporting earnings.Write to Joe Stonor at [email protected]