Doubling Canada's Electricity Supply Seen Adding C$3 Trillion to Economy — Market Talk

1424 ET - Doubling Canada's electricity supply and introducing more clean energy could offer significant benefits for the economy, new economic modeling suggests. A report from New Economy Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce compares an electrified-economy with a business-as-usual future based on current policies and measures. It finds that leaning into electrification could add a cumulative C$3 trillion to the economy by 2050 and support 1.6 million additional jobs by that year, while delivering C$5 in economic benefits for every C$1 invested in the power sector versus business as usual. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1340 ET - The drop in consumer confidence this month to its lowest reading since 2014 is emitting a warning sign for holiday spending, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach says in a note. The Iran conflict and stubborn inflation are weighing on households, he says. Americans feel jobs are more scarce and pulling back on plans for homes, cars and big-ticket purchases, even if employers aren't yet cutting workers to match the gloomy consumer outlook, Roach says. If forthcoming hard data matches the consumer confidence survey's findings, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates again this year, Roach says. ([email protected])1340 ET - Another factor driving consumer confidence lower in September was the surge in long-term interest rates in bond yields, says Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon's chief economist. A confluence of factors, including inflationary concerns and rising oil prices fueled a sell-off in the bond market. Mortgage rates also hit 7% in September. "Whether you look at inflation developments or interest rate developments, they're both constraining consumer spending power and capacity," Daco tells WSJ.([email protected])1303 ET - The disappointing round of consumer confidence and jobs data doesn't change the market's broader understanding of the economy or the expectation for forthcoming rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, BMO analysts say in a research note. Consumer sentiment has been slipping for some time, partly because of higher gas prices, they say. Jobs openings slipped, but the JOLTS report overall shows stable labor market conditions, they say. The market's muted response to the data reinforces the assumption that it would take a big shift in the labor picture, like a big jump in unemployment or big undershoot of payrolls, to change the momentum behind further rate cuts, the analysts say. ([email protected])1250 ET - While analysts say that a positive sentiment around bitcoin is starting to fade, at least in the short-term, data shows that investors are accumulating long-facing options at over $90,000. Other popular targets include strike prices of $95,000 and $100,000, according to data from Deribit. Fund traders are continuing to return to bitcoin ETFs as well, with days of consecutive inflows now up to 8 days - with an inflow of $31 million seen yesterday, according to data from Coinglass. Bitcoin is currently trading lower, down 0.3% to $83,238. Ethereum is flat at $2,682, XRP is up 1.5% $1.52, and solana is down 0.2% to $118.57. ([email protected])1210 ET - With no end in sight for the bonds selloff, investors are left searching for relatively safe spots in the yield curve. SanJac Alpha's Andrew Wells says the seven-to-10-year section could be that spot. "For now, we view duration with skepticism," he says. Upcoming data will drive markets, but the yields are biased upwards, as market's sentiment is "Asymmetrically hawkish in only one direction," Wells says in an email. A hot PCE print tomorrow will give "more tightening ammunition," while a soft one will be discounted as "August data that isn't accounting for September oil," he says. The 30-year yield hits 5.612%, a 24-year high. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)1143 ET - Select altcoins are posting big gains, with Avalanche (AVAX) up 8.8% to $11.54. Aave, the token native to the Aave DeFi platform, is jumping 17.3% to $175.40. For both Aave and AVAX, it's the highest the tokens have traded at since January. Interest in altcoins continues to drive recent cryptocurrency trading, with activity in altcoin at its highest since last October, according to analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. However, the firm also says, demand for bitcoin appears to be cooling in the short term, which may soon be a drag on altcoins. Bitcoin climbs 0.4% to $83,799, ethereum rises 1.2% to $2,712, and XRP is up 3.5% to $1.55. ([email protected])1125 ET - Today's disappointing headline figure for consumer-confidence data shouldn't come as a surprise, eToro's Bret Kenwell says in a note. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, gas prices are still high and inflation continues to outpace wage growth, squeezing consumers' spending power, Kenwell says. Sentiment is currently sitting at multi-year lows from persistent inflation and higher costs putting pressure on households, he says. The question now is whether these factors will weigh on consumer spending, Kenwell says. ([email protected])1101 ET - Buying a new home is now typically a better value than an existing home nationwide, Zillow says. New homes now sell for a median of $205 per square foot, below the $212 median for existing homes, according to a Zillow study. The relative discount for new homes is usually biggest where construction surged during the pandemic boom, particularly in the Sun Belt. This reverses the trend in recent years, when new homes sold for more per square foot than existing homes in 77 of 84 months from 2018 to 2024. Where construction has boomed and inventory is plentiful, discounts run deeper as increased competition gives builders more reason to offer incentives. Where inventory remains locked up and new construction faces more hurdles, builder offerings lean toward the higher end and carry a premium, Zillow says. ([email protected])1057 ET - The August JOLTS report showed available job positions sliding to 7.1 million from 7.3 million in July, a bigger downward drift than economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had been expecting. JOLTS might not carry the same weight as the monthly jobs report on Friday, but this is the third time in a row that the results have been weaker than expected, eToro's Bret Kenwell says in a note. The report reinforces the low-hire, low-fire backdrop that has taken hold, Kenwell says. ([email protected])1049 ET - The latest data suggests Canada's economy is holding up a little better than previously anticipated in 3Q, with GDP growth tracking around a 2% annualized pace, CIBC Capital Markets' Andrew Grantham says. That is modestly above CIBC's prior forecast of 1.6% growth but Grantham still suspects the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs and the indirect impact on consumer and business confidence will likely result in growth slowing in the near term and dipping below 1% in 4Q. Assuming a trade deal is reached, growth should pick up again to start 2027, the economist adds. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)1045 ET - The Conference Board reports consumer confidence fell sharply in September as gasoline prices surged and consumers grew more pessimistic about business and labor-market conditions. As economists monitor Wednesday's PCE inflation report--the Fed's preferred inflation measure--the Conference Board survey shows that the share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped by 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%.([email protected])