CryptoQuant says bitcoin has entered bull market but needs to cross $83,000 for ‘official’ confirmation

Bitcoin has entered the early phase of a new bull market after rallying more than 25% since early last week, but it still needs to close above its 365-day moving average, which currently stands near $83,000, for "official" confirmation, according to CryptoQuant.The onchain analytics firm said bitcoin moved as high as over $81,000 this week due to two macro catalysts: the U.S. Treasury's plan to double its long-term government bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from Sept. 9, and President Donald Trump's comments suggesting the U.S. government may be considering buying bitcoin."Historically, bitcoin's bull markets have 'officially' begun when price crosses above its 365-day moving average (red line in the chart), and bear markets when it crosses below — a definitive signal in past cycles (black crosses in the chart)," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a Tuesday report. "Price closed at $79,000, roughly 5% below the 365-day MA, now at $83,100. A decisive break above $83,000 would confirm the new bull market; until then, that level is likely to act as initial resistance, with the possibility of an early bull market correction."CryptoQuant said its Bull Score has also jumped from 30 to 80 in one week, its strongest reading since Oct. 6, 2025, when bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $124,000. The firm said eight of the 10 onchain, market and valuation metrics in the score are now flashing bullish.Demand also supports the shift, according to CryptoQuant. The firm said apparent spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December. Spot and futures demand are also expanding together for the first time since early October 2025, when bitcoin reached its previous all-time high.CryptoQuant said that setup reflects "genuine spot accumulation alongside returning leverage."'Short-term overheated'However, the firm said the market looks overheated in the short term. Traders' unrealized profit margin has climbed to 20.5%, its highest level since June 2025. The firm said similar profit levels have historically led traders to realize gains, adding selling pressure.Short-term holders, or "new" whales, have also started taking profits, CryptoQuant noted. The firm said these holders booked $1.2 billion in realized profits from Aug. 20 to Aug. 22, including a single-day record of $614 million on Aug. 20 as bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000.Exchange inflows have also risen across major crypto assets. Bitcoin inflows climbed to about 53,000 BTC, the highest since June 5, while ether (ETH) inflows jumped to about 1.7 million ETH, also the highest since June 5. XRP whale inflows (XRP) rose to about 460 million XRP, their highest level since February, while altcoin 7-day cumulative transactions rose to around 39,000 deposit transactions, the highest since early July, with most of the transactions going to Binance, CryptoQuant said."When holders transfer Bitcoin (or ETH, XRP and other assets) onto exchanges — especially in a sudden spike after a sharp rally — it signals intent to distribute, take profit, or hedge, and it expands the readily sellable supply," CryptoQuant said.Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.