Cryptocurrencies Push Higher in Relief Rally — Market Talk

1042 ET - With the Fed meeting passing with no change to interest rates, major cryptocurrencies are seeing a "relief rally," says Bret Kenwell of eToro in a note. The sector appears to be riding higher along with equities, also reacting to the latest report from the Labor Department showing a 0.1-point decrease in headline PCE, to 3.7%. Core PCE rose 0.1 points from the same time last year to 3.3%, although that's down 0.1 points from the prior month. Bitcoin is up 2% to $64,710. Ethereum rises 1.9% to $1,919, XRP is up 1.7% to $1.08, and solana climbs 2.5% to $74.40. ([email protected])1009 ET - U.S. pending home sales fell to their lowest level since early April during the four weeks ending July 26, according to Redfin. That's a 1.7% drop in the last week alone. Redfin says tours of home listings are up 15% since the start of the year, compared with a 31% increase at this time last year, according to data from ShowingTime, a real estate metrics and analytics site. Homebuying demand is declining partly because mortgage rates are rising, Redfin says. The daily average rate rose to 6.85% at the end of last week, the highest level in over a year. Although the labor market remains strong, the combination of high borrowing costs and widespread economic uncertainty is prompting many house hunters to press pause, Redfin says. ([email protected])0934 ET - Just over one in three Canadian workers used generative artificial intelligence tools on the job in the past year, data from Statistics Canada shows. The agency's survey shows 41.6% of workers reported having used at least one AI or automation technology as part of their main job or business, with generative AI tools by far the most common, having been used by 35.9% of workers. Generative AI tools were more prevalent in professional, scientific and technical services roles, followed by the finance, insurance and real estate sectors. The lowest use was reported in accommodation and food services and agriculture. The data shows that for Canadians using generative AI in the past 12 months, most used it moderately in their work--that is, they used AI tools for some but not most tasks. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)0930 ET - Canadian payroll numbers ticked up by 24,100, or 0.1%, in May even as job vacancies across the country were little changed for a fifth consecutive month. This follows a increase of 59,000 in April and a flat March. Statistics Canada data shows retail employment rose a third month running, bringing the cumulative gain since March to 20,500, or 1%. Payroll employment in public administration was also up a third straight month, continuing an upward trend since February, and job numbers in health care and social services were up in May. The overall number of employees receiving pay and benefits from an employer was up 0.6% on a year earlier in the latest month. Canada's more timely labor force survey found employment jumped by 87,800 in May and a further 18,200 in June, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.5%, back to where it was in January. ([email protected]; @RobbMStewart)0925 ET - The Bank of England could continue signalling its willingness to raise interest rates at future meetings, while leaving rates on hold, Insight Investment's Jessica Shuman says in a note. U.K. financial conditions have tightened due to investors pricing in the probability of a BOE rate rise later in 2026 and already-high government borrowing costs, Shuman says. The BOE on Thursday voted to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%. ([email protected])0857 ET - The Bank of England's decision leave interest rates unchanged Thursday shows a divergence between the vote split and the central bank's rhetoric, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. The BOE voted 6-3 to hold rates steady with three policymakers favoring a rate rise, more than expected. However, the BOE's remarks point to clear signs of disinflation and little evidence of second-round effects of higher energy prices, he says. This mismatch is unusual and points to a divided BOE, he says. "The Monetary Policy Committee now sees inflation peaking much closer to 3% than 4% this year, which we don't think is high enough to warrant undue panic or force the bank's hand." ([email protected])0853 ET - Treasury yields rise as markets react to U.S. indicators while struggling to figure out Fed Chairman Warsh's plans for inflation. An early estimate points to 2Q GDP slowing to 1.5% annualized pace from 1Q's 2.1%. WSJ consensus was 1.8%. June PCE inflation meets expectations. Weekly jobless claims accelerate slightly less than forecast, to 197,000. The Fed kept rates steady yesterday and while markets still price a hike in September, analysts picked up dovish notes in Warsh's press conference. The U.S. retaliates against Iranian attacks and Brent crude remains near $90. The 10-year yield rises to 4.679% from yesterday's settle of 4.621%. The two-year increases to 4.256% from 4.235%. ([email protected]; @ptrevisani)0845 ET - U.K. inflation remains above the 2% Bank of England target and this opens the possibility of a BOE rate rise in September, Mattioli Woods' Katy Stoves says in a note. The BOE on Thursday voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with six members in favor while three members voted to increase interest rates. Money markets currently price in a 31% chance of a quarter-point BOE rate increase in September, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0840 ET - The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for a prolonged period provided energy markets remain contained, Charles Stanley Direct's Rob Morgan says in a note. "Rate cuts are impossible to justify so long as inflation risks loom large on the horizon, while quelling it with a rate rise would increase borrowing costs and make things even harder for large parts of the economy." Policymakers see encouraging signs inflationary pressures will moderate once the energy price shock passes. However, until policymakers are more confident that higher energy costs won't ignite wider price escalation or feed into wage demands, higher rates cannot be ruled out, he says. The BOE voted 6-3 to keep rates at 3.75% Thursday, with three policymakers favoring a rate hike. ([email protected])0837 ET - The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, with six members voting in favor while three members voted to raise rates by 25 basis points. "Three members in favor of a hike indicates that policymakers remain cautious about the inflation outlook," Hargreaves Lansdown's Alice Haine says in a note. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed up energy costs and raised the risk of high global inflation. The BOE said that there is little evidence so far to show second-round effects of inflation. However, the BOE noted that the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside relative to the central projection in the July Monetary Policy Report. ([email protected])0834 ET - There remains a meaningful probability of a Bank of England interest-rate hike at either the September or November meeting, as policymakers continue to be concerned about volatility in the Middle East and the upside risks to energy prices, Raj Badiani, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said. Yet the on-off ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has helped dissipate some of the global energy-price shock arising from the conflict, despite uncertainty over any longer-term agreement, he says. "As a result, we expect a lower peak in U.K. headline inflation over the coming months, reducing pressure on the BOE to consider interest-rate increases in the near term," he says. ([email protected])0830 ET - Although the Bank of England continued to signal the possibility of raising interest rates Thursday, this looks unlikely, Capital Economics economist Paul Dales says. The BOE expects inflation to reach a peak of 3.2% in the fourth quarter before falling below 2.0% at the start of 2028. Capital Economics expects inflation to peak at 3.5% but sees it falling quicker to 2.0% by the end of 2027. "That's why we don't think interest rates need to rise," Dales says. "In fact, if we're right, interest rates may be cut to 3.00% in 2027." The BOE voted 6-3 to leave rates at 3.75%. ([email protected])