‘Communication challenge, nothing more’: Standard Chartered keeps $100,000 bitcoin target, calls Strategy selloff a signaling problem

Standard Chartered is maintaining its end-2026 bitcoin price forecast of $100,000, arguing that recent weakness driven by Strategy Inc. (MSTR) reflects a failure to explain a strategic shift rather than any deterioration in the company's balance sheet.Strategy's actions are muddying bitcoin's near-term prospects, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, wrote in a note shared with The Block on Friday. "I see what is happening at MSTR right now as a communication challenge, nothing more," Kendrick wrote.The company appears to be moving away from its "never sell bitcoin" mantra toward a more complex approach, and clear communication of that pivot will determine how quickly the pressure on bitcoin lifts, Kendrick opined.From an accumulation vehicle to a credit backingStrategy owns 843,775 bitcoins (BTC), more than 4% of the 21 million BTC supply that will ever exist.Between 2020 and mid-2025, the company's mNAV — enterprise value divided by the value of its bitcoin holdings — traded well above 1.0, letting Strategy issue shares, buy bitcoin, and increase its own value by more than the value of the newly issued stock. Convincing the market it would never sell was the load-bearing part of that model.With mNAV now around 1.0, that arithmetic no longer works.Kendrick noted that Strategy is instead pivoting toward holding bitcoin as backing for STRC, its perpetual preferred stock, which functions as a credit product.The STRC feedback loopStrategy's STRC pays a 12% annual dividend, settled semi-monthly in cash, with the rate adjusted monthly to incentivize the security trading near its $100 par value. It has around $10 billion notional outstanding, making it the largest of the financial instruments Strategy has deployed.A negative feedback loop between Strategy's actions and bitcoin prices took hold once STRC broke sharply from par, hitting an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26. That divergence began after the June 1 announcement that Strategy had sold 32 BTC the previous week.The market has yet to be convinced, with STRC still trading around $90, according to Standard Chartered. The USD reserve held to pay STRC dividends stands at $2.55 billion, equal to 17.4 months of coverage.Tuning out the noiseThe problem with "never sell" is that it constrains how bitcoin can be perceived as doing, Kendrick argued.Strategy has now announced a monetization program allowing it to sell bitcoin from time to time, including to generate up to $1.25 billion in proceeds for the reserve.Effective signaling of the new arrangement should remove the need for Strategy to sell any bitcoin at all, by supporting STRC's price, Kendrick wrote. He compared the mechanism to a central bank promising to do "whatever it takes" and, through credibility alone, never having to act.Given its bitcoin backing, STRC is heavily overcollateralized and should trade back toward $100, the note argued.Kendrick expects that to happen soon, which would limit further downward pressure on bitcoin. He treats the episode as noise rather than a signal about bitcoin's medium-term direction, and at $64,000, he calls the coin "a screaming buy."Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million last week, its largest disposal to date, using the proceeds to fund preferred stock distributions and replenish the reserve. JPMorgan analysts said the formalization of the sale policy introduces "avoidable two-way risk" into crypto markets by making Strategy both a buyer and a seller.Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl took the opposite view, arguing that the sales strengthen the balance sheet and help bitcoin find a more durable bottom. Strategy's stock closed Thursday at about $93, according to The Block's MSTR price page. Bitcoin was trading above $64,300 on Friday.Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.