Comex Gold Futures' Bullish Setup Remains Intact, Daily Chart Shows — Market Talk

0717 GMT - Comex gold futures' bullish setup remains intact, based on a daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a report. The relative strength index continued moving upward, reaffirming bullish momentum is in play, the analyst notes. The precious metal will probably see follow-through upward momentum to break beyond resistance at $4,400 per ounce, Chai says. At this juncture, both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages are serving as support levels, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.6% lower at $4,363.44 per ounce. ([email protected])0717 GMT - Bitcoin falls as hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz fade, causing investors to shun risky assets. President Trump said he would seek reparations for the Iran war after Tehran made its own demands for compensation as part of its conditions for reopening the strait. The impasse lifts oil prices and boosts expectations for interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve, hitting risk sentiment. The oil-price rally is making markets anxious ahead of Wednesday's U.S. inflation data, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Bitcoin falls 0.3% to $63,933, LSEG data show. ([email protected])0703 GMT - Singapore's economy still faces risks despite its strong 1H performance, says RHB Bank's group chief economist Barnabas Gan in a report. Economic activity has remained resilient, partly due to robust export performance amid external headwinds. The electronics and precision engineering segments should continue to boost Singapore's manufacturing growth for the rest of the year. However, global geopolitical developments and the risk of a sharper-than-expected correction in artificial intelligence-related investment could weaken global demand for semiconductors, memory chips and server-related products. This would weigh on Singapore's electronics exports, industrial production and its overall economic growth given its role in the global semiconductor value chain.([email protected])0701 GMT - The yields on eurozone government bonds are higher due to inflation concerns, as prospects of a near-term resolution to the U.S.-Iran war fade. The U.S. has decided to put economic pressure on Iran through financial sanctions and a blockade of Iranian ports in an attempt to force Iran to reach a deal with the U.S. The lack of progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations is causing inflation fears and pushing up sovereign bond yields. Ten-year Bund yields climb 2.3 bps to 3.198%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year French government bond yields rise 3.4 bps to 4.009%. ([email protected])0652 GMT - Treasury yields rise while the dollar trades steady as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear to have stalled, lifting oil prices. President Trump said he will demand war reparations from Iran after Tehran called for compensation for the destruction caused by the conflict. Markets are pricing an increased chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September in response to higher oil prices with LSEG data showing the probability back above 50% after being scaled back briefly following Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 2.3 basis points at 4.721%, Tradeweb data show. The DXY dollar index is flat at 99.834 with investors cautious ahead of Wednesday's U.S. inflation data.([email protected])0609 GMT - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock has sent a number of hawkish signals at her press conference following the central bank's decision to keep rate on hold. Most notably she says that its "quite possible" that interest rates will need to rise further, while also highlighting the potential for ongoing supply shocks to the economy. The comments support the view that the RBA is well short of feeling relaxed about inflation, even after a unanimous decision by the board to sit pat. ([email protected]; Twitter @JamesGlynnWSJ)0536 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia's revised economic forecasts suggest the central bank is nearing a level of comfort about policy settings. The unemployment rate path has been revised higher. The RBA now expects it to reach 4.5% by December, up from 4.3%. The biggest changes are on inflation. Headline CPI is now expected at 3.6% by December, down from 4.0% previously. Trimmed mean inflation has been revised lower to 3.3% by December from 3.5%, and is projected to reach 2.4% by June 2028. The direction of all these indicators suggests the RBA is near the end of its tightening cycle. ([email protected]; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)0535 GMT - The RBA tones down its hawkish bias by "just a touch," Capital Economics' Abhijit Surya says in commentary. The central bank's "accompanying messaging wasn't quite as hawkish this time around," says the senior APAC economist. The RBA reiterated that it'll do what it considers necessary to return inflation to target, including raising the cash rate target further, however, the central bank conditioned that response in the event that "upside risks materialize," Surya notes. "While the Board continued to talk tough on inflation, we don't believe that it will go as far as to hike rates again this cycle," the economist adds. ([email protected])0518 GMT - The RBA left the cash rate unchanged in a unanimous decision, striking a careful balance in its policy message. It judged rates to be "somewhat restrictive" but stressed headline inflation remains too high and is likely to stay elevated until late 2027, with risks still tilted to the upside, says Wee Khoon Chong, macro strategist at BNY. The RBA retained a hawkish bias, reiterating its willingness to raise rates further if upside inflation risks materialize, he adds. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)0456 GMT - Singapore's 2H GDP growth will likely continue to be driven by the boom in global artificial intelligence capital expenditure, the domestic construction upcycle and safe haven capital inflows, Maybank economists say in a report. The AI capex boom would also support Singapore's exports, they add. Robust credit demand amid strong trade and investment activity locally and regionally should still support the financial sector's growth. The government also has ample fiscal dry powder, even after introducing two support packages worth around 2 billion Singapore dollars. Maybank raises its 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore to 5.2% and 3.3%, respectively, from 4.8% and 3.1% projected previously.([email protected])0415 GMT - Acting Bank Indonesia Gov. Destry Damayanti's nomination as the sole candidate for governor should help ease concerns about the central bank's independence, Capital Economics' Gareth Leather says in a note. Her nomination is a welcome development, as it should provide continuity at the central bank, the senior Asia economist says. "A key test of her credentials will come next week, when BI holds its policy meeting," he adds. The central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold, which would give further reassurance that monetary policy will remain focused on maintaining stability. ([email protected])0412 GMT - Bitcoin is little changed in Asian trade as the market remains in a transitional recovery phase from its late-June lows, says Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish. The cryptocurrency is trading in a narrow range and has stabilized around $65,000. Trading activity on centralized crypto exchanges remains soft, although some buying interest has started to return, Beamish says. More money is flowing in from large investors, while futures traders are also becoming less cautious. However, spot liquidity is still relatively low and activity on the bitcoin blockchain remains weak, suggesting the recovery has yet to become broad-based, Glassnode adds. Bitcoin is last trading flat at $64,099.79. ([email protected])