Cattle Extends Gradual Uptrend — Market Talk

1509 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME settled up 1.2% to $2.22175 a pound, resuming an upward trend seen in cattle futures in the past month. Cattle has been gradually pushing higher after finding a low around $2.10 a pound in early September. That comes even though the U.S.-Mexico border has been gradually reopening after being closed in an effort to control the spread of New World screwworm. Cattle is also trending higher ahead of Friday's Cold Storage report from the USDA. Lean hog futures settle the day down 0.9% to 70.375 cents a pound. ([email protected])1502 ET - PG&E is dealing with a growing risk from inaction on wildfire liability reform, UBS analysts say, downgrading the stock to neutral from buy. While the analysts expect work on wildfire legislation to continue, there hasn't been action. California Governor Gavin Newsom has spoken about a potential special session on AI, but hasn't mentioned something similar for wildfire reform, the analysts say. They see the delay in a wildfire reform resolution as a negative for PG&E's performance. UBS cuts its price target on the stock to $14 from $19, and lowers its estimate for 2028 earnings per share to $1.90 from $1.95. ([email protected])1457 ET - The U.S./China summit is really about "buying time," according to Oxford Economics. The economists say "China wants to preserve export access while reducing external technology dependence. The U.S. wants to limit near-term supply-chain disruption and build manufacturing capacity at home." They say both sides need time to build credible substitutes. As for actual deliverables from the summit, they expect limited tariff relief, potentially stronger purchase commitments in agriculture and aircraft, and agreements or commitments to cooperate on a narrow set of issues, including AI safety and Iran. That would leave thornier issues around tech rivalry and Taiwan unresolved, Oxford says. ([email protected])1423 ET - The Bank of Mexico is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% in a third consecutive hold Thursday, with core inflation showing signs of moderation. "We think Banxico will look through a pre-emptive Fed hiking cycle, as diverging domestic demand conditions should give the board room to allow the policy-rate differential to narrow below historical lows," analysts at BBVA say in a note. "Stronger 2Q activity has further weakened the case for additional easing, while persistent economic slack and gradually moderating core services inflation provide little reason to tighten," they add. ([email protected])1351 ET - Bitcoin ETFs have posted a net inflow of more than $2.3 billion over four consecutive days, with more than $1.7 billion of that reported in the past two days, according to data from Coinglass. Analysts now say the next psychological price level for bitcoin is at $90,000. "We expect the $80,500 or so region to provide the first area of support and then for the $85,000 to 86,500 region to continue acting as resistance until the next range breakout is catalysed," says analysts with Bitfinex in a note. Bitcoin is trading down 2.7% to $83,883. ([email protected])1312 ET - August saw housing inventory in New York state grow, while pending and closed sales both saw a decline, the New York State Association of Realtors says in a report. New listing were up 5.1% year-over-year to 13,640 homes from 12,981 in August 2025. The number of homes for sale in the month was up 8% from August 2025, at 34,037. Pending sales fell 4% from the year ago period, to 9,837 homes from 10,247 in August 2025. Closed sales dropped 1.8% in August from August 2025, to 10,673 homes. The statewide average sales price rose 6.3% in August, to $633,578 from $596,215 in August of last year, the group says. ([email protected])1256 ET - The global crypto economy barely contracted in the 12 months that ended in June despite a roughly 50% drop in crypto asset prices, according to a new report from Chainalysis. Economic activity in the crypto space measured at $9.4 trillion in the year that ended June 30, down just 1.6% from year prior, the report says. The growing diversity of crypto use cases helped to blunt the impact of falling prices, the analysts say. Cross-border stablecoin activity accelerated sharply, person-to-person transfers gained ground globally, and Latin America actually increased its crypto activity, the report says. ([email protected])1252 ET - Inflation in Mexico likely saw a modest pick-up in the first half of September on increases in fresh food prices, while core inflation is expected to remain steady. The consumer price index is seen rising 0.28% in the first two weeks of this month, nudging the 12-month inflation rate up to 3.37% from 3.26% in the second half of August, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Core CPI, which excludes perishable foods and energy, is expected to have increased 0.21%, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.83%. Statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to report mid-September inflation on Thursday.([email protected])1246 ET - Bitcoin has moved above the cost bases that held it back earlier in the year and remains elevated thanks in part to a pullback in profit-taking, Glassnode analysts say in a note. The current price range between $84,000 and $85,000 has Bitcoin sitting just above a large block of long-term holder supply, the analysts say. Profit taking is a fraction of what it was when the flagship cryptocurrency was at its 2024 and 2025 highs, even though almost all short-term holders are currently in profit, they say. Bitcoin ETF buying is also picking up, while spot volume has more than doubled from its August low, the analysts say. ([email protected])1236 ET - Bitcoin might have more fuel left in the tank to add to its recent gains, says Frederik Theissen of Glassnode in a note. Theissen points to open interest in bitcoin options, which according to data from Deribit shows that call options are building for options at strike prices ranging from $91,000 to $102,000. Trader behavior appears to be signaling that investors are holding onto bitcoin, seemingly expecting further gains ahead. "Profit taking is a fraction of what it was at the 2024-2025 tops, even though almost all short-term holders are in profit," says Theissen. Bitcoin is down 2.6% to $83,985, while ethereum falls 3.4% to $2,657, XRP is down 4.2% to $1.51, and solana is down 2.8% to $114.66. ([email protected])1231 ET - The PMI data signals downstream price pressures remain intense, but it shows a more mixed picture of pass-through to consumers, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The composite PMI input prices index jumped to a 46-month high of 66.1, from 58.9, reflecting the renewed upward climb in energy prices. But the manufacturing output prices index dipped to 59.2, from 59.4," Senior US Economist Oliver Allen says is in a note. He adds that while this still leaves the index consistent with much firmer core goods expectations over the next few months, he still expects upward pressure on core goods inflation from energy prices to be offset by tariff-driven price increases dropping out of the year-over-year comparison. This should dovetail with further weakness in many core services components brought on by slowing wage growth. ([email protected])1134 ET — Gulf non-oil activity is recovering toward prewar levels as businesses adapt their supply chains to regional disruption, S&P Global Market Intelligence says. Aggregate activity across the G.C.C. economies covered by its PMI surveys expanded in August at a pace only just below February's prewar level, as new orders rose sharply and business confidence reached a six-month high. Supplier delivery times also improved for a fourth consecutive month amid better logistics, material availability and greater use of local suppliers. Non-oil activity growth reached a seven-month high in Saudi Arabia and a six-month high in the U.A.E., while output in Qatar contracted further, S&P says. ([email protected])