Can Bitcoin Hold $70,000 Ahead of 'Nearly Inevitable' December Rate Hike?

Bitcoin faces renewed downside pressure as hotter-than-expected inflation fuels expectations of a But analysts point to historical resilience, improving global liquidity and signs of retail capitulation as potential recovery catalysts.Strive’s Bitcoin Strategy Vice President Joe Burnett noted that Bitcoin has historically delivered strong long-term returns despite tighter monetary policy.The Fed raised interest rates 20 times between 2015 and 2023. Bitcoin traded higher three years after every hike.He highlighted a median three-year compound annual growth rate of 71% following those hikes.BTC’s Relation With Global Net LiquidityAnalyst Kevin Capital emphasized Bitcoin’s strong relationship with global net liquidity and how liquidity expansion fueled prior bull markets.Bitcoin surged 49,330% between 2011 and 2013 as global liquidity rose 19%, followed by gains of 10,847% between 2015 and 2017 and 1,987% between 2018 and2021 as liquidity increased 31% and 54%, respectively.Between 2022 and 2025, Bitcoin gained just 690% as liquidity fell 6%, marking its weakest bull cycle by this measure.Kevin noted that the Fed has ended quantitative tightening, China’s central bank continues adding liquidity and the dollar has weakened.A potential December rate hike remains a major headwind.Retail Capitulation Signals A Bitcoin BottomSantiment reported that Bitcoin has lost nearly 108,700 non-empty wallets since Oct. 16, signaling retail capitulation that has historically preceded recoveries.The firm identified three key signals:$74,000–$75,000: Holding support could signal seller exhaustion.1.28 million BTC: Low exchange supply suggests limited selling pressure.$78,000–$80,000: Reclaiming this range could strengthen the recovery outlook.Preview Image: Shutterstock