BofA CEO Sees Convergence in Higher- and Lower-Income Spending — Market Talk

1031 ET - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan is sticking with his research team's call that the Fed will raise rates three times in September, October and December. "They really are saying that the labor market is in very good condition and so you have to work on the inflation side and make sure that it keeps going down," he says on CNBC. He adds that, right now, Bank of America's forecast for three rate rises should get the Fed in a place where FOMC members feel inflation is tamed. Moynihan also says he's seeing more convergence in the spending patterns of higher and lower income customers. "That's very good," he says. ([email protected])1011 ET - Bitcoin has been rangebound in recent weeks, which has been an opportunity for big buyers — otherwise known as "whales." These whales are seen as accumulating bitcoin at these price levels, says analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. "Bitcoin whale holdings (excluding exchanges and mining pools) have risen through 2026 to roughly 3.06M BTC, with whales adding aggressively as price dipped below $60K in June," says the firm. CoinMarketCap reports that the Crypto Fear and Greed index remains below the threshold between "fear" and "neutral", at a score of 38 out of 100. Bitcoin is down 0.5% to $64,012. ([email protected])1009 ET - The dollar's potential to weaken is limited even if Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is worse than expected, TD Securities strategists say in a note. "Our base case is for the DXY dollar index to still stay above its 200-day simple moving average on the 99-handle under this scenario." The dollar has fallen significantly in recent days and investors are unlikely to accumulate bets against the currency until U.S. inflation data start to soften, they say. In the case of a better-than-expected report, the dollar has more room to consolidate higher as a solid jobs report could increase expectations for U.S. interest-rate rises, they say. The DXY falls 0.1% 99.757. ([email protected])0929 ET - Stablecoins have seen significant growth in the past few years but their long-term prospects remain uncertain, ING's Marine Leleux says in a note. Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to another asset, reached nearly $300 billion in market capitalization at the end of 2025 but future growth depends on whether they can expand into the broader payment world, she says. "Part of the path to becoming a broadly-adopted instrument depends on the presence of a regulatory framework and interoperability with existing payment systems." However, political approaches to stablecoins varies across the globe with notable differences between the U.S. and Europe, she says. That means stablecoins could evolve as primarily domestic or regional instruments, potentially constraining growth, she says. ([email protected])0927 ET - The yield curve is a simple market indicator for central banks' credibility when they are facing mounting inflation risk, MFS Investment Management's Benoit Anne says in a note. "When the curve flattens in the context of rising inflation risks, typically this would be associated with a credible inflation-fighting central bank," the head of market insights says. The yield curve flattens when market participants anticipate short-term rates will rise and believe that inflation will be kept under control, implying that long-dated yields won't rise as much, he says. The curve tends to steepen, however, when the central bank is perceived to be less credible at fighting inflation, causing long-dated yields to rise more. ([email protected])0922 ET - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says on CNBC that strong corporate earnings, the consumer and the labor market all serve as evidence that policy may not be truly restrictive enough to bring inflation down to target. Kashkari was one of the three dissenters at last week's Fed meeting advocating for a quarter-point rate hike, and he is a voting member this year on the FOMC. When discussing the frequency of the Fed's annual meetings, he says he is open-minded, noting that the FOMC always has the ability to call emergency meetings. "I don't have a strong view," he says. ([email protected])0904 ET - Sterling could come under pressure as the summer draws to a close, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Markets could price out interest-rate rises for the Bank of England and grow nervous ahead of the autumn budget under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, she says. "While the budget threatens to cast a shadow over the pound post summer, it remains RaboResearch's view that the market has overestimated the risk of BOE rate hikes." The market has reduced expectations for a rate rise by year-end following a recent pullback in oil prices but this is still too aggressive, she says. The euro trades flat at 0.8571 pounds and Rabobank favors buying it on any falls to 0.8550. ([email protected])0853 ET - Treasury yields are mixed as oil prices edge up. Mideast mediators are working on a temporary fix for the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. indicating a deal might be near. ADP says private employers added 44,000 jobs in July versus the WSJ consensus of 75,000. The report comes ahead of Friday's July jobs numbers from the U.S. Labor Department. Economists polled by WSJ expect payrolls of 83,000. Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Minneapolis Fed, says on CNBC that "now is the time to start slowly moving" rates up. Kashkari dissented against the FOMC's decision last week to leave rates unchanged, saying he preferred to raise the target rate for fed funds by 0.25 percentage point. The 10-year yield is at 4.62%, down from 4.63% Tuesday. The two-year is 4.21%, up from 4.19%. ([email protected])0837 ET - Markets welcome reports about U.K. government plans to increase spending on infrastructure and housing with an aim to boost economic growth. The Times reported that ministers are creating plans to flex the U.K. fiscal rules in order to raise funds for the projects. Investors likely see this plan as a "step towards more growth-focused fiscal stance," Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez Liechti says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2.1 basis points to last trade at 4.898%, having hit a 3.5-week low of 4.879% earlier, Tradeweb data show. ([email protected])0821 ET - Bitcoin edges lower amid continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. President Trump said he had good discussions with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz would be opened soon but warned he would hit the country hard if that didn't happen. Iran has said there are no talks with the U.S. Meanwhile, Coinkite said AI failed to detect a software flaw that allowed hackers to steal funds from users of the company's bitcoin storage device Coldcard. On the regulatory front, it's unclear whether the U.S. Senate will hold a vote on the Clarity Act crypto bill before a month-long recess at the end of the week. Bitcoin drops 0.4% to $64,034, LSEG data show.([email protected])0705 ET - U.K. retail investors say they are most likely to increase allocations in cash given the high interest rates currently, the latest quarterly Retail Investor Beat from trading and investing platform eToro notes. A total of 30% of investors favored cash allocations while 25% preferred increasing investments in growth-sector stocks and 19% favored investments in commodities. "Current interest rates have made cash more useful, but they have not removed the need to put money to work," eToro's Dan Moczulski says in a note. ([email protected])0652 ET - Thailand's inflation print for July doesn't move the needle on monetary policy, as growth considerations still outweigh price concerns, HSBC economists say. The outlook for inflation remains contained, with import competition capping price pressures, Aris Dacanay and Akiko Kitamura say in a note. HSBC continues to expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates at 1.00% until at least end-2027, but there is one risk worth monitoring: data centers. So far, inflationary pressures from Thailand's massive data-center buildout have yet to materialize as facilities have yet to come online. But once they do, the sites will likely demand a substantial amount of Thailand's electricity generation and water supply, posing an upside risk to utility fees, and potentially building the case for a BOT adjustment. ([email protected])